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  1. #1
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    The Draft is Almost HERE!!

    The Draft is almost upon us!! This year is a very interesting year, because of the college arms and lack of prep talent in the top half of the draft. This draft will be very telling. It will let us know if the the front office thinks we are 1 or 2 years away from being very competitive, or if we are 3 to 5 years away. It could also tell us if the Joe Mauer (CATCHER) era is ending, or if we think we can use him for another 5 years. I am going to go through the top 5 guys who will realistically be there at #4. This means Gray and Appel are out!

    Kohl Stewart RHP
    6'3" 185
    St Pius TX (HS)

    Kohl is who I don't want us going for even though he is a stud. He has a mid 90's fastball, a hard over hand curve and a solid change. His fastball is head and shoulders above the other offerings, but that is what you expect with a 2 sport stand out. Both his Curve and Change could develop into plus pitches if he sticks with baseball. The reason why I am not sold on Kohl isn't his talent, although he is more of a thrower right now than a pitcher, but his very promising football career at Texas A&M. Sitting behind Jonny Football for a year before he can take over the team as the starter along with playing baseball for the Aggies I think will be to hard for him to turn down. I don't want our pick wasted.

    Kris Bryant 3B, 1B, OF
    6'5" 230
    University of San Diago

    Kris is a Polished collegiate hitter who could hit for average and for power, but will likely strike out a lot. His defense is solid, with a little bit below average range. Should be able to play at 3rd but 1st is where I see his future. He has a smooth stroke that allows him to use all fields and hit for power to all fields. His down fall isn't anything a 6'5" kid should be worried about and that is his foot speed. He isn't fast, although athletic isn't going to swipe any bags. Twins may look this way if next year we think we can compete.

    Sean Manaea LHP
    6'5" 235
    Indiana State

    Sean was a stud in the cape cod league this year. No one could touch him. He was hitting spots with a 96mph fast ball with a lot of late life. His two other offerings are a true change and a slide piece. His slider is his out pitch but doesn't have the ability to control it yet. As for his change it could be deadly when it develops, and in the Twins system known for great change ups it will. He is a big strong kid who projects well. His spring hasn't gone the way he would like, but personally I think he will be the pick come June 6th

    Braden Shipley RHP
    6'3" 185
    Nevada University

    Braden Is a fun pick for me because we share the same 1st name it not being a common name I like him. I think he has the stuff to be a good pitcher with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's did hit 97 on the gun a few times. He also has a plus slider that he can use in almost any count. Again has a show me change. The strange thing about Braden was the fact that he is a convert to pitching. His sophomore year was his first on the bump. With that in mind he could just be starting to tap his potential.

    Reese McGuire C/3B
    6'1" 190 Kentwood (HS)
    Reese intrigues me because he is a very good prospect that may help us fill up our farm system even more then his talent alone, And talent he does have! Very polished defensive catcher for coming from the prep ranks. Very good arm and understands the game. His hitting is all about his potential. He very well could be a power hitting catcher for a long time. The reason why he may help us stock pile is it is known that he is sign-able. So if the twins at 4 want to take a kid and pay him below slot we may be able to go after some "Unsignables" later and give them offers other teams wouldn't be able to. Also it is known that the Twins have been on this kid of a while. Don't be shocked if the Twins pull the trigger on him.



    Kohl Stewart
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMhZQJxcCAY (baseball)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noajEqSglFY (Football)

    Kris Bryant
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyUdTJFzEEY

    Sean Manaea
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB61-cWCFzM

    Braden Shipley
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsM_vWsgUN4
    Reese McGuire
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rff-CNeKd-A

  2. #2
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    I've liked Manaea for a long time. He has great stuff.

  3. #3
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    Manaea was just pulled from his start the other day. He has had injury issues all year and his velocity has been in the high 80's most of the year. He's not pitcing anything like he was in the Cape Cod league last year when he dominated. He might still have that kind of velocity, but there's a chance it was a mirage. If Manaea falls, and he likely will because of injuries and inconsistancy, he may go back to school to improve his draft posiiton in 2014. He is only a JR.

    Bryant could be a stud and a fast riser. After Appel and Gray he certainly does seem to be the best value, though he isn't projected to get out of the top 3.

