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Thread: Baseball Myths

  1. #361
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    That's 300 at bats lol.

    That's what, half a season for a guy in the middle of his peak?

    As said above, a relatively good sample size for PA for lineup protection needs to be at least 600 PA to have any merit (a seasons worth) and even then, that's still small.

    And you have to isolate the variable. All I have to do is take what he said and change it to batting in second helped him because a fast guy was on base. It's the same statement.

    He is taking a small sample and committing the correlation causation fallacy, while ignoring all other data that contradicts this.

  2. #362
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    Since when are "pitch selection, the number of pitches in the strike zone, contact on pitches in the zone, contact with pitches outside of the zone, swinging strike percentage," et al not actual on field realities?

    None of his numbers show significant variance in actual games that can be correlated to having Pujols behind him.

    And as Jeffy pointed out 190 ABs is really not a statistically significant sample size for an individual batter.


    SpecialFNK, Ludwick hit approximately 0.260 over your quoted 438 At-Bats.

    His career average is 0.263.

    Do I really need to explain why that is not statistically significant?
    Last edited by IceHawk-181; 01-30-2013 at 05:58 PM.

  3. #363
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpecialFNK View Post
    ..yet Ludwick's actual on field numbers, you know the numbers that count, were better batting in front of Pujols compared to batting behind him in 2 other different spots.
    even if it was just in Ludwick's head that he felt better with Pujols batting behind him.
    protection.
    It's pretty funny then that in 2012, Ryan Ludwick has done significantly better when having nobody behind him and just produced his best season since 20008 with Miguel Cairo and an aging Scott Rolen getting the majority of PA behind him all season.

    Keep throwing examples this way, they are easy to knock down.

    With Ludwick, the sample size is small. But 2012 really debunks protection for him. It was a career year in 08, where nobody knew him and nobody knew what to throw him. He benefitted from several things....Pujols batting third isn't one of them.

  4. #364
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    ya know, Joey Votto is one of the best hitters in the game in 2012. But he only played 111 games.

    Know how the Reds 2 hitters did when Votto was in the lineup vs not in the lineup?

    Both insanely ******, with an OPS right around .700 with no true variance in their numbers whether it was Stubbs, Cozart, or Heisey.

    It's funny too, because Baker believes in lineup protection and having speed at the top of the lineup, and his 1 and 2 hitters are the worst in baseball and on a playoff caliber team too.

    Joey Votto has to carry that lineup most of the year. Fortunately for him he has Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Todd Frazier later in the lineup and a good rotation.

  5. #365
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    Quote Originally Posted by IceHawk-181 View Post
    And SpecialFNK, while you are doing that analysis do not forget to graph the data and determine the actual existence of a correlation.

    EDIT:
    Also, fun fact about Ludwick's Fastball percentage.

    His career FB% is 55.8%, so his 57% Fastballs with Pujols behind him is not a significant increase.

    Imagine that.

    EDIT: And because it takes approximately 30 seconds to do...another stat:

    Ludwick's Career percentage of pitches in the strike zone = 48.6%

    In front of Pujols 2010? 48.2%

    As in no significant statistical change.
    yup.


    I don't see how the numbers can be so consistent with every player (I had never looked up Ludwick before for the sake of this discussion, but was confident the results would yield the same results) and people still believe in the 'myth' of lineup protection helping a hitter.

  6. #366
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    And we have to consider confounding variables. This increase was when he was batting in the two hole. The leadoff hitter is typically fast and a threat to steal. I find it far more likely this increase came from when the runner was on first base and a threat to steal.
    Well in 08, the leadoff hitter was usually Skip Schumaker, and he wasn't the greatest hitter. And although a slight threat to steal, he was only 8 for 10 in that spot all season. Ludwick on the season only had a man on first base 111 times for him all season long (which he carried a .919 OPS during those PA).

    There are a lot of variables to prepare for. But considering the pitches he saw were not different and the location was not different, I believe it's safe to say this theory is debunked.

