Playoff Seed Outlook

[mightybosstone]

So, with the big win against Portland last night, Houston now has a 2-game lead over Portland for the 8th seed. But perhaps just as important, Utah and Golden State both lost and the Rockets are only three games back of the 6th seed. In fact, Memphis hasn't been playing particularly well as of late with Gay gone and Randolph upset, so technically they're only 4 1/2 games back of 5th.

My prediction? The Rockets finish with at least the 6th seed. If Memphis continues to fall, the Rockets will jump them as well to the 5th spot.

I'm aware that this is a bit premature and I hate to jinx this by making a terrible prediction. After starting off 21-14, it looked like the Rockets were poised to finish in that position too before that horrid 7-game losing streak. BUT, the hardest part of the schedule is past and the Rockets have an insanely easy stretch coming up that could help them gain a huge chunk of games on the rest of the Western Conference.

First, this next five-game stretch will be pretty tough: @ Sacramento, @ Golden State, @ LA Clippers, OKC and @ Brooklyn. But they should at least be able to go 2-3 in that stretch and possibly 3-2 or 4-1 if they play great basketball.

Now look at the next 12 games: @ Washington, Milwaukee, @Orlando, Dallas, @ Dallas, @ Golden State, @ Phoenix, Phoenix, Minnesota, Golden State, Utah, Cleveland. There isn't a single team in that stretch that legitimately scares me and there isn't a single game in that isn't winnable. They also play 7 of 12 of those at home (and follow it up with two home games with San Antonio and Indiana). They'll probably drop one to Dallas and/or Golden State and Utah and Minnesota are never easy wins, but what's the worst you could see them finishing in that stretch? 9-3? 8-4?

Let's suppose the worst case scenario for a minute... Say the Rockets go 2-3 in the next five games and then finish 8-4 in the next 12. That would put them at 38-31 with 13 games left on the schedule. In those last 13 games, they get games with Orlando, Sacramento twice and Phoenix twice, as well as winnable games against Western teams like the Lakers, Memphis twice and Denver. In fact, after the next five games, the Rockets only have to face Miami, OK, San Antonio or the Clippers a combined two times the entire rest of the season!

The rest of the schedule looks so easy, that the Rockets would almost have to collapse to not finish with at least 45 wins this year and 50 is certainly not out of the question. Anyone care to agree or disagree with me?

[EDUTEXANS]

I think a lot depends on the trade deadline too. Utah could move their best player in Jefferson, Memphis could move Randolph (although unlikely) and the Blazer could also swing a deal by then. If they do make a deal, I expect them to get worse as they will try to get younger and/or try to build for next year. And we know Morey will be looking for a deal. I think the Rockets won't catch Golden State, they had a hard time dealing with injuries of Curry and Bogut, if they can stay healthy they should finish in the top-5.

Without looking at everybody's schedule, I think the Rockets finish 8th behind both Memphis and Golden State, and behind the Lakers, ahead of the Blazers and the Jazz. I still think the Lakers have the best chance to take the spot away from the Rockets, they have won 7 of their last 10 games, and even with Gasol out, they have a pretty good roster, they should be able to make the playoffs. And they're just 3 and a half games behind us.

And if we do make the Playoffs, I'd love to face the Clippers, I think they would be our best chance to advance.

[mightybosstone]

I can't see the Lakers catching the Rockets. Howard's hurt, Gasol's hurt, there's drama everywhere and D'Antoni can't coach this team. The Warriors probably will finish ahead of Houston, but the Rockets have three games left with the Warriors, who are something like 8-10 in their last 18 games. Right now, neither of these teams scare me and the Rockets can easily finish ahead of both if they keep playing like they have the last two weeks.

As you said, the trade deadline is the wild card in all of this. I don't think the Rockets will make a huge move before the deadline, but other teams might. I could see the Lakers dealing Gasol or maybe even Dwight for the right price, but I'm not sure it will make them any better.

[TaylorMays]

I voted 9th. Just because that has seemed to be our goal every year. More realistically I'd probably go 7th though

[mightybosstone]

I voted 9th. Just because that has seemed to be our goal every year. More realistically I'd probably go 7th though

What? How does this make any sense?

[houstonfan]

What? How does this make any sense?

Hes obviously kidding because we get 9th every year. Im going with 7th because I dont see us catching Golden St. or Memphis.

[Crzycjunx76]

6th seed for now... but after the trade deadline a great deal could change.

[Snakeyestx]

I'd go as far as 4th if all the right things happen. Clippers schedule looks like something they can handle and maintain at least 3rd, Denver's got a bit of a hill to climb, Memphis is in decline.

Golden State seems to be able to keep us behind them but after that last meeting, I think both sides will have figured each other out a little more. I voted 4th with optimism. Realistically, I wouldn't be surprised if we made 7th. Lakers still have a chance, and it wouldn't surprise me if they clawed up to 8th.

[Saddletramp]

Not catching up to SA, OKC, Clips or Denver and I bet either Golden State or Memphis hangs on so that leaves us with the 6th seed as our best seed to me. But I wouldn't be surprised if we were 5-10.

I hope we don't get the Nuggets in the first round if we get in, but then again, you can't hope for SA or OKC, either.

[houstonfan]

Not catching up to SA, OKC, Clips or Denver and I bet either Golden State or Memphis hangs on so that leaves us with the 6th seed as our best seed to me. But I wouldn't be surprised if we were 5-10.

I hope we don't get the Nuggets in the first round if we get in, but then again, you can't hope for SA or OKC, either.

I honestly wouldnt mind playing SA just because we have been right with them the last two times we have played them. But OKC, Denver, and the Clippers (just now are at full strength) would not be good matchups in my mind.

[Tmac,lt,berkman]

I'm saying sixth because I don't think Memphis is gonna finish the year strong or Utah because of trades

[Saddletramp]

Golden State and Utah just lost tonight. Kickass.

[c.c.]

6th seed! vs. Clippers in the first round

[mightybosstone]

Yep. And with a win over Sacramento tonight and a win over the Warriors on Tuesday, the Rockets would be only one game back of Golden State for 6th seed.

[EDUTEXANS]

Not catching up to SA, OKC, Clips or Denver and I bet either Golden State or Memphis hangs on so that leaves us with the 6th seed as our best seed to me. But I wouldn't be surprised if we were 5-10.

I hope we don't get the Nuggets in the first round if we get in, but then again, you can't hope for SA or OKC, either.

I'd hope we get Denver, of the top 4 teams, they're clearly the worst team, they're on a hot streak now and we haven't played well against them, but I'd much rather see them in the Playoffs than SA, OKC or the Clips. I doubt we can finish 5th though. If we finish 6th, which is more likely I'd like to face the Clippers, last year the Grizzlies had them and they let the series get away.