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  1. #1
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    Race For Home Field Advantage

    We play Colorado for 2 and then Baltimore for 3.
    A's (1.5 Back) play Angels for 3, then Mariners for 3
    Tigers (2.5 Back) play Minnesota for 3, then the Marlins for 3

    We play the toughest competition, but we do have the 1.5 game advantage.

    The Tigers could/should win 5/6. But they don't seem to be playing too well considering the trouble they just had against the White Sox.
    The A's are on a roll, but the Angels are playing great too, that should be a good series and then they should have an easy time against the mariners.

    Colorado is great at home, and Baltimore is going to want to screw us like they did two years ago.

    How do you guys think this plays out?

  2. #2
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    I don't know how the tie breakers play out and can't seem to find it. Does anyone know what would happen if we tie with the A's/Detroit?

  3. #3
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    Just a SWAG, but I'd assume that you'd look first at the head-to-head match ups. Next up could be team vs division. Coin flips as tie breakers have been eliminated.

    Sox lost the season series to DET (4-3) but are even with OAK (3-3). They lead OAK in the "team vs Division" category (43-30 vs 41-29) though that could change in the last week of the season for the same reason that the Sox lead could shrink.

    OAK is lined up to face both Weaver (Wed) and Felix (Sun) so those two games could be difficult to win. Add in the fact that they have not had a day off since 9/9, they've clinched the division, and they finish on the road for all six games and they could easily go 3-3.

    DET has, as you say, a very easy schedule. They have to give at least nominal attention to closing out the division (magic number is 2) but with a very soft schedule I suspect they'll be much more focused on injury prevention and rest for the playoffs. Moreover, if the Sox win just two of their remaining five games then the Tigers would have to win all six just to forge a tie. The odds seem too long to take the risk.

  4. #4
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    After a few minutes of googling ("MLB tie breaker rules"), I found this at MLB.com

    Determining Home-Field Advantage in Two-Team Tiebreakers

    1. Head-to-head winning percentage during the 2013 regular season.
    2. Higher winning percentage in intradivision games.
    3. Higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games.
    4. Higher winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game, provided that such additional game was not between the two tied clubs. Continue to go back one intraleague game at a time until the tie has been broken.
    The Sox are even with OAK in the season series but currently lead on tie breaker #2. In the second half, the Sox are 41-26 against the AL and OAK is 40-24. In game 81, the Sox beat TOR while OAK played an NL team that does not help them. Their most recent AL game prior to that was a loss. It appears that the Sox currently lead tie breakers 3 and 4.

  5. #5
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    I think we go 3 and 2.
    Oakland will go 3 and 3
    Detroit will go 5 and 1

    So I think we'll barely edge Detroit out for the #1 seed in the AL.
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  6. #6
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    Hm...

    OAK won last night and I'm not sure I see them going 2-3 the rest of the way to make that work. The Mariners rearranged their rotation to match up Felix against Colon; what once looked like a slam dunk for OAK will be considerably tougher (though Felix is on a negative run). It may all come down to the last day of the season for them where two relatively young kids face each other in a complete toss up. The Mariners' kid is off to a pretty impressive start and runs may be hard to come by for the stronger offensive lineup from OAK. 2-3 or 3-2 makes sense.

    For the Sox, the pitching matchups are pretty favorable. Lackey vs Chatwood and Peavy vs Oswalt (0-6, 7+ ERA) should be quick wins. Buchholz vs Feldman is not as favorable unless Clay does a better job staying on top of the ball than he's done since his return; he's been prone to HR in the past (save for 2010) and could get into trouble in BAL. Lester vs Chen tips in our favor considering their respective performances of late. Lackey vs Tillman could be a toss up. 3-2 or 4-1 depending on the Buchholz start.

    With a 1 game lead, the Sox have to lose two more games than the As (the Sox currently lead on all the tie breakers after head-to-head) to lose their position. 5-0 As and 3-2 Sox, 4-1 As and 2-3 Sox, 3-2 As and 1-4 Sox... they all seem pretty unlikely.

  7. #7
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    Not looking good tonight. If we end up loosing tonight and the A's can pull it out, then it is a complete toss up.

  8. #8
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    At least the A's lost. 1 game up with 4 to play.

  9. #9
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    None of the tiebreakers against Oakland would go their way, so if the Red Sox are to be the top seed in the American League, they have to hold their one-game lead over the Athletics. That explains why they're using their best five starters down the stretch. Farrell wants home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

    "By the way we play at home and the way our guys embrace our environment, it would be a very good thing," he said.
    Boston.com

    The first line is a little misleading. By "don't go their way" they mean that they don't win on the tie breakers but they would not lose until the fourth tie breaker. I really didn't bother to analyze the scenarios earlier but the end result is that any situation that results in a tie for the best record in the AL also produces a tie the second and third tie-breakers. I misunderstood the way the fourth tie breaker is calculated and, by virtue of winning one more game than the Sox in the last four games played, the A's would end up with an advantage in "second half intra-league record."

  10. #10
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    Well 2 games up with 3 to play...so I'm assuming that effectively makes the magic number 1 as far as attaining home field throughout. (Red Sox win or Oakland loss.)

    I guess the Tigers are technically still in it. IIRC, they're 3 back with 3 to play, and own the head-to-head tiebreaker versus the Red Sox.
    Last edited by goshhhjosh; 09-26-2013 at 11:18 AM.

  11. #11
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    It's 2. If we win 1 game and the A's sweep their series we are tied, and the A's own the tiebreaker.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by -Lavigne43- View Post
    It's 2. If we win 1 game and the A's sweep their series we are tied, and the A's own the tiebreaker.
    The tiebreaker being the fact that the A's would have the better intradivision winning percentage?

  13. #13
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    I believe it's 2nd half intradivision. We have a 1 game lead in that now, so if the A's tie us they pull ahead by a game.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by -Lavigne43- View Post
    I believe it's 2nd half intradivision. We have a 1 game lead in that now, so if the A's tie us they pull ahead by a game.
    Second half intraleague. The second half intraleague works itself out to the last 71 games against AL opponents. Whatever scenario puts the teams tied for best record gives OAK a two or three game advantage in their last 71 games against the AL.

  15. #15
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    Yeah, intraleague. I copied his intradivision without thinking about what I was typing. Beat the O's twice and we get it regardless of what the A's do. Detroit is out, they're not going to pass us and the A's.

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