Realistic Expectations

[jomota]

Well if you do, you might want to play this song shortly after.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26J0uDIGErM

You know, I don't miss the 70s one single solitary bit.

I got married in the 70s.

At least I think I did.

[cambovenzi]

For the guys saying there is no way in hell we reach 80 wins any time soon, I disagree.
There is a ton of variance and unexpected results in baseball. Who knows a few guys come out of nowhere and have great seasons and we could be good. The chances aren't spectacular we will be good this year, but its a possibility.

With a bunch of young talent under control for relatively little money I think there is reason to be (cautiously!) excited about our future. (Even if the last few years have been a mess)

[rdg515]

We limped to a 74 win season with Dickey but half a season without Santana and Gee...stuck with 24 starts from a bunch of retreads and AAAA pitchers who went 3-13 6.50. With any level of health the staff will be greatly improved. Our infield is solid and we will get much more offense from Buck and TDA later than we have had in years. The pen has no way to go but up...will our oldsters Feliciano and Byrdak contribute? Why wouldn't Duda go 25 80 .270? Nieuwenhuis and Cowgill should produce enough. But we do meed one more good bat to make enough offense and another vet in the pen would help. Overall I like the tone of the post. LGM.

[rdg515]

Why can't our top three starters all go something like 14-11 and Marcum and Gee 12-9? Add in 3 wins from Wheeler and 3 more spot start wins from Mejia, Familia and Hefner and that's 72 wins. If the pen goes .500 the team wins 87 games and has a shot to make a July move to make a run at the wild card. If we get 25 80 .265 from Duda and 15 70 .270 25 SBs from the Nieieenhuis/Cowgill platoon and add one more solid outfielder (Bourn)? and a decent performance out of the new pen and why not contend this year?

[jomota]

Why can't our top three starters all go something like 14-11 and Marcum and Gee 12-9? Add in 3 wins from Wheeler and 3 more spot start wins from Mejia, Familia and Hefner and that's 72 wins. If the pen goes .500 the team wins 87 games and has a shot to make a July move to make a run at the wild card. If we get 25 80 .265 from Duda and 15 70 .270 25 SBs from the Nieieenhuis/Cowgill platoon and add one more solid outfielder (Bourn)? and a decent performance out of the new pen and why not contend this year?

Certainly sounds simple.

[YoungStuna28]

I don't know how anyone can predict something like RBI or wins and losses for pitchers. Those stats are out of the players control for the most part which is why those stats hold little to no weight these days.

[Paulie6986]

Certainly sounds simple.

Way too simple.

Too many "ifs" give me the yips......

[rdg515]

"I don't know how anyone can predict something like RBI or wins and losses for pitchers. Those stats are out of the players control for the most part which is why those stats hold little to no weight these days."

Its called 'projecting'. Marcum averages 13-9 3.70 over the last six years...it is reasonable to project a similar record in year 7 if healthy. Niese has emerged as a 13-16 game winner....Santana if healthy and Harvey if steady should produce similar results. And nowhere am I predicting a 20 win season from any of them---I figured Dickey was good for 15-16 wins last year....career years are the only thing folks should not try to 'predict'. Same thing for Wright and Davis...past performance suggests they will combine for 50 HR and 200 RBIs...Buck in 400 ABs has gone 16 60 .270 over the course of a few seasons [cannot fathom how he went from .280 to .196 suddenly---he is hard to 'project']. The goal should be 90+ wins any way they can get them but a team that scores 700+ runs with an ERA under 3.80 is usually a contender....and those stats are achievable if we add a Bourn and a Valverde type to this roster. Going from 74 wins to 88+ means you don't have 22 starts from fringy guys who go 3-13 6.50 and six bullpeners who combined to go 6-17 6.30 like they hd last year. 9-30 6.45 from a bunch that is mostly gone from the roster. Turn that into a .500 record of 20-19 3.85 and you're at 85 wins or better.

[YoungStuna28]

"I don't know how anyone can predict something like RBI or wins and losses for pitchers. Those stats are out of the players control for the most part which is why those stats hold little to no weight these days."

Its called 'projecting'. Marcum averages 13-9 3.70 over the last six years...it is reasonable to project a similar record in year 7 if healthy. Niese has emerged as a 13-16 game winner....Santana if healthy and Harvey if steady should produce similar results. And nowhere am I predicting a 20 win season from any of them---I figured Dickey was good for 15-16 wins last year....career years are the only thing folks should not try to 'predict'. Same thing for Wright and Davis...past performance suggests they will combine for 50 HR and 200 RBIs...Buck in 400 ABs has gone 16 60 .270 over the course of a few seasons [cannot fathom how he went from .280 to .196 suddenly---he is hard to 'project']. The goal should be 90+ wins any way they can get them but a team that scores 700+ runs with an ERA under 3.80 is usually a contender....and those stats are achievable if we add a Bourn and a Valverde type to this roster. Going from 74 wins to 88+ means you don't have 22 starts from fringy guys who go 3-13 6.50 and six bullpeners who combined to go 6-17 6.30 like they hd last year. 9-30 6.45 from a bunch that is mostly gone from the roster. Turn that into a .500 record of 20-19 3.85 and you're at 85 wins or better.

....

Dickey won 8 games in 2011 with a 3.29 ERA I believe. Trying to project wins by pitchers is meaningless.

[Marty Mcfly]

Realistic expectations?

Another wasted season which ends in July (if they start badly, June), and was really sunk before it even began, no attempt to even try and win or improve the team, leaves the Mets cheaper to run for the Coupons but no better on the field.

Meanwhile Washington and Atlanta who did improve their teams, sail further off into the distance than before on their yachts, as Alderson's phony baloney rebuild creaks along like an old paddle steamer trailing in their wake, endlessly creating new excuses not to spend money. It's ok for Captain Spindy, in another couple of years he gets on the lifeboat and gets hauled aboard the SS MLB FRONT OFFICE, for a top job, his last mission, steering the Mets round and round around Manhatten until everyone gets dizzy - accomplished.

That's my expectations of the charade we're currently watching.

[kyubi256]

I think we'll be around 75-80 wins. But I'm hoping for less than 70 so we can get a top pick next year. I don't think we are a legitimate contender this year so might as well rebuild

[Marty Mcfly]

Why can't our top three starters all go something like 14-11 and Marcum and Gee 12-9? Add in 3 wins from Wheeler and 3 more spot start wins from Mejia, Familia and Hefner and that's 72 wins. If the pen goes .500 the team wins 87 games and has a shot to make a July move to make a run at the wild card. If we get 25 80 .265 from Duda and 15 70 .270 25 SBs from the Nieieenhuis/Cowgill platoon and add one more solid outfielder (Bourn)? and a decent performance out of the new pen and why not contend this year?

Are you seriously saying that adding up win by the SP's makes you a winner now?

If there's a more meaningless stat in baseball than pitcher wins, I don't know it.

[acerimusdux]

I think it's a 77-80 win team right now, 82-85 wins if they add Bourn.

[Wrigheyes4MVP]

70 - 75 wins realistically.

But who knows...anything can happen. Look at the A's and Orioles of last season.

[KnIckFaN.2883]

i think between seventy to eighty games is reasonable.I do think we need to get some good outfielders out there but i just don't want the FO to sign people to bad contracts.If that means we wait a year to get an better outfielder i would be for it.