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  1. #1
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    Week one....Stone Cold Lock-s

    Superior team at home with the better QB is what I look at early on. Nobody is beat up yet, nobody is in a double anything or coming off anything.

    So we look at a weak team on the road. with a subpar QB.

    BINGO!....Raiders at Indy.

    I did mention...Stone Cold Lock. There is no game on the board as lopsided as that one. I'd bet my Jimmy Brown mint condition 1958 rookie card on it.

    The Raiders stand no chance of any kind, the power could go out() and they still get pummeled.

    Week two is just as one sided, the Pats will be all over the hapless Jets. Yes the home team with the stud QB....easily.

    Week three it's the silver and black again, this time up in Denver on a Monday night. This might be the easiest of the three. Poor Raiders

    Week four

    Now we start seeing situations that need to be looked at, some study involved.
    Last edited by CCRider; 08-27-2013 at 10:20 PM.

  2. #2
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    I have no idea what I'll bet on but...

    TB -3.5 at Jets looks easy.

    Bal -8 at DEN is interesting.

    Patriots giving 11 to the Bills? Wish I had got on that when it was 9.5. It'll only get worse. I know some idiot is starting supposedly but maybe something changes, so I'll stay away. 11 point home dog is pretty unusual.

    Chargers are the other home dog against HOU and I won't touch that either.

    Cardinals +4.5 at STL is the one I think I like most. Along with Bengals +3 at CHI.

    I think ARI and CIN win those games.

    DET is giving 5 at home against MIN too.

    Lots of interesting options for early lines.

    Honestly I know you're talking about OAK being terrible but if I generally am a sucker for a big moneyline dog and my team would be OAK.

    If Pryor starts it could end up being a complete joke or maybe something crazy could happen, even though that's a terrible team.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCRider View Post
    Superior team at home with the better QB is what I look at early on. Nobody is beat up yet, nobody is in a double anything or coming off anything.

    So we look at a weak team on the road. with a subpar QB.

    BINGO!....Raiders at Indy.

    I did mention...Stone Cold Lock. There is no game on the board as lopsided as that one. I'd bet my Jimmy Brown mint condition 1958 rookie card on it.

    The Raiders stand no chance of any kind, the power could go out() and they still get pummeled.

    Week two is just as one sided, the Pats will be all over the hapless Jets. Yes the home team with the stud QB....easily.

    Week three it's the silver and black again, this time up in Denver on a Monday night. This might be the easiest of the three. Poor Raiders

    Week four

    Now we start seeing situations that need to be looked at, some study involved.
    As bad as Raiders @ Denver will be, Jax @ Seattle I think will be even more lopsided in week 3. At least Payton Manning's audibles at the line of scrimmage will run down the clock giving the Raiders a chance to give up fewer than 40 pts.
    Blogging: Never before have so many people with so little to say said so much to so few.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by NormSizedMidget View Post
    I have no idea what I'll bet on but...

    TB -3.5 at Jets looks easy.

    Bal -8 at DEN is interesting.

    Patriots giving 11 to the Bills? Wish I had got on that when it was 9.5. It'll only get worse. I know some idiot is starting supposedly but maybe something changes, so I'll stay away. 11 point home dog is pretty unusual.

    Chargers are the other home dog against HOU and I won't touch that either.

    Cardinals +4.5 at STL is the one I think I like most. Along with Bengals +3 at CHI.

    I think ARI and CIN win those games.

    DET is giving 5 at home against MIN too.

    Lots of interesting options for early lines.

    Honestly I know you're talking about OAK being terrible but if I generally am a sucker for a big moneyline dog and my team would be OAK.

    If Pryor starts it could end up being a complete joke or maybe something crazy could happen, even though that's a terrible team.
    I haven't sat down with all my trends/stats and tried to chart out a course yet. I'll be doing that this weekend. Those three just jumped out at me, too good to not step out on. No study involved.

