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  1. #1
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    Game 3: Lackey or Peavy?

    Let's just say the Red Sox make the playoffs (*knocks on wood*) and assume Buchholz and Lester pitch games 1 and 2. Then there is a game 3. We know Doubront or Dempster aren't starting that game, so it's either Lackey or Peavy. I think some people would say it is easy to say Lackey. However, Lackey just never seems to get any run support and has a losing record to show for it. On the other hand, Peavy has been dealing as of late and seems to bring a good energy to the club on the day he pitches. Perhaps his competitiveness rubs off on the players (not saying Lackey isn't competitive). In other words, I personally think this is a tougher decision than it looks.

    So if you were John Farrell, who would start game 3?

  2. #2
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    You can't assume that Buchholz will get a start. I imagine a number of things will go into that decision. Is he healthy? Os the stuff we saw at the beginning of the year still there? If he's not ready, then Lackey gets game 2 and Peavy game 3.

  3. #3
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    Peavy goes cause Lackey is better at shutting down our own offense

    On a serious note, I highly doubt Buchholz can repeat what he's done at the beginning of the season. Given how our top-3 have pitched lately, he may get only game 4 or stay in bullpen if we go to a 3-man rotation.

  4. #4
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    Lackey should get the ball for game 1. He has been our best pitcher really

  5. #5
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    then Peavy then Lester. Thats assuming Clay isnt in the fold by then

  6. #6
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    I don't believe in Buchholz until he's back and has a couple of good starts. Without CB I'd go:

    Peavy
    Lester
    Lackey

    With CB:

    Buchholz
    Lester
    Peavy


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I don't believe in Buchholz until he's back and has a couple of good starts.
    I completely agree. I'm dubious until he's been on the mound for a while. He's having an abbreviated second ST and I don't love the results so far. I'm also uncertain of how deep he can go into games because there's not a ton of time to build arm strength. (Farrell may actually have to leave him in a game in which he flames out just to build up arm strength).

    I also really like Lester NOT going #1. My alternate theory to Lester's 2011-12 demise has to do with him trying to take the mantle of "the ace." I respect him for standing up and trying not only to take some responsibility for what happened into 9/11 but also attempting to lead the way back. Unfortunately I think he's uncomfortable in that role. He thrived under bigger personalities leading the way (e.g., Schilling, Beckett) and I'm wondering if he's just more comfortable with a less visible (but no less important) role.

    The one additional factor that must be considered is WHERE the series starts. The best record in the AL is still up for grabs given the relative strengths of schedules for the playoff contenders. What if the Sox start the playoffs on the road? I might be tempted to put Lackey on the mound earlier if the series started in OAK (where neither team is likely to score a lot) than BOS.

    Given the current situation, I agree that Peavy, Lester, and Lackey make the most sense. I might even stick with that with Buchholz returning. It'd be a bigger tossup for me slotting Doubront and Buchholz after that; the decision would have a lot to do with how they close out the season and the position of the series. Having Clay pitch a series finale would not be a bad thing... and it wouldn't hurt having him start the next series if they were to pull out a 3-1 win. (I know that rotations are often shortened in the playoffs but I would consider using all 5 in the ALDS).

  8. #8
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    I'd go with Peavy for Game 3.
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I don't believe in Buchholz until he's back and has a couple of good starts. Without CB I'd go:

    Peavy
    Lester
    Lackey

    With CB:

    Buchholz
    Lester
    Peavy
    Peavy over Lackey huh?? thats interesting.

  10. #10
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    I like that Peavy gets deep into games. With his hr issues I'd try to maneuver it so he pitches at Oak/TB, or at home if we face the Rangers. Who knows what we get from Clay, we've seen plenty of inconsistency from him in the past, with the long layoff who knows. Lackey has pretty big home/road splits, and has a high hr rate too. If we face Texas with HFA I'd make sure Peavy and Lackey pitch the first two games at home.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by -Lavigne43- View Post
    I like that Peavy gets deep into games. With his hr issues I'd try to maneuver it so he pitches at Oak/TB, or at home if we face the Rangers. Who knows what we get from Clay, we've seen plenty of inconsistency from him in the past, with the long layoff who knows. Lackey has pretty big home/road splits, and has a high hr rate too. If we face Texas with HFA I'd make sure Peavy and Lackey pitch the first two games at home.
    You have to matchup. Peavy is not great vs. lefties, if the team we play game 1 of the ALDS is stacked with lefties, you have to start Lester.

    It all depends and is to early to call at this point. We need to see how the rest of the season plays out and how everyone finishes up.

