2013 World Series Predictions

[GA16Angels]

Since all but 2 "game changing" free agents have signed and we're only a week away from pitchers and catchers reporting, I thought it'd be fun to see everyone's preseason World Series predictions. Rejoice in the fact that there are no right or wrong answers since the playoffs are essentially a crap shoot. So post the two teams you think will be in the World Series and who you think will win. For example, here's mine:

Angels vs. Reds

Reds win.

[Guppyfighter]

A's vs. Cardinals

A's win.

[Silent]

Cubs vs Astros Cubs win

[THINKBLUE15]

Since all but 2 "game changing" free agents have signed and we're only a week away from pitchers and catchers reporting, I thought it'd be fun to see everyone's preseason World Series predictions. Rejoice in the fact that there are no right or wrong answers since the playoffs are essentially a crap shoot. So post the two teams you think will be in the World Series and who you think will win. For example, here's mine:

Angels vs. Reds

Reds win.

I take it the Angels pick up pitching at the deadline? Or does Trout rob all the HR Blanton gives up?

[VJ24]

i say blue jays win based on pitching

[mtf]

Blue Jays over Nationals in 7

[AussieDoc]

Don't see the Blue Jays making the WS...I'm not sure why.

I'm tipping Nats-Angels, Nats win in 6

[GA16Angels]

I take it the Angels pick up pitching at the deadline? Or does Trout rob all the HR Blanton gives up?

The rotation will be essentially the same as last year, the bullpen is way better, the defense is better, and the lineup is better. The Angels were the best team in baseball from May on last year, so it makes sense that they will at least be in the playoffs. And it's my opinion that they'll make it to the World Series. I take it you're upset I didn't put the Dodgers in there? Sorry, Dodgers offense isn't very good.

[mtf]

Don't see the Blue Jays making the WS...I'm not sure why.

Reasonably safe bet they can make the playoffs. Once you're in, it's anyone's game. Their pitching is a lot better than any of the other real contenders in the AL except Detroit.

[Iansnightout]

Mariners and Reds.

[Cheezombie]

The rotation will be essentially the same as last year, the bullpen is way better, the defense is better, and the lineup is better. The Angels were the best team in baseball from May on last year, so it makes sense that they will at least be in the playoffs. And it's my opinion that they'll make it to the World Series. I take it you're upset I didn't put the Dodgers in there? Sorry, Dodgers offense isn't very good.

I'm not sure I agree. The rotation will be the same? Their rotation posted the 5th best ERA in the AL last year, not sure I see that with this staff. I would also be worried about Weavers drop in strikeouts..he posted his worst strikeout rate since his rookie year. His velocity has taken a dip. I know that he normally outperforms his metrics, but he outperformed his xFIP by like a run and a half, not sure he can do that again. Frankly, I think Weaver will be worse, and you don't have 90 innings of Greinke. There is also zero depth after the top 5. If one of the top 2 go down, it's going to be ugly.

I don't really see how the lineup is better either. You lost Hunter who gave you over 5 WAR. Hamilton is replacing him, and has only posted a WAR above 5 once. Pujols will probably do a little better. It's unrealistic to expect 10 WAR from Trout. I mean he's a tremendous talent, but nobody should be expected to do that every year. The lineup looks the same to me with no major improvements.

So even if the rotation is the same, It really just looks like they've only improved their bullpen.

[GA16Angels]

I'm not sure I agree. The rotation will be the same? Their rotation posted the 5th best ERA in the AL last year, not sure I see that with this staff. I would also be worried about Weavers drop in strikeouts..he posted his worst strikeout rate since his rookie year. His velocity has taken a dip. I know that he normally outperforms his metrics, but he outperformed his xFIP by like a run and a half, not sure he can do that again. Frankly, I think Weaver will be worse, and you don't have 90 innings of Greinke. There is also zero depth after the top 5. If one of the top 2 go down, it's going to be ugly.

I don't really see how the lineup is better either. You lost Hunter who gave you over 5 WAR. Hamilton is replacing him, and has only posted a WAR above 5 once. Pujols will probably do a little better. It's unrealistic to expect 10 WAR from Trout. I mean he's a tremendous talent, but nobody should be expected to do that every year. The lineup looks the same to me with no major improvements.

So even if the rotation is the same, It really just looks like they've only improved their bullpen.

