Baseball Myths

[jej]

There is little to no evidence of protection having an effect in baseball at all.

[jej]

My question to you is why do you feel so strongly about this? How can you be so confident in believing something without any evidence. Maybe it's just me, but I just can't do that. I need factual reasons why to believe in something.

[Cheezombie]

K, well that's not what you said lol.

When I said 1st and 2nd, I wasn't talking about the specific spots in the order. What I meant was that you want your high OBP players in the first spots of the order(1,2), with the power guys coming up after the high on base guys.

[jej]

Exactly, that's not the same as 4 1 2 5 3

[Cheezombie]

Exactly, that's not the same as 4 1 2 5 3

You're being way too simplistic.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...your-lineup-by

[jej]

You're being way too simplistic.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...your-lineup-by

No, I'm not. You are changing your story.

I agree with that article. I didnt specify anything but that being the general rule. You do want your best hitters in that order. Sure, you would prefer speed at the top and power in the 4 hole, but those come behind just having your best overall hitters in that order.

Yeah, if my best hitter was slower than hell, and I had a speedy guy that wasn't too far behind, then I would adjust for that. But that's not really what I was talking about

[SpecialFNK]

My question to you is why do you feel so strongly about this? How can you be so confident in believing something without any evidence. Maybe it's just me, but I just can't do that. I need factual reasons why to believe in something.

millions of people believe God exists, but are there any actual evidence to show that yes God exists because of "this".

do baseball players themselves believe that protection exists? I believe they believe. if it's in their head I would think that's enough. but that doesn't mean the outcome will be good or bad, because there are so many other reasons for whatever outcome could/would happen.

maybe it could be broken down to what protection means. I don't think protection means that player A batting in front of good player B means player A should/will have better numbers. but that the pitcher could pitch to batter A differently based on whether it's good batter B or bad player C.

the Tigers were mentioned, so just an example.
game 1. Cabrera is at the plate with Fielder on deck, and pitcher A pitching.
game 2. Cabrera is at the plate, someone other than Fielder is on deck. but in game 2, it's pitcher B pitching.
game 3. Cabrera is at the plate, another batter other than Fielder is on deck, but it's pitcher C pitching.
game 4. Cabrera is at the plate, and some scrub is on deck, with pitcher D pitching.
(although in a 4 game series against the Tigers, how many of them are not going to have Fielder following Cabera?)
every different game it's a different pitcher, and not all pitchers have the same repertoire of pitches they use in certain situations. plus there are so many different outcomes that can occur that are not even connected to who the batter is or who is on deck. thousands of different variables that can cause whatever effects to happen.
every single situation is different and can't be grouped together, so obviously every single situation is going to be a small sample size regardless of the outcome.
in game 4 for example, isn't it likely Cabrera would get walked more? that's still evidence that the pitcher is pitching differently to the batter based on who is on deck. (but how often would someone like Cabrera be followe by a bad scrub player?) now it might not be an intentional walk, but the pitcher can know scrub is on deck so don't give Cabrera anything in his zone, but instead use the scouting report and pitch to where he doesn't have as much success hoping he can get himself out. but if he walks, so what because scrub is up and less likely to hurt you than Cabrera even with Cabrera on base.
your better hitters are going to be good hitters regardless, but they can still be pitched too differently based on who could potentially be up next.

sometimes I feel like I can't always explain it how I think of it in my head, and I don't want to write some big essay trying to get across what I mean or what I'm thinking.

[jej]

Also, IMO, while I do want a guy in the 4 hole who can, for lack of a better term, "drive in runs", I also don't want that to be a guy who is going to K, 25% of the time and kill rallies. As the article said, he comes up in the most important spots. So I'm not looking for power AS MUCH as I am another guy than can get on base am keep it moving. Like speed at the top, power is a secondary luxury to have.

But if I have a .525 SLG guy who Ks 25% of the time, and a .500 SLG guy who Ks 19% of the time, I'll take the latter in those situations.