    Stewart actually is the guy I want if the top 3 are gone. While he is commited to Texas A&M, I doubt he will go unless he is drafted outside the top 10. He would be foolish to pass on that kind of money. While he is a good QB and will be behind Johnny Manziel, he likely will be WAY behind Johnny Manziel. A&M also got commits from Matt Davis who is a much more highly rated QB along with Kenny Hill who was in last years recruit class. For 2014 they are also in the mix for Kyle Allen, the nations #5 prep QB. Stewart would certainly be behind Davis and Hill, there's a better than 50-50 chance he would never take a meaningful snap at A&M.

    Shipley looks like a decent arm, I'd take him if the Twins were picking in the 5-10 range. I don't think he quite has the electric stuff of the other pitchers ranked higher than him.

    I don't want anything to do with a HS catcher. There hasn't been one above average MLB catcher drafted out of HS since Mauer in 2001 and McCann in 2002. I think they have so much to focus on defensively and about calling a game that their offensive talents don't develop well. They seem to be the biggest busts in every draft. Besides, if I'm picking offense at #4, I want the best bat period. I don't want to pick someone just because they play catcher.

    Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows are the GA HS OF's that other people peg for top 12 picks. Frazier has a ton of power but may have strikeout issues. Meadows has a ton of tools but hasn't put them all to use yet. I like Frazier better than Meadows but I'd prefer to draft neither.

    Colin Moran is a fast rising college 3B. He is perhaps the best hitter in the draft but people think he will need to move to 1B. He also has not flashed much power, so you may be looking at a James Loney or Sean Casey. To me, if you are going after a guy like this, you better be sure he'll pan out because a corner infielder with little power better be one of the best hitters in the league.

    If Appel, Gray and Bryant are off the board, Stewart is my pick. I don't think signing him will be a huge issue, you may have to go over slot but probably not by much. According to most scouts, he has the most upside and the Twins could certainly use more top of the rotation arms. If for some reason he doesn't sign, though I have full confidence he will, the Twins would be awarded the 5th pick in next year's draft and considering I don't much like the talent at the top this year, I don't think that's entirely a bad thing.

    On a side note, Appel, Bryant, Manaea, Meadows and Moran are all Scott Boras clients. Stewart has been in contact with Boras but his advisor is unknown. Considering that Boras likely will have 5-6 of the top 10 picks, don't expect any of them to sign early. He'll wait for his first player picked to sign to make sure the guys picked below him can maximize their contracts. Luckily the signing deadline got moved up last year.
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 05-22-2013 at 12:40 PM.

  4. #4
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    Ha, I didn't mean to rip on everyone's prospects above, I do love the draft.

    Last year the Astros surprisingly signed Carlos Correa and were able pay him underslot. By doing that they had money to sign a couple harder to sign guys in the suplemental/2nd round. They seemed to like that stratagy and I hope they do it again, which may be the only way the Twins could snag one of Appel, Gray or Bryant.

    I don't like that stratagy for the Twins, as I mentioned above, I'm not high on a lot of players at the top of the draft this year, so I think they need to grab Stewart who nearly all view as the 4th best prospect. The Twins already have a ton of prospects all over everyone's top 100 list. If they have to pick between one super-star top 25 prospect or two prospects in the 60-100 range, they should absolutely go for the top 25 guy. It needs to be about quality not quantity right now.

  5. #5
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    What is the significance of the Type 1 Diabetes in Stewart? I mean could it really impact his draft stock??? What one of the top 3 (Appel, Grey, and Bryant) has the best chance of falling to us at 4?? I really do not want anymore high school OFers, and I don't think either one of the 2 top guys is worth a top 7 pick..

    I think Stewart will be the 1st prep player taken, followed closely by Trey Ball.. BEST BASEBALL NAME EVER!!