  12. #12
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    I know everyone is worried about Clay having a layoff and his rehab starts being a little iffy. I'm going to point out 2 things. 1, rehab starts never look good because the pitchers are just trying to work out kinks, which can mean they arent going to the max on their pitches. 2, you dont just go 9-0. He started off the year insane, thats not just a fluke. He's gonna be our best option when he comes back. Give him a couple starts to get back into it again. He'll have a 7 inning shutout before the season is out, watch.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redsox07Champs View Post
    I know everyone is worried about Clay having a layoff and his rehab starts being a little iffy. I'm going to point out 2 things. 1, rehab starts never look good because the pitchers are just trying to work out kinks, which can mean they arent going to the max on their pitches. 2, you dont just go 9-0. He started off the year insane, thats not just a fluke. He's gonna be our best option when he comes back. Give him a couple starts to get back into it again. He'll have a 7 inning shutout before the season is out, watch.
    Sorry, that's just fiction that you made up because you want to believe Buchholz is going to be awesome or because you have a jersey. How about these rehab lines?

    Rehab: 6.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 4K
    Rehab: 6.0IP, 7H, 2R, 1ER, 3BB, 4K
    Return: 6.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2BB, 2K

    Notice any correlation? That'd be Roy Halladay returning from shoulder surgery earlier this year. Those rehab starts don't look like he was holding back much.

    Then there's Jered Weaver, who skipped rehabs all together and came back to MLB this way:

    6.0IP, 5H, 1ER, 0BB, 7K
    6.0IP, 6H, 3R, 1ER, 1BB, 5K


    Then there's Clay. He was expected to get to 3IP or 45-50 pitches in his first rehab. Then the target was 50-60 pitches in his second rehab (no IP target but 4IP was likely). The final "tuneup" was 75-80. How'd he do?

    0.2IP, 3R, 1ER, 3BB, 1K, 34 pitches (3 errors)
    3.1IP, 7H, 1R, 0BB, 2K, 51 pitches
    3.2IP, 4H, 2R, 2BB, 5K, 71 pitches

    Call me uninspired. He was low on the IP targets every time because he couldn't get out of innings. A guy who pitches to contact can have those kinds of results, especially when the defense doesn't do its job (game 1). But not escaping the first inning in a short-season A- game? Um, no. Even if I give him a mulligan on the first outing, the second two rehabs are a little disconcerting. 20 additional pitches got him 1 more out with a AAA playoff team. I guess it's trending in the right direction but I can't pretend to be inspired.

    Sorry, RS07, but there is room for skepticism in Clay's rehab starts. Until he ACTUALLY has "a 7 inning shutout before the season is out" we can harbor our doubts. (BTW, the comments in here were along the lines of giving him a top spot in the rotation IF he proves himself the rest of the way which is pretty much what you seem to say).
    Last edited by RedSoxtober; 09-09-2013 at 11:47 AM.

  14. #14
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    BTW, RS07C, should you care, Buchholz' manager seems to have expectations MUCH lower than you do.

    "Our goal going through the remainder of the month would be to not only stretch him out but to see if there's a certain dependability we'll get from him," manager John Farrell said earlier this week. "We really can't expect that he'll come back and pitch to the form [he had]. We're hopeful we get a guy who is close to what he was prior to the injury. It would be an additional lift to this rotation."
    The GOALS are (a) stretch him out and (b) see if there is a certain dependability. Yes, I'm sure they're downplaying things for a number of reasons but let's face it, the goals are pretty simple, almost like Spring Training expectations, and they are that way for a reason.

    With any luck he'll respond like the last Sox regular who missed time while a daughter was born.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I don't believe in Buchholz until he's back and has a couple of good starts. Without CB I'd go:

    Peavy
    Lester
    Lackey

    With CB:

    Buchholz
    Lester
    Peavy
    Two weeks, and it's much easier to place these guys IMO:

    Lester
    Buchholz
    Lackey
    Peavy

    Lester's 2nd half minus one start has been great - and has playoff experience

    Buchholz's command and stamina are not a given yet, but he's flashed a few times - the pen should be over worked with Buchholz being sandwiched by Lester and Lackey

    Lackey has lots of playoff experience, and is looking good

    Peavy appears to be going through either a dead arm period, or futzing with his delivery has messed him up. He looks slow and flat out there. He's the most likely to fail, but we have two solid long guys to take over if needed.

    Best case the Indians get in and win a one game playoff, and we expunge them quickly while Detroit takes it to the limit to grapple with Oakland. We get extra rest, and our rotation is lined up and theirs isn't. Detroit to me is the toughest team we need to beat to win it.

    The NL team will have to deal with the DH up to 4 times, and if facing the Sox, a very deep rotation backed by two long guys that can pitch 3-4 innings w/o blowing up and a great closer, and 3 OK set-up guys, and a patient line-up that's BB heavy even in the bottom 3rd. I like it. All the hot NL teams seem to be cooling as well.

    Gotta like a bridge team winning you know...


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

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