[jej]

millions of people believe God exists, but are there any actual evidence to show that yes God exists because of "this".

do baseball players themselves believe that protection exists? I believe they believe. if it's in their head I would think that's enough. but that doesn't mean the outcome will be good or bad, because there are so many other reasons for whatever outcome could/would happen.

maybe it could be broken down to what protection means. I don't think protection means that player A batting in front of good player B means player A should/will have better numbers. but that the pitcher could pitch to batter A differently based on whether it's good batter B or bad player C.

the Tigers were mentioned, so just an example.
game 1. Cabrera is at the plate with Fielder on deck, and pitcher A pitching.
game 2. Cabrera is at the plate, someone other than Fielder is on deck. but in game 2, it's pitcher B pitching.
game 3. Cabrera is at the plate, another batter other than Fielder is on deck, but it's pitcher C pitching.
game 4. Cabrera is at the plate, and some scrub is on deck, with pitcher D pitching.
(although in a 4 game series against the Tigers, how many of them are not going to have Fielder following Cabera?)
every different game it's a different pitcher, and not all pitchers have the same repertoire of pitches they use in certain situations. plus there are so many different outcomes that can occur that are not even connected to who the batter is or who is on deck. thousands of different variables that can cause whatever effects to happen.
every single situation is different and can't be grouped together, so obviously every single situation is going to be a small sample size regardless of the outcome.
in game 4 for example, isn't it likely Cabrera would get walked more? that's still evidence that the pitcher is pitching differently to the batter based on who is on deck. now it might not be an intentional walk, but the pitcher can know scrub is on deck so don't give Cabrera anything in his zone, but instead use the scouting report and pitch to where he doesn't have as much success hoping he can get himself out. but if he walks, so what because scrub is up and less likely to hurt you than Cabrera even with Cabrera on base.
your better hitters are going to be good hitters regardless, but they can still be pitched too differently based on who could potentially be up next.

sometimes I feel like I can't always explain it how I think of it in my head, and I don't want to write some big essay trying to get across what I mean or what I'm thinking.

I don't understand what you are saying in the first paragraph. I am not religious for the same reason as I stated before. There isn't evidence. I don't see what you are trying to get at? Cause I wonder the same thing about them in that situation that I do about you in this case.

Bringing up the fact that there are different pitchers doesn't help your argument. There are always going to e different pitchers. If that mattered, we wouldn't be able to use any comparative stats.

[Cheezombie]

No, I'm not. You are changing your story.

I agree with that article. I didnt specify anything but that being the general rule. You do want your best hitters in that order. Sure, you would prefer speed at the top and power in the 4 hole, but those come behind just having your best overall hitters in that order.

Yeah, if my best hitter was slower than hell, and I had a speedy guy that wasn't too far behind, then I would adjust for that. But that's not really what I was talking about

I changed nothing. I am sorry that you misinterpreted what I said.

I said nothing about speedy guys, I was talking pure production, OBP and Power. Your order took a simplistic approach without taking into account the abilities of each player. In your lineup rule, the .400 wOBA hitter should be 4th with the .395 wOBA hitter leadoff. What data was missing though was that the .400 wOBA hitter was all OBP with no power while the .395 wOBA hitter had power. The lineup would not be optimized because you'd have your power guy hitting leadoff with your no power all OBP guy hitting cleanup. Your lineup rule generally ends up being the case as a result of the abilities that each position requires, but is not gospel.

[Guppyfighter]

millions of people believe God exists, but are there any actual evidence to show that yes God exists because of "this".

do baseball players themselves believe that protection exists? I believe they believe. if it's in their head I would think that's enough. but that doesn't mean the outcome will be good or bad, because there are so many other reasons for whatever outcome could/would happen.

maybe it could be broken down to what protection means. I don't think protection means that player A batting in front of good player B means player A should/will have better numbers. but that the pitcher could pitch to batter A differently based on whether it's good batter B or bad player C.

