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  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    That's a good example of the best team not always winning. Not sure what you are arguing against.
    What... You were saying that regular season is a good example to predict the NBA champions. You're telling me people expected Dallas to win during the regular season? What are you arguing against? You're contradicting yourself to the point where you're confused. The Playoffs is a different atmosphere. You think the LAL being in the eighth seed means they are going to lose easily?

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardaway Here View Post
    There is no rule the better team wins plain and simple
    You can believe this if you want, but it's not true. If you take every single regular season game and every single playoff game, the random variation remains the same. The better team wins in the playoffs for one single game at the same exact rate as they do in the regular season.

  3. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by OceanSpray View Post
    What... You were saying that regular season is a good example to predict the NBA champions. You're telling me people expected Dallas to win during the regular season? What are you arguing against? You're contradicting yourself to the point where you're confused. The Playoffs is a different atmosphere. You think the LAL being in the eighth seed means they are going to lose easily?
    I said the best team only wins 53 percent of the time and than I said the team with the easier path is the team most likely to win a title. It's why you have a low rate of the best teams winning the nba championship. I am not exactly sure what you are arguing for or against.

    That the regular season is useless for predicting and doesn't matter what happens at all?

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    I said the best team only wins 53 percent of the time and than I said the team with the easier path is the team most likely to win a title. It's why you have a low rate of the best teams winning the nba championship. I am not exactly sure what you are arguing for or against.

    That the regular season is useless for predicting and doesn't matter what happens at all?

    "It's not record, you use the SRS.

    Secondly, using passed games to predict the playoffs is the most accurate way. Check out each playoff series and check out who won the regular season match up. The team that wins the regular season series wins the playoff series more often than not.

    There is stock to put in regular season match ups and to ignore it is silly. "

    That is what you posted.

    Regular season doesn't mean anything. Please stop the garbage. You keep saying "most likely", "most of the time." If the better team does lose, you'll just say "Well, most of the time they win." I seriously don't know how that works.

  5. #110
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    Yeah, typically the team higher in the SRS will win the series. However, thanks to multiple series and random variation the best team only wins it all 53 percent of the time, but the series 75 percent of time. Which is why it is so important to get the easier path because the variation increases the lower the gap between teams. I don't get what is so hard to understand about that.

  6. #111
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    Bs

    Battle of the Tanks

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    Random variation, brusky. You need to use the entire sample or else you will be taking small samples and be saying "see, it's not true."

    Heat were better than the Mavericks in 2011, but lost. But the Bulls were better than the Heat and won. Playoffs are a crapshoot, which is why the team with the easiest path will usually win it all.
    Random variation? From a 14 year sample size?

    The easier way to throw out numbers is the bring up the contender that was the healthiest, not your b.s. easiest path, which I just showed you was bogus. The best team wins, regardless of path.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  8. #113
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    The Playoffs aren't necessarily a crap shoot... I can definitely see you make the argument for the NFL playoffs which is one game and anything can happen.

    However the NBA is a 7 game series. If a team beats you 4 times it's most likely that they are better than you.

  9. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    It's not record, you use the SRS.

    Secondly, using passed games to predict the playoffs is the most accurate way. Check out each playoff series and check out who won the regular season match up. The team that wins the regular season series wins the playoff series more often than not.

    There is stock to put in regular season match ups and to ignore it is silly.
    using SRS does tell us who the better team is, but the playoffs are about momentum, and teams that knew they were contenders resting, and pacing themselves over an 82 game schedule, versus trying to prove to the world they are the best team. This is why the Thunder or Heat a year prior, lost.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  10. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye15 View Post
    using SRS does tell us who the better team is, but the playoffs are about momentum, and teams that knew they were contenders resting, and pacing themselves over an 82 game schedule, versus trying to prove to the world they are the best team. This is why the Thunder or Heat a year prior, lost.
    Momentum is very much a myth in every sport, basically. There are countless examples disproving it every single year in every single sport. For someone who uses stats you should know that an easier path will lead to getting farther. You should know momentum is a myth.