  6. #6
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    pitching... Pitching... PITCHING!!!! Unless there is another Bryce Harper or Mike Trout out there which there isn't so please just grab pitchers. Trust our scouting and take the pitcher they like best at #4.
    SOMEONE SAID BIG BIRD!?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bray991 View Post
    What is the significance of the Type 1 Diabetes in Stewart? I mean could it really impact his draft stock??? What one of the top 3 (Appel, Grey, and Bryant) has the best chance of falling to us at 4??
    Hard to way which one would fall. The Cubs don't seem to hide the fact that they'll take a pitcher. The Astros are the wild card. Maybe they do go underslot again and surprise people. If they take someone other than the big three, the Cubs will choose Gray or Appel. I think the Cubs pick Appel as they view him as the better arm and they don't have Boras/budget issues. The Rockies then would have the choice between Gray and Bryant. They need pitching but they may have already fallen in love with Bryant's bat.

    Of course if the Cubs picked Gray instead of Appel, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockies didn't want to deal with the high demands of Appel. Though I don't know how Boras would work those negotiations seeing as he represents both Appel and Bryant.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Manaea was just pulled from his start the other day. He has had injury issues all year and his velocity has been in the high 80's most of the year. He's not pitcing anything like he was in the Cape Cod league last year when he dominated. He might still have that kind of velocity, but there's a chance it was a mirage. If Manaea falls, and he likely will because of injuries and inconsistancy, he may go back to school to improve his draft posiiton in 2014. He is only a JR.

    Bryant could be a stud and a fast riser. After Appel and Gray he certainly does seem to be the best value, though he isn't projected to get out of the top 3.

    Stewart actually is the guy I want if the top 3 are gone. While he is commited to Texas A&M, I doubt he will go unless he is drafted outside the top 10. He would be foolish to pass on that kind of money. While he is a good QB and will be behind Johnny Manziel, he likely will be WAY behind Johnny Manziel. A&M also got commits from Matt Davis who is a much more highly rated QB along with Kenny Hill who was in last years recruit class. For 2014 they are also in the mix for Kyle Allen, the nations #5 prep QB. Stewart would certainly be behind Davis and Hill, there's a better than 50-50 chance he would never take a meaningful snap at A&M.

    Shipley looks like a decent arm, I'd take him if the Twins were picking in the 5-10 range. I don't think he quite has the electric stuff of the other pitchers ranked higher than him.

    I don't want anything to do with a HS catcher. There hasn't been one above average MLB catcher drafted out of HS since Mauer in 2001 and McCann in 2002. I think they have so much to focus on defensively and about calling a game that their offensive talents don't develop well. They seem to be the biggest busts in every draft. Besides, if I'm picking offense at #4, I want the best bat period. I don't want to pick someone just because they play catcher.

    Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows are the GA HS OF's that other people peg for top 12 picks. Frazier has a ton of power but may have strikeout issues. Meadows has a ton of tools but hasn't put them all to use yet. I like Frazier better than Meadows but I'd prefer to draft neither.

    Colin Moran is a fast rising college 3B. He is perhaps the best hitter in the draft but people think he will need to move to 1B. He also has not flashed much power, so you may be looking at a James Loney or Sean Casey. To me, if you are going after a guy like this, you better be sure he'll pan out because a corner infielder with little power better be one of the best hitters in the league.

    If Appel, Gray and Bryant are off the board, Stewart is my pick. I don't think signing him will be a huge issue, you may have to go over slot but probably not by much. According to most scouts, he has the most upside and the Twins could certainly use more top of the rotation arms. If for some reason he doesn't sign, though I have full confidence he will, the Twins would be awarded the 5th pick in next year's draft and considering I don't much like the talent at the top this year, I don't think that's entirely a bad thing .

    On a side note, Appel, Bryant, Manaea, Meadows and Moran are all Scott Boras clients. Stewart has been in contact with Boras but his advisor is unknown. Considering that Boras likely will have 5-6 of the top 10 picks, don't expect any of them to sign early. He'll wait for his first player picked to sign to make sure the guys picked below him can maximize their contracts. Luckily the signing deadline got moved up last year.
    I know that we need to continue to build our farm system, but next years draft is absolutely loaded at the top. There is a superstar in Rodon and some very good middle infield prospects. I personally say you take the risk on Kohl since I think he has one of the higher upsides in this draft. The Twins have already said that they don't like to deal with Boras so I think you can take Appel off our boards. Also in the past they avoid pitchers with injury riddled pasts, taking Manea off of our board also (He is also a Boras client).