  7. #367
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatriotsGirl View Post
    I think it's definitely more fun to hit when there are men on base - then you don't have such a far away goal.
    I personally believe it's much harder to give the at bat away, then if there are two outs and nobody on in a blow out game.

  8. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpecialFNK View Post
    ..yet Ludwick's actual on field numbers, you know the numbers that count, were better batting in front of Pujols compared to batting behind him in 2 other different spots.
    even if it was just in Ludwick's head that he felt better with Pujols batting behind him.
    protection.
    And it couldn't have just been a one year statistic anomaly? He saw no more fastballs, he saw no more pitches in the zone.....he just had a good year. People have already pointed out Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier (how Kemp was better in 2011 but Ethier was better in 2012) as an example.

    Essentially, your only defense has been to arbitrarily claim that Ryan Ludwick was best in 2008 because of Albert Pujols, yet, almost every statistic disproves this. It's a simple case of correlation and causation. Sure, in 2008, Albert Pujols batting behind Ryan Ludwick seems to have some correlation (despite every statistic which says it doesn't, but lets just pretend we don't know about them). The problem is the claim of causation, that Albert Pujols' presence was the cause of Ryan Ludwick's season. For an example of this, I refer you to the curious case of Homer Simpson's Tiger-preventing rock (click the link, watch the video). In the same sense that the rock's presence and tiger's lack-of-presence appear to correlate, the rock has no more affect of the population of tigers in Springfield as Albert Pujols had on Ryan Ludwick. Neither was the cause of the outcome. You're clearly mixing up the two.
    #ClutchTime

  9. #369
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    props for getting Homer in this thread!

  10. #370
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    props for getting Homer in this thread!
    /takes a bow.

    I've used that video in my classrooms before for the difference between correlation and causation. Granted, I use that video on 6th graders, so I'm a little saddened that I have to use it now, but hey, "the more you know".....right?
    #ClutchTime

  11. #371
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    Do not feel bad, I use similar examples on undergraduate Sophomores and Juniors!

    It gets the point across.

  12. #372
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    I haven't read every post in this thread, but I think I've got a pretty good idea of what's been discussed. So if this was already said or it's not what you guys have been talking about just ignore it and tell I'm wrong. So here it goes...

    Did anyone notice that Pujols wasn't protecting Ludwick because Ludwick batted behind Pujols during his good days in St. Louis?

    Shailene Woodley

  13. #373
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    Well someone posted ludwicks stats from 2010, and split it into Batting 2, batting 4 and batting 5th or something, and his stats were better when batting 2nd. And he thinks that that one year sample is enough data, and that 190 PA in front of Pujols proves he was protected.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  14. #374
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    So because of one season he protected him? And did he separate the times he batted 2nd with the Padres and Cards?

    I see what the fuss was about now.
    Last edited by SFrush90; 01-30-2013 at 09:41 PM.

    Shailene Woodley

  15. #375
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    Wow, I don't think I have ever seen this before....

    -SABR lovers attacking more traditional users because they think there right and the others are wrong, and vice-versa

    -All convo's getting completely off topic.

    Man, this is all so new.

    /sarcasm


    If you think SABR is better, and should be the end-all, that is YOUR OPINION. Same goes if you are a traditional user. In all honesty, they are both imperfect stats. Neither is better then the other. *BOTH* should be used to get as much info as possible. The only way to truly know for sure how good someone really is, is to watch them. (Anyway, not getting into this argument) I use both stats. But some SABR-heads remind me of Nazis I swear.

    Why is it when we talk about one topic, somebody brings up a subject, then boom! Screw the topic of the thread lets have a cat fight lol
    New York Yankees
    FC Bayern Munchen


    Bundesliga: Wins- 25 / Draw- 3 / Loss- 2
    DFB-Pokal-Wins- 5 / Loss- 0 Finals vs Borussia Dortmund
    Champions League- Semi-Finals vs. Real Madrid.

    1st Leg- April 23rd in Madrid.
    2nd Leg- April 29th in Munich.

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