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  1. #1
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    Wheeler for Upton: Coulda. Shoulda?

    http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/met...medium=twitter
    If youíre reading this blog, youíre probably aware that the Metsí outfield is, um, underwhelming. And although their farm system is rich in some areas, such as right-handed pitching, it is bereft of outfield talent. In fact, Brandon Nimmo is the organizationís only outfield prospect who can reasonably project to becoming even an average big league regular, and heís in low Class A.

    Based on that evidence, itís understandable why the club was interested in trading for Justin Upton over the winter when the Diamondbacks made him available. Of course, when push came to shove, word around the campfire was that the Mets refused to part with top prospect Zack Wheeler in a deal for Upton, and trade talks fell apart.

    Assuming that's true, the Mets will have plenty of time to kick themselves for missing out on a golden opportunity, starting this weekend in Atlanta.

    This isnít to suggest that Wheeler is going to be a bust. Far from it. As he showed on Tuesday afternoon in Reno, when he fanned 8 while allowing 1 run in 6 2/3 innings, heís got crazy potential. The problem is that pitching prospects break down all the time, while players like Upton, who are young, gifted and under team control for a few years at a reasonable price (a total of $38.25 million through 2015), rarely become available on the trade market. If you have the chance to grab a player like that, you donít let a pitching prospect stand in your way. If anyone should know this, itís the Mets.

    Remember Jenrry Mejia? In 2010, Keith Law had him ranked as the No. 23 prospect in all of baseball, and three years later the best-case scenario is a mid-rotation starter or reliever. Then there was Mike Pelfrey, who was an acceptable major league pitcher, but whose trade value was probably at itís apex the day before he was called up to the majors. And I wonít even bother getting into the whole Generation K debacle.

    People get attached to prospects because of the possibility of what they might be. And sure, sometimes they become Matt Harvey, but far more often they become David West.

    If the Mets had included Wheeler in a deal for Upton itís hard to imagine a situation in which they would have regretted it. I donít think heíll maintain his 70-homer pace, but his 2011 season, when he finished fourth in the NL MVP voting with 31 homers and a .289/.369/.529 line, is a reasonable expectation given his age (25!) and track record. If the Mets had that kind of player in their lineup, they could be contending within a year, and they have a number of right-handed pitching prospects who could step up and fill the void left by Wheeler, such as Rafael Montero, Domingo Tapia and Luis Mateo.

    The one black cloud that still hangs over every potential pitching prospect trade the Mets might make is the disastrous Scott Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano deal of 2004. The difference between that trade and a theoretical Wheeler-for-Upton swap is that the former was dumb the day it happened, because Zambrano was a lemon and everyone but the Mets knew it.

    In fact, letís imagine an alternative universe in which the Mets get the 2004 equivalent of Justin Upton. Just two years prior, a right fielder in his mid-20s had finished fourth in the NL MVP voting, and his name was Vladimir Guerrero. Had the Mets been shrewd enough to maximize the value of an elite prospect like Kazmir and get an All-Star in his prime, the deal wouldnít still be a punchline almost a decade later.

    Wheeler could turn out to be a star, and this will be moot. But Upton is a star, and the Mets were foolish to not go all-in if they had the chance. You have to give up something to get something, and itís far better to give up potential stardom when the return is certain stardom that also happens to fill the organizationís most glaring need.

  2. #2
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    I would have done Wheeler for Upton faster than it has taken me to type this post.

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  3. #3
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    It's a nice point to debate but it obviously moot now.

    Would there be this discussion if Wheeler was dominating in the PCL and Upton wasn't playing at an ungodly level?

    I can understand why Wheeler wasn't an option given the year Upton had last year, injury or not.

  4. #4
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    I have been one of the biggest Mets need to get Upton guys in here and I had my reservation about giving up Wheeler for Upton, but to get something you have to give up something.

    ...too late now.

  5. #5
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    Wheeler for Upton straight up is a no brainer, but they would have wanted more which would make it not a no brainer. I was on the get Upton bandwagon, but I would have preferred to not give up Wheeler. Beggars can't be choosers though.

  6. #6
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    I have a feeling Thor or Montero are going to be part of a major trade for a significant OF in the next 10 months.

    Everything seems to be leaning that way.

    No Dug not Stanton

  7. #7
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    Its very easy to say now that you would do this trade.

    Not so easy at the time.
    DUDA


    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    I have a feeling Thor or Montero are going to be part of a major trade for a significant OF in the next 10 months.

    Everything seems to be leaning that way.


    No Dug not Stanton
    You are correct.