    Just a little advice....the strongest play of them all is a small home dog. Not a home fav, road fav or road dog. I know I took three home favs there but I simply had to. Play a lot of attention to what role a team is in that week, it will be one of those four.
    Last edited by CCRider; 08-27-2013 at 10:49 PM.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackjack_119 View Post
    As bad as Raiders @ Denver will be, Jax @ Seattle I think will be even more lopsided in week 3. At least Payton Manning's audibles at the line of scrimmage will run down the clock giving the Raiders a chance to give up fewer than 40 pts.
    I looked at that game also. I don't like the fact the Niners are up next. Will the Hawks be over looking the lowly Jags? I am talking about the number.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCRider View Post
    I haven't sat down with all my trends/stats and tried to chart out a course yet. I'll be doing that this weekend. Those three just jumped out at me, too good to not step out on. No study involved.

    Just a little advice....the strongest play of them all is a small home dog. Not a home fav, road fav or road dog. I know I took three home favs there but I simply had to.
    I try and bet home dogs when I can, especially ones like you said. You just don't see a ton of them. HOU at SD +3.5 I think it was was one. But I don't like that much. I actually tend to know less about AFC teams especially ones I never watch, aka SD and HOU, def two of them.

    I don't have any system or too many rules. I almost never bet GB unless it's pure desperation and that's gotten me in trouble. I refuse to bet on Patriots games 99% of the time. It used to be just against but now I've bet them to cover what feels like a half dozen times and they find a way to feel like they easily won without covering.

    I play a lot of gut instinct games. Thinking a team will rebound after a tough loss or a hangover after a big win.

    I don't like betting TNF or MNF but I do it way too much just to have a couple bucks on a game I'm not that excited for.

    Last year was my best year of NFL ever. I put money (online) in week one, bet all year, never re-upped. I was at just over 6x that investment by the SB where I got murdered prop betting. I won a bunch of it getting hot during March Madness and ran before I did anything else stupid.

    I had a better run once about 6 years ago or so but that was college where I took a team on the over all year and couldn't lose.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCRider View Post
    I looked at that game also. I don't like the fact the Niners are up next. Will the Hawks be over looking the lowly Jags? I am talking about the number.
    That's the kind of stuff that goes overlooked too often for sure.

    I have a hard time laying money on huge favorites in games like that. Sometimes they have the game in hand all game and somehow just barely miss covering. It drives me insane.

    I've gotten in the habit of more money lines lately. Then I don't complain about a meaningless score late, win or lose.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by NormSizedMidget View Post
    I try and bet home dogs when I can, especially ones like you said. You just don't see a ton of them. HOU at SD +3.5 I think it was was one. But I don't like that much. I actually tend to know less about AFC teams especially ones I never watch, aka SD and HOU, def two of them.

    I don't have any system or too many rules. I almost never bet GB unless it's pure desperation and that's gotten me in trouble. I refuse to bet on Patriots games 99% of the time. It used to be just against but now I've bet them to cover what feels like a half dozen times and they find a way to feel like they easily won without covering.

    I play a lot of gut instinct games. Thinking a team will rebound after a tough loss or a hangover after a big win.

    I don't like betting TNF or MNF but I do it way too much just to have a couple bucks on a game I'm not that excited for.

    Last year was my best year of NFL ever. I put money (online) in week one, bet all year, never re-upped. I was at just over 6x that investment by the SB where I got murdered prop betting. I won a bunch of it getting hot during March Madness and ran before I did anything else stupid.

    I had a better run once about 6 years ago or so but that was college where I took a team on the over all year and couldn't lose.
    I play "spots" teams are in where they either do well in or suck in, that's were info and study comes into play, you cannot wing this, there really is a science to it and if you plan on really racking in the $$$$$$$$$ you will need to be a student of that science. You cannot play teams you like or dislike or gut feelings, that's if you are serious about making $$$$$$$$$$$$.

    I do realize some just wanna have a little juice on a game to make it interesting...cool. And it really is very time consuming to take it further and become a serious player.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by NormSizedMidget View Post
    That's the kind of stuff that goes overlooked too often for sure.

    I have a hard time laying money on huge favorites in games like that. Sometimes they have the game in hand all game and somehow just barely miss covering. It drives me insane.

