2013 Pirates Expectations

[burgh_fan66]

I did a similar thread to this last year and it went over quite well. What is everyone's expectations of the Pirates. When I say Pirates I don't just mean the team as a whole although feel free to give your expectations of them but I mean individual players, coaches, prospects, front office, essentially anything you want to mention (even the peanut vendor in section 127 if you have something to say about him). Feel free to list out your breakout players or your busts, post stat lines you think a certain player will reach, predict the date Huntington will be fired if you want to go that direction. I don't care what it is just lets discuss what we are all expecting from the 2013 Pirates and their components.

[JNev]

Well I'll start I guess

Im really high on Pedro this year. I think if he can finally get some consistency and a good start he can be that power guy who hit a high enough average enough to be of great value. Pedro and actually Travis Snider I have the highest hopes for. Something about him just says to me hes gonna breakout and be a starting corner OF'er this year.

Marte, on the other hand, kind of worries me. Im really happy he went through winter ball and played really well and that alleviates some of my worry, but I just dont have as good of a feeling about him as I see some others do.

On the pitching staff, I'm really excited about Melancon and I think we'll all be forgetting about Hanrahan sooner than later. Dont get me wrong, I loved and still do love Hanrahan but it was definitely the right move to basically trade him for the SU version of him and the years of control along with the salary space.

In terms of starters, I feel really safe with Wandy and Burghnett but I just have no idea what to expect from JMac. The guy is confusing as hell haha Im pumped to see Liriano and the Burnett theme of getting injured eerily before camp is working for us so far, so maybe this injury is a good sign

[burgh_fan66]

I'm doing this on my blog in a more in depth manner which is why I decided to start it here but I'll provide some brief summaries here.

Catcher

Martin - I'm expecting Martin to lose some power coming to Pittsburgh but gain some on his batting average and OBP because of his low BABIP in 2012. I see him posting an OPS right around .700 and maybe even .710. I have him pegged for a .240/.330/.380 type season. Defensively he is said to be a good pitch framer so I hope he is able to get our pitchers some calls but outside of that I expect him to be about average and throw out about 18% of base stealers. I'm penciling him in for about 95 starts.

McKenry - I expect McKenry will see a drop off in his power from 2012 but remain a fairly productive backup catcher. His defense should remain solid and the Pirates should be comfortable with playing him on a semi-regular basis in order to ease the buden on Martin. I have him penciled for about 50 starts (200-250 PA) and a line of about .230/.300/.370.

Sanchez - The remaining 10-15 starts or so I think will go to Sanchez as he fills in for the occasional injury and probably gets some September playing time. I think he will have a solid season in AAA but it won't be great, something along the lines of .260/.340/.400. In the majors I expect he will struggle offensively in his limited time. At both levels I am expecting to see good defense from him as that is his calling card.

[LetsGoPirates]

Part of me thinks this is going to be a break out season for the Bucs but the Pirate fan in me says not so fast... Looking at each position this is what I think:

First
Nothing new here. It looks like the same thing as last year only that Jones is paired with Sanchez instead of McGehee. I figure Jones to get the lion's share of starts and I think he will play at last season's level or perhaps slightly higher. SAME AS 2012

Second
If Walker remains healthy it will be an improvement. I'm an optomist. BETTER THAN 2012

Short
Same old, same old. SAME AS 2012

Third
I am looking for Pedro to have a break out year. I think he will push Cutch for best Pirate of 2014. BETTER THAN 2012

Left
Left now belongs to Marte and the settling down of the position can only be an improvement. BETTER THAN 2012

Center
Cutch is legit. SAME AS 2012

Right
Ugh... Too many options to consider here. It looks like a battle between Tabata and Snider. SAME AS 2012

Catcher
Not much needs to be said... BETTER THAN 2012

Starting Pitching
The rotation has not been set so it's tough to be sure. Not much has changed here except for Liriano and / or whoever will start the season in his place. SAME AS 2012

Relief Pitching
Losing Hanrahan hurts. It may ultimately be a good trade but losing a proven closer and replacing him with the team's best set-up man shakes up the pen too much. WORSE THAN 2012

All that being said I think a slight improvement is a reasonable expectation. Perhaps the improvement would be greater if the Astros stayed but the division is stronger without them. So I think they'll finish 82-80.

