I'd like to hear some opinions about this. I've been thinking about this idea for years now, and I wanted to hear why it's never done.
The situation: Your team is losing by 2 touchdowns late in the 4th quarter. For clarity's sake, let's say the score is 24-10. (For the rest of this post, I'm going to assume the trailing team will score 2 touchdowns in the remainder of the 4th quarter.)
Your team then scores a touchdown to make it 24-16. It seems obvious to me that the team needs to go for 2 right now. Yet I never see anybody do it.
If you go for 2 and make it, you'll be down by 6. Assuming you get the second touchdown later, you can kick the PAT then to win 25-24.
Searching around the web, I found 2 point conversion percentages to be about 48% successful in the past decade. I'm going to round that up to 50% so the numbers are easier to work with. If you are successful on 2 point conversions half the time, that means you will successfully score the first 2 point conversion and win 25-24 50% of the time.
Now, just because you miss the 2 point conversion it doesn't mean you lose. You'll be losing 24-16 and can still tie the game with a 2 point conversion after the second touchdown. The percentage that you miss the first 2 pointer and get the second 2 pointer is 25%.
Your team loses if you fail to get 2 points after either touchdown. The chances of failing twice in a row is 25%.
Using this strategy, your team wins 50% of the time, goes to OT 25% of the time, and loses 25% of the time.
In fact, as long as the true percentage of successfully completing the 2 point conversion is greater than 38%, this strategy works. It would be 38% chance to win. The chance to lose would be (1-0.38)(1-0.38)= 38%.
I'd like to hear your comments why no teams in the NFL have realized this. Am I just crazy? I'll answer any questions in case I wasn't clear enough.