    And you should also know the best team doesn't always win. Can't believe you said the best team wins regardless of path. I expected you to have a better understanding of statistics than that, especially since you use advanced stats.

  11. #116
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    Please define "best team."

    Please define "easiest path."

    Thanks.

  12. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by gotoHcarolina52 View Post
    Please define "best team."

    Please define "easiest path."

    Thanks.
    Look up SRS or you can just use point differential.

    Easiest path is varying degree of difficulty through out the playoffs.

    Assuming both the Thunder and the Heat get the first seed.

    First round
    Thunder vs. Twolves/Rockets/Lakers/Blazers
    Heat vs. Celtics/Bucks/Sixers/Raptors

    As you can see with the first round match up the Thunder has a much greater potential for a let down because they are playing better teams.

    Second Round
    Thunder vs. Clippers/Spurs/Grizzlies
    Heat vs. Nets/Pacers/Bulls

    CF
    Thunder vs. Spurs/Clippers
    Heat vs. Knicks/Bulls

    Now, when using the SRS to judge each team you can tell that the Thunder is playing against a great level of competition through out the playoffs, so if you do many simulations, the Heat would win more finals, because there is much less potential for upsets in their match ups.

  13. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    Momentum is very much a myth in every sport, basically.
    not in basketball. If you are talking about sports where you win and move on, or lose and go home, agreed. Momentum means your team is healthy, and clicking. That means a lot in basketball, over long, drawn out series.

    There are countless examples disproving it every single year in every single sport. For someone who uses stats you should know that an easier path will lead to getting farther. You should know momentum is a myth.
    I used a simple stat. Since Jordan retired, the west has been flat out better. There is no argument there. And they have won 10/14 rings, despite having a "tougher" path to the finals, which you stated is a negative. This is false, period. Admit you were wrong on that statement, its right in front of you.

    And you should also know the best team doesn't always win. Can't believe you said the best team wins regardless of path. I expected you to have a better understanding of statistics than that, especially since you use advanced stats.
    The elite team with the best health is the best determiner, though sometimes the team with the better player if they are an all-timer just overcomes. I mean, I for sure agree with the SRS argument in the first round or so, but after that, its about who is hot, and who is playing better, and quite frankly, at this moment, every team in the west could have a stronger SRS number than the Heat, but they don't have Bron.

    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.

  14. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkeye15 View Post
    not in basketball. If you are talking about sports where you win and move on, or lose and go home, agreed. Momentum means your team is healthy, and clicking. That means a lot in basketball, over long, drawn out series.



    I used a simple stat. Since Jordan retired, the west has been flat out better. There is no argument there. And they have won 10/14 rings, despite having a "tougher" path to the finals, which you stated is a negative. This is false, period. Admit you were wrong on that statement, its right in front of you.



    The elite team with the best health is the best determiner, though sometimes the team with the better player if they are an all-timer just overcomes. I mean, I for sure agree with the SRS argument in the first round or so, but after that, its about who is hot, and who is playing better, and quite frankly, at this moment, every team in the west could have a stronger SRS number than the Heat, but they don't have Bron.
    10/14 west teams won, because it is more likely the better team wins each individual series. However, that doesn't matter at all because the best teams aren't winning every single year. A superior west teams ends up facing off a weaker Eastern team, but that inferior East team will likely win more over a large sample because the west teams are going to have a lot more variance because there are a lot of good teams.

    Switch the Heat and Thunder (Using playoff odds to determine match ups and than assume the better team wins each match up)

    Do you think the Heat would have an easier time getting to the finals vs the Rockets, Grizzlies, Spurs or the Celtics, Nets, Knicks.

  15. #120
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    Who is stern gonna make win this year?

    #81

    67 Rec - 1038 Yards -6 TD

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