    I fully expect us to take one of McGuire or Frazier. Both players fill a need in our farm system and will allow us to open up the rest of our draft. Ryan prefers to take high ceiling arms late in the draft and I see that trend continuing.
    Last edited by Mauer.400; 05-25-2013 at 08:28 PM.

  9. #9
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    Here is Keith Laws new mock. Very interesting but we can't pass up Gray if available for Stewart. Can't see the Rockies letting him pass either.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...2013-mlb-draft

    For those of you without insider he has ..........
    1. Astros - Colin Moran POS: 3B, B/T: R/R, HT: 6-3, WT: 215, School: North Carolina

    Analysis: I don't think the Astros will make a formal decision on this pick until Thursday, but the buzz within the industry has Houston leaning toward this scenario: Houston takes Moran, knowing his next-best alternative is to go No. 5 to Cleveland, whose slot value is $3,787,000. By doing this, the Astros could offer him $4 million or so and know he'd accept it.

    The value of the No. 1 pick is $7.79 million, which means the Astros would then have sufficient savings to take first-round talents who fell at picks 40 and 74, something they've already shopped around to some prep players who aren't going in the top 33.

    They could take Jonathan Gray but won't get as much of a discount if they do. They're not on Kris Bryant or Clint Frazier, and Mark Appel doesn't seem to be one of their top two options.

    2. Cubs - Mark Appel, POS: RHP, HT: 6-5, WT: 215, School: Stanford

    Analysis: Appel or Gray. I've heard Theo Epstein loves Gray, but overall the Cubs have a real internal debate between the two options. Without a clear inclination toward either guy, I've assigned them the player I think is better.

    3. Rockies - Kris Bryant, POS: 3B/OF, WT: R/R, HT: 6-5, WT: 215, School: San Diego

    Analysis: They've been linked to Bryant all spring, and the industry discussion has had them on hitters. But would they take Gray if he were here? I can't see Gray falling far, with a floor at No. 6. (No way does Miami scouting director Stan Meek, an Oklahoma native who played at OU, pass on a Sooner as good as Gray.)

    4. Twin's - Kohl Stewart, POS: RHP, HT: 6-3, WT: 190, School: St. Pius X (Houston)

    Analysis: This will be Stewart, Gray or Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire on a well below-slot deal.

    5. Jonathan Gray - POS: RHP, HT: 6-4, WT: 239, School: Oklahoma

    Analysis: I've heard them on Bryant and Moran all spring, and Chris Antonetti flew to Georgia to meet with Clint Frazier earlier this week, but I think they'll take Gray if he falls to them.

    Gray is a top of rotation guy and Right in line with our other studs coming up.

  10. #10
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    I honestly think if Gray is still on the board at 4, the Twins will grab him and give him slot bonus.

  11. #11
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    I agree, I don't think the Twins pass on Gray for Stewart. That being said, I don't think the Astros pass on him for Moran. I know the Astros went underslot last year to get some bigger names in the comp rounds, but no one knew that was their draft stratagy until the pick was in. Now a week before the draft people start talking about Moran going number 1? It sounds fishy, I'd assume the Astros are playing this game to convince Gray to take somewhat of a discount.

  12. #12
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    It is being reported that Jonathan Gray tested positive for Adderall in his pre draft workouts. He won't get suspended for this but it certainly doesn't say anything positive about him if he was on Adderall when he knew he would be tested. If he was in pro ball he would have been suspended 50 games.

    Keith Law doesn't think it will affect his draft status, but we'll see.

    I still take him at #4 if he falls due to this.

  13. #13
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    I'd have no problem taking Gray at #4, if he's available. He'll know that he has to stay clean once he signs. He'll be tested regularly, and randomly due to this.

  14. #14
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    Law has also surmised that the positive test may force him to sign for a smaller bonus which would obviously make him more appealing to the Astros. So it's possible the positive test makes him a MORE likely 1st overall pick. Of course if that happens, I'll have to suspect it was in fact the Astros who leaked this report.

  15. #15
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    That would be interesting, wouldn't it? That means the Twins will have a chance to pick a very good 3B/OF or possibly Appel or go down the board a bit and take someone like Kohl Stewart.

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