    Do not dismiss the possibility of Giancarlo. For all we know Wheeler could be used in the deal, and better to use Wheeler for Giancarlo than Upton. This is the genius of Sandy Alderson. But hopefully Syndergaard and others step up to make a deal for Giancarlo a real possibility.
    Last edited by Dugmet; 05-03-2013 at 06:42 AM.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  9. #9
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    Wheeler for Upton: Coulda. Shoulda?

    I would of rather used Wheeler for Upton, Upton stays healthy while Stanton does not.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    I have a feeling Thor or Montero are going to be part of a major trade for a significant OF in the next 10 months.

    Everything seems to be leaning that way.

    No Dug not Stanton
    I hate to agree with the infamous McFly on any issue lol, but....

    Why in the world should we trade any of our prized pitching prospects?

    The solution should clearly be to spend money, not trade prospects. And, I really don't care if we would be trading from a strength. You can never have too much quality pitching.

    We are not the Oakland Mets or the San Diego Mets. We aren't the Tampa Bay Mets either.

    We are the New York Mets.

    If the Coupons are claiming that we have money to spend, then the solution should be to spend.

    If this team spends enough money to sign 1 or 2 impact bats, it will make a world of difference.

    And then we could have this rotation at some point in 2015:

    Harvey
    Wheeler
    Niese
    Montero
    Syndergaard
    DUDA


    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  11. #11
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    I wanted Upton bad, but id definitely rather have Stanton. Wheeler will be fine he just has to keep having games like his last 1 where he doesnt walk a lot of people and he will be fine. Id rather have homegrown pitching and sign impact bats in free agency. Its up to the Mets to spend money if they do we will be fine

  12. #12
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    On a side note, people worry too much about Wheeler in this forum.

    Having a few control issues in April at AAA is nothing to be concerned with.

    We are going to look back at this and laugh at the notion of being worried about Wheeler's sloppy start to the last year of his Minor League career.

    We all want to see him do well and join the big league team, but there really is truly nothing to be concerned with long term with Wheeler.

    Its not like he is having arm issues like Dylan Bundy. Its just a sloppy start, that is all.

    The important thing is that he is healthy, and his fastball is still blazing. Everything else will come together in time.
    DUDA


    Quote Originally Posted by VendettaRed07 View Post
    noah is gonna be a beast man.

    with him and harvey, its like were gonna have Goku and Vegetta in the same rotation

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    I would of rather used Wheeler for Upton, Upton stays healthy while Stanton does not.
    Was there a reason why Justin Upton played just 138 games in 2009 and 133 games in 2010?

    In 2006 (113) and 2007 (103) Upton did not play anywhere near a full schedule of games in the minors. Injuries?

    What is the basis for your opinion about Upton? How do you account for the games he has missed?
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrigheyes4MVP View Post
    On a side note, people worry too much about Wheeler in this forum.

    Having a few control issues in April at AAA is nothing to be concerned with.
    Fans in this forum thought Reuben Tejada forgot how to hit - completely, and that Ike was going to hit 40 HRs based on ST stats. Many yell about small samples, and then conveniently dismiss them or use them to make a point. I suppose everyone is guilty of this from time to time.

    "We need moar Cowgill" is now a distant memory.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wrigheyes4MVP View Post
    I hate to agree with the infamous McFly on any issue lol, but....

    Why in the world should we trade any of our prized pitching prospects?

    The solution should clearly be to spend money, not trade prospects. And, I really don't care if we would be trading from a strength. You can never have too much quality pitching.

    We are not the Oakland Mets or the San Diego Mets. We aren't the Tampa Bay Mets either.

    We are the New York Mets.

    If the Coupons are claiming that we have money to spend, then the solution should be to spend.

    If this team spends enough money to sign 1 or 2 impact bats, it will make a world of difference.

    And then we could have this rotation at some point in 2015:

    Harvey
    Wheeler
    Niese
    Montero
    Syndergaard
    They need 2 OF pieces not 1..

    So aside from FA, i think Thor or Montero are going to highlight a deal for a star OF.

    It's unrealistic to expect the Mets to go out their next offseason and spend 40 million dollars on two OF pieces annually. So in that context, i think they are going to use some of their SP depth to find themselves a solution.

    That's not necessarily a bad thing depending on the OF they acquire, who is dealt, and with how much SP depth they have.

    I just wouldn't deal a combination of Thor and Montero/Fulmer/Tapia but centering a deal around one is fine if they get a quality OF.

    I want them to do both this offseason, sign one FA OF and trade for another one.
    Last edited by metswon69; 05-03-2013 at 10:41 AM.

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