"Mr. 4th Quarter"
BPN scouting report on Gray:
http://baseballprospectnation.com/tag/jonathan-gray/BLUF: Raw power right-handed starter with dominating frontline potential.
The Player: Jonathan Gray (RHP, University of Oklahoma) – Started his college career at Eastern Oklahoma State College before transferring to Oklahoma as a sophomore. Posted a 3.16 ERA in 18 starts for the Sooners in 2012, including 104 strikeouts in 102.2 innings pitched. Through ten starts this year has posted a spectacular 1.09 ERA and 7-1 record. In 74.1 innings so far, he has allowed only 40 hits and 13 walks while strikeout out 91 batters.
Basis of Report: Compilation – Industry Contacts
Body (6-4, 240): Big, physical guy. Not well-conditioned but has good strength and plenty of mass to use for momentum. Fringy athlete. Always likely to be a burly guy more than a chiseled physical specimen.
Delivery/Mechanics: Pretty smooth with good arm action and an easy release. Ball jumps out of his hand. Stabs a bit on the back side but it doesn’t hinder the arm stroke or the timing of the rest of the delivery. Gets to his balance point consistently and explodes to the plate from there. Very quick arm. Some effort toward the finish with a hard fall to first base. Won’t field.
Fastball (FB) Velocity (Wind-up): High – 99, Low – 93, Average 94-95, Grade – 70/70
Fastball (FB) Velocity (Stretch): High – 98, Low 94, Average 94-95, Grade – 70/70
Fastball (FB) Movement: Late life. Ball jumps out of the hand and explodes on hitters. Has more movement in lower velo registers. Flattens out at elite velocity. Very difficult to square. Can bore in on RHH consistently. Easy plus movement when he doesn’t overthrow. Grade – 60/60
Overall Fastball: Outstanding pitch. True dominator. Velo sits in plus-plus range every time out, can touch elite range when he needs a little more and could sit in elite range in shorter bursts. Holds velo well thanks to strength. Overwhelming combination of velo and movement at its best. Grade – 70/70
Slider (SL): Shows short, sharp break with depth and minimal horizontal movement. Thrown hard in the 84-87 mph range. Pitch comes out looking like FB and then darts down as it approaches the hitting zone. Can be dominating out pitch when on. Needs consistency with pitch but has tremendous potential. Typically throws it for strikes and needs to learn to throw it out of the zone as a chase pitch. Plus-plus potential with tweaks. Grade – 60/70
Change-up (CH): Will throw occasional CH with some intrigue. Has some arm-side wiggle when he really lets it go and turns it over. Well below-average overall and needs considerable development to be useable against professional hitters. Shows willingness to throw it and work to develop pitch. Could be average long term but needs multiple grade jump to get there. Average future is lofty for me right now; needs to show improved feel as a pro. Grade – 30/40
Control: More of a thrower than pitcher but repeats delivery and arm slot well enough to consistently find the strike zone. FB is consistently thrown for strikes, as is SL. CH can be hit or miss but has improved control of the pitch this spring. Overall average strike thrower with potential for more as he continues polishing his game and gains additional feel. Grade – 50/60
Command: Even with a relatively clean delivery, I don’t see the command profile. Lacks athleticism and if the body gets away from him a bit, the command will regress rather than improve. Below-average at present. Has tendency to miss up with FB and to the arm side with CH. Doesn’t show ability to move FB in and out, up and down at will. With overwhelming stuff, below-average command may suffice for him to remain in a rotation. Benefit of the doubt given dramatic improvements this year and can see hints of average command long term. Grade – 40/50
Summation: Huge ceiling Very physical guy with ability to hold velocity and potential to devour innings at the professional level. FB sits plus-plus and consistently reaches elite range when he reaches back for it. Throws strikes but doesn’t locate FB. Can dominate weaker hitters with FB alone, thanks to velocity and movement. SL could be second plus-plus pitch. Really impressive when he has it working. Can miss bats with darting action down in the zone. FB-SL combo is potentially lethal with refinement. CH is well behind other two pitches but shows some flashes of potential with decent arm speed and some wiggle. Command and control will be a question. Lacks the stereotypical indicators of future command, making confident projection a difficult task. Has all the raw ingredients to become a front-of-the-rotation monster but with a limited track record and some grade jumps required at the bottom of the profile, I’m hesitant to get too aggressive with his projection.
Relative Risk: High. High level success is still relatively new and has not been sustained. Will have to prove that command profile can either develop or play against advanced professional hitters.
Draft Projection: Gray has vaulted himself from intriguing power arm to one of the top prospects in the draft. With continued success over the next six weeks, he could come off the board in the top five picks. Shouldn’t last pas the top ten barring some regression in stuff or performance.
Last edited by SenorGato; 05-10-2013 at 10:49 AM.