2012 Rotation vs. 2013 Rotation:
G 162 IP 984 ERA 4.04 FIP 4.33 K/9 7.1 BB/9 2.9 (2012 Weaver/Wilson/Haren/Santana/Greinke/Williams/Richards/Mills)
G 158 IP 974 ERA 3.93 FIP 4.19 K/9 7.2 BB/9 2.6 (2012 Weaver/Wilson/Hanson/Vargas/Blanton)

The numbers actually favor the new rotation. A lot of people don't realize how bad Santana and Haren were last year. Plus CJ Wilson was pitching through an injury last year and was terrible during the second half. I'm a little worried about Weaver too, but apparently he was playing through a back injury for the majority of last year and his drop in velocity was due to a higher use of his curveball. And we actually have a lot of depth after our number five. We have Garret Richards (who should actually be starting this year), Nick Maronde (our second best prospect), and Jerome Williams. All three of them are adequate replacements/place-holders.

As for the lineup, Josh Hamilton performed better offensively than Hunter did last year. You used WAR as a reference, but ignored the fact that Hamilton's WAR was brought down by his terrible defense in center field. Hamilton's oWAR in 2012 was 4.4, Hunter's was 4.0. True, not a major difference, but lets not act like Hunter was better than Hamilton offensively. Furthermore, from May to September, the Angel's offense was ranked #2 in baseball behind only the Cardinals. You yourself said that Pujols is likely to improve and since Hamilton is an improvement to the lineup, it's not ridiculous to think they'll be at least in the top 5 again.] or that they improve upon last year. Your only argument as to why it hasn't improved is that you don't think Trout will perform a 10 WAR season again which is impossible to predict.

So I've proved that the rotation is the same if not better. The lineup, from all reasonable perspectives, is better. Which brings us to the bullpen which ranked in the bottom 10 in ERA last year. The Angels added Ryan Madson and Sean Burnett which will do nothing but improve the bullpen significantly. Additionally we have depth in the minors.

So, the Angels improved their lineup, improved their bullpen (significantly), improved their defense (no argument needed), and have rather similar if not better value in their rotation than they did in 2012. These improvements coming for the team that was the best in baseball from May on...seems like they're in pretty good shape to make the playoffs. Also, we're going to face the Astros about 20 times this year.

[Guppyfighter]

Angels need to be healthy. Jered Weaver is going to miss 5-6 starts next year, and when that happens, who are the guys who pitch?

Angels lack of pitching depth is what will kill them in the end.

[Guppyfighter]

The numbers actually favor the new rotation. A lot of people don't realize how bad Santana and Haren were last year. Plus CJ Wilson was pitching through an injury last year and was terrible during the second half. I'm a little worried about Weaver too, but apparently he was playing through a back injury for the majority of last year and his drop in velocity was due to a higher use of his curveball. And we actually have a lot of depth after our number five. We have Garret Richards (who should actually be starting this year), Nick Maronde (our second best prospect), and Jerome Williams. All three of them are adequate replacements/place-holders.

As for the lineup, Josh Hamilton performed better offensively than Hunter did last year. You used WAR as a reference, but ignored the fact that Hamilton's WAR was brought down by his terrible defense in center field. Hamilton's oWAR in 2012 was 4.4, Hunter's was 4.0. True, not a major difference, but lets not act like Hunter was better than Hamilton offensively. Furthermore, from May to September, the Angel's offense was ranked #2 in baseball behind only the Cardinals. You yourself said that Pujols is likely to improve and since Hamilton is an improvement to the lineup, it's not ridiculous to think they'll be at least in the top 5 again.] or that they improve upon last year. Your only argument as to why it hasn't improved is that you don't think Trout will perform a 10 WAR season again which is impossible to predict.

So I've proved that the rotation is the same if not better. The lineup, from all reasonable perspectives, is better. Which brings us to the bullpen which ranked in the bottom 10 in ERA last year. The Angels added Ryan Madson and Sean Burnett which will do nothing but improve the bullpen significantly. Additionally we have depth in the minors.

So, the Angels improved their lineup, improved their bullpen (significantly), improved their defense (no argument needed), and have rather similar if not better value in their rotation than they did in 2012. These improvements coming for the team that was the best in baseball from May on...seems like they're in pretty good shape to make the playoffs. Also, we're going to face the Astros about 20 times this year.

The line up is improve, the bullpen may be improved but there are a ton of question marks, and the defense improves in center and left, but I am not so sure Hamilton won't be a horrifying train wreck on defense again.

[Iansnightout]

Call me crazy, but I think Texas is the only AL West team in the playoffs.