    I've gotten in the habit of more money lines lately. Then I don't complain about a meaningless score late, win or lose.
    Division games are huge in the NFL. They actually can effect a three week period. The before/the game/the after. Those games tend to be more physical. So what happens next week when the winner goes on the road vs a weak opponet, yep they wanna take it easy/mend. All that stuff has to be taken into consideration.

    I don't mess around with money lines or parlays.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCRider View Post
    I play "spots" teams are in where they either do well in or suck in, that's were info and study comes into play, you cannot wing this, there really is a science to it and if you plan on really racking in the $$$$$$$$$ you will need to be a student of that science. You cannot play teams you like or dislike or gut feelings, that's if you are serious about making $$$$$$$$$$$$.

    I do realize some just wanna have a little juice on a game to make it interesting...cool. And it really is very time consuming to take it further and become a serious player.
    I don't bet on teams I like or dislike. My gut feelings are more than just a gut feeling, they're based on things. But not some set theory of winning that I put the teams into and it tells me the one to pick.

    I generally take it seriously other than a game here and there in prime time that I throw a few on because I want some added reason to watch.

    Don't get me wrong here...

    I went 7-2 money lining dogs and 2 spread bets, in the pre season.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCRider View Post
    Division games are huge in the NFL. They actually can effect a three week period. The before/the game/the after. Those games tend to be more physical. So what happens next week when the winner goes on the road vs a weak opponet, yep they wanna take it easy/mend. All that stuff has to be taken into consideration.

    I don't mess around with money lines or parlays.
    I've had success finding one of the bigger ML's almost every other week or so. Not sure if it's paying off for me a ton but I know I ain't losing.

    I play a parlay every once in a while out of boredom but nothing more.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by NormSizedMidget View Post
    I don't bet on teams I like or dislike. My gut feelings are more than just a gut feeling, they're based on things. But not some set theory of winning that I put the teams into and it tells me the one to pick.

    I generally take it seriously other than a game here and there in prime time that I throw a few on because I want some added reason to watch.

    Don't get me wrong here...

    I went 7-2 money lining dogs and 2 spread bets, in the pre season.
    Didn't mean to come off as Reverend CC there with my preaching. I just want everyone to win it sucks losing, I know I did it for years. It took time to finally figure it out.

    I gotcha bro, good luck and if ya need any help....cool

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by CCRider View Post
    Didn't mean to come off as Reverend CC there with my preaching. I just want everyone to win it sucks losing, I know I did it for years. It took time to finally figure it out.

    I gotcha bro, good luck and if ya need any help....cool
    I know how to get a hold of ya lol

  14. #14
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    Do ML. Honestly the easiest way to make a good profit. Spread is very difficult to predict (especially in blowout games when a team quits in the 4th) unless you have a system.

    Does anyone remember: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/85...k-9-nfl-season

    Parlaying almost all the faves payed off big time that week. I don't really need to claim how much I won (no one really cares on the internet anyways), but people were raking in that week.

  15. #15
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    THU, SEP 5
    Baltimore at Denver

    SUN, SEP 8
    New England at Buffalo
    Cincinnati at Chicago
    Miami at Cleveland
    Atlanta at New Orleans
    Tampa Bay at NY Jets
    Tennessee at Pittsburgh
    Minnesota at Detroit
    Oakland at Indianapolis
    Seattle at Carolina
    Kansas City at Jacksonville
    Arizona at St. Louis
    Green Bay at San Francisco
    NY Giants at Dallas

    MON, SEP 9
    Philadelphia at Washington (if RGIII plays)
    Houston at San Diego

    I haven't placed bets yet, only looked at some opening lines.

    Locks: Patriots, Chicago, Texans & NO Saints

    I really like the Saints for week 1, maybe a 4 unit play since they're paying good for a favorite. Really like the Texans as well, depending on how much I'm up/down I may bet a couple units on them. Philly might be a decent underdog pick if RGIII is out. Jets could be a decent underdog pick as well. Bears at home are tough to beat and they're getting good odds; Bengals are not THAT good.
    Last edited by John Walls Era; 08-28-2013 at 02:55 AM.

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