the Tigers were mentioned, so just an example.
game 1. Cabrera is at the plate with Fielder on deck, and pitcher A pitching.
game 2. Cabrera is at the plate, someone other than Fielder is on deck. but in game 2, it's pitcher B pitching.
game 3. Cabrera is at the plate, another batter other than Fielder is on deck, but it's pitcher C pitching.
game 4. Cabrera is at the plate, and some scrub is on deck, with pitcher D pitching.
(although in a 4 game series against the Tigers, how many of them are not going to have Fielder following Cabera?)
every different game it's a different pitcher, and not all pitchers have the same repertoire of pitches they use in certain situations. plus there are so many different outcomes that can occur that are not even connected to who the batter is or who is on deck. thousands of different variables that can cause whatever effects to happen.
every single situation is different and can't be grouped together, so obviously every single situation is going to be a small sample size regardless of the outcome.
in game 4 for example, isn't it likely Cabrera would get walked more? that's still evidence that the pitcher is pitching differently to the batter based on who is on deck. (but how often would someone like Cabrera be followe by a bad scrub player?) now it might not be an intentional walk, but the pitcher can know scrub is on deck so don't give Cabrera anything in his zone, but instead use the scouting report and pitch to where he doesn't have as much success hoping he can get himself out. but if he walks, so what because scrub is up and less likely to hurt you than Cabrera even with Cabrera on base.
your better hitters are going to be good hitters regardless, but they can still be pitched too differently based on who could potentially be up next.

sometimes I feel like I can't always explain it how I think of it in my head, and I don't want to write some big essay trying to get across what I mean or what I'm thinking.

Well, God's not real either so I don't see your point.

The rest of your argument is arguing the placebo affect, but that doesn't even work because there is no statistical difference. If there was one, we'd see it in the stats.

[SpecialFNK]

Bringing up the fact that there are different pitchers doesn't help your argument. There are always going to e different pitchers. If that mattered, we wouldn't be able to use any comparative stats.

I think that's what I'm saying.
if the pitchers are always different, then how can you compare them all together?

if Cabrera was batting with Fielder on deck with pitcher A pitching 100 times, then it has to be compared to Cabrera batting without Fielder, with pitcher A pitching 100 times. if it's pitcher B/C/D/E/ect then they have to be compared separate, because the outcome could be based on the specific pitchers and not because of Cabrera or Fielder or any other batter.
if pitcher A is David Price and pitcher B is Luke Hochevar, then the results could be determined by the difference in those pitchers regardless of who is batting.

in these studies, are they taking into account who was pitching? because that can make a difference.

[SpecialFNK]

Well, God's not real either so I don't see your point.

that's your opinion.
there are people who would die because of how much they believe. to them God is as real as anything.

[jej]

I think that's what I'm saying.
if the pitchers are always different, then how can you compare them all together?

if Cabrera was batting with Fielder on deck with pitcher A pitching 100 times, then it has to be compared to Cabrera batting without Fielder, with pitcher A pitching 100 times. if it's pitcher B/C/D/E/ect then they have to be compared separate, because the outcome could be based on the specific pitchers and not because of Cabrera or Fielder or any other batter.
if pitcher A is David Price and pitcher B is Luke Hochevar, then the results could be determined by the difference in those pitchers regardless of who is batting.

in these studies, are they taking into account who was pitching? because that can make a difference.

No it doesn't. No one faces the same pitchers the same amount of times as someone else. So you are insinuating we can never compare any two players because they don't face the same pitchers? Wow

[jej]

I changed nothing. I am sorry that you misinterpreted what I said.

I said nothing about speedy guys, I was talking pure production, OBP and Power. Your order took a simplistic approach without taking into account the abilities of each player. In your lineup rule, the .400 wOBA hitter should be 4th with the .395 wOBA hitter leadoff. What data was missing though was that the .400 wOBA hitter was all OBP with no power while the .395 wOBA hitter had power. The lineup would not be optimized because you'd have your power guy hitting leadoff with your no power all OBP guy hitting cleanup. Your lineup rule generally ends up being the case as a result of the abilities that each position requires, but is not gospel.

I didnt go that detailed because that wasn't my point. I agree with what you said. If its that close, then I would adjust for hitting styles. But overall, I would put my most reliable hitters in that order.