[ManRamForPrez24]

I see room for improvement at catcher and left field. The rest figures to be pretty stagnant or just unchanged. I doubt we'll see much improvement at the other positions. Hopefully Alvarez plays better. Hopefully the platoons in right and 1B can find some semblance of consistent production.

The rotation looks about the same. I don't think we'll see much drop off from AJ...none of his numbers suggest anything he did was flukish or unsustainable. I think a full year of Wandy will help. J-Mac could take the next step...and has the potential to be the guy that makes the greatest difference. It was a tale of two seasons for him last year.

The 4th and 5th spots probably will be pretty fluid all year, but there seems to be more quality depth and a few options (ie Cole) with a tremendous amount of upside. The tail end of the rotation also will go a long ways in determining the team's success. Figures to be Locke and Karstens out of the gate, but Liriano, Cole and Morton all should enhance things when they return. Hopefully a lot of beneficial friendly competition eventually.


I think the bullpen will be fine. I obviously am partial to two teams, and I'm terrified of how Hanrahan will do in Boston. He was due for some serious regression even before he was shipped out to the AL East. I think Grili will be fine. I like the Melancon addition a lot. Watson, Hughes, Wilson, Morris, Leroux, etc all are solid. Karstens I'd imagine will spend a lot of time there.


I think all-and-all it's gonna be more of the same. Pedro once again holds a lot of the cards, though it feels like there's less pressure being put on him this year. Maybe that helps. Hopefully the relative platoons on the right half of Snider, Jones, Sanchez, Tabata, etc. works out. Besides Jones, the other three all are capable of playing better than they did last year. I'd love to see a big term emergence from a few of them, especially Snider (who I'd love to see play well enough to earn full time duties in right).

I'm iffy about the rotation...and there are a lot of unknowns and variables at play. Hopefully it's less boom (first half) or bust (second half), and just something more consistent. That can be said about the whole team.


I see a team fighting for .500 again. I'm just not sure they get there.

[burgh_fan66]

I don't think many people realize this but right field was actually a pretty decent position for the Pirates last season so if Snider and Tabata can keep that steady allowing Jones to focus full time on 1B that would be a big boost. The Pirates performed better than league average offensively at 4 positions last year 2B, 3B, CF and RF. Catcher wasn't even far from league average. The 3 positions that killed them offensively were 1B, SS and especially LF.

[burgh_fan66]

Since the 25 man roster is finalized I thought I'd give my prediction for each Pirates player (including the 4 DL guys). For the position players I'll gvie the usual slash line AVG/OBP/SLG and for Pitchers I'll give ERA/WHIP/K:BB

Russell Martin: .240/.325/.375
Michael McKenry: .230/.310/.370
Garrett Jones: .255/.315/.455
Gaby Sanchez: .260/.330/.410
Neil Walker: .275/.335/.430
Pedro Alvarez: .250/.330/.480
Clint Barmes: .235/.290/.350
John McDonald: .225/.270/.320
Josh Harrison: .245/.280/.350
Brandon Inge: .220/.290/.350
Starling Marte: .275/.320/.450
Andrew McCutchen: .300/.380/.500
Travis Snider: .260/.320/.440
Jose Tabata: .260/.340/.370

AJ Burnett: 3.90/1.32/2.40
Wandy Rodriguez: 3.70/1.28/2.60
James McDonald: 4.10/1.35/2.10
Jonathan Sanchez: 4.80/1.50/1.60
Jeff Locke: 4.30/1.37/2.20
Francisco Liriano: 4.00/1.33/2.20
Jeff Karstens: 4.20/1.25/3.10
Charlie Morton: 4.40/1.40/1.80
Jason Grilli: 3.30/1.22/3.20
Mark Melancon: 3.10/1.24/2.80
Jared Hughes: 3.50/1.20/2.90
Tony Watson: 3.40/1.25/2.40
Chris Leroux: 3.60/1.27/2.60
Justin Wilson: 4.10/1.50/1.70
Jeanmar Gomez: 3.80/1.35/1.80