Jim Callis put out a mock draft:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...ock-draft-1-0/1. ASTROS: Houston, which has the top selection for the second straight year, says it’s still evaluating seven players. Most industry sources believe Houston’s decision will come down to Appel, whom it strongly considered a year ago before taking Carlos Correa, and Gray. While Appel has less leverage this time around because he’s now a college senior, Houston won’t be able to take as much of a discount as it did with Correa, who signed for $4.8 million. The Astros’ pick is valued at $7.8 million, and whichever arm they pass on likely will be snapped up by the Cubs ($6.7 million) or the Rockies ($5.6 million).
PROJECTED PICK: MARK APPEL.
2. CUBS: Chicago has had scouts at every one of Appel’s and Gray’s starts this spring. While the Cubs insist they haven’t narrowed their focus to just the two pitchers, it will be an upset if they don’t choose whichever one the Astros leave on the board.
PROJECTED PICK: JONATHAN GRAY.
Kris Bryant (Photo by Robert Gurganus)
3. ROCKIES: Colorado may prefer a pitcher, but if Appel and Gray aren’t available, there’s not an obvious arm to take here. The Rockies could cut a deal with someone like Nevada righthander Braden Shipley or hope that Manaea regains his form from last summer in the Cape Cod League. Would they opt for a high school pitcher after getting burned by their $3.9 million investment in Tyler Matzek in 2009? More likely, they’ll grab the best offensive prospect in the draft.
PROJECTED PICK: KRIS BRYANT.
4. TWINS: A year ago, Minnesota badly needed pitching but used the No. 2 overall choice on outfielder Byron Buxton, the 2012 draft’s top-rated prospect. While the Twins aren’t as desperate now, they’re still looking at arms. Stewart comes with more risk but similar ceiling to Appel and Gray. Manaea and Ball are other options. Rumors persist that Minnesota could cut a deal with Washington high school catcher Reese McGuire and spend heavily further down in the draft.
PROJECTED PICK: KOHL STEWART.
5. INDIANS: Cleveland is another team searching for pitching. The Indians traditionally have been more comfortable with college arms, so they’re one of several teams trying to figure out Manaea. Shipley could allow them to move money lower in the draft, helpful for a club that lost picks by signing free agents Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. If Bryant fell, Cleveland would grab him and focus on pitching later.
PROJECTED PICK: BRADEN SHIPLEY.
6. MARLINS: Other teams believe Florida will make a discount choice, with candidates ranging from Shipley and McGuire to New Mexico corner infielder D.J. Peterson and New Jersey high school lefthander Rob Kaminsky. If money is less important, Frazier could be a target.
PROJECTED PICK: REESE McGUIRE.
7. RED SOX: Boston has selected this high just once since 1967, getting Trot Nixon with the No. 7 choice in 1993. The Red Sox are looking to maximize their opportunity and will take a high-ceiling talent such as Frazier, Manaea or Stewart. They’re also interested in sweet-swinging North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran.
PROJECTED PICK: CLINT FRAZIER.
8. ROYALS: Add Kansas City to the list of teams on the hunt for pitching. If Stewart and Shipley are gone, that would leave the Royals considering Ball, Manaea and Arkansas righthander Ryne Stanek—who pitched his high school ball in suburban Kansas City. The Royals are known for preferring curveballs to sliders, which could help Ball’s cause.
PROJECTED PICK: RYNE STANEK.
9. PIRATES: Pittsburgh added this pick after failing to sign Appel at No. 8 last year, and it would get the No. 10 selection in 2014 if it can’t close a deal again. The Pirates were on Moran more than most teams in high school, and he’d eventually allow Pedro Alvarez to shift across the diamond to first base. Ball and McGuire also get mentioned here.
PROJECTED PICK: COLIN MORAN.
10. BLUE JAYS: No team was more aggressive than Toronto in the 2012 draft, but it has no extra picks to play with this year. Expect the Blue Jays to go all-in here and grab the highest-ceiling player still available. If Stewart and Frazier are off the board, that means Ball or Meadows.
PROJECTED PICK: TREY BALL.
"Mr. 4th Quarter"
Gray will be pitching tonight at 8 ET/ 7 CT on ESPNU I believe.
Man, I'd be real tempted to pick Bryant if the choice was between Bryant and Gray.
I think Clint Frazier might end up being the best out of this group.
I've seen a lot of Gray this year, when you see a guy dial it up to 99 in the 8th, it's hard not to get excited by the potential. Delivery looks effortless, slider is disgusting, FB has late movement, and the guy doesn't wear down. He's a horse, I won't be dissapointed at all if we pick him.
Personally I don't see anyway (barring injury) we don't take Appel or Gray. Our system is void of pitching and these are definitely the top two pitchers in the draft. I am not big on taking pitchers in first five rounds, but when picking 2 and the top two are pitchers I think you have to.
CubsFanIAm is correct. Jake Fisher is on the mound tonight. Gray will go tomorrow.