AdamRubinESPN GM: Bourn, Lyon lone players still on radar es.pn/11KsnAc
AdamRubinESPN GM: Bourn, Lyon lone players still on radar es.pn/11KsnAc
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Is bourne really that good that he makes us an 85 win team? I do want him and I'm not worried about the pick but some of u talk about him as if he's beltron 2004.
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Bourn is projected to be a 4.6 WAR player in 2013 by Fangraphs.
On the Mets, where our present OF situation is basically living in the negative WAR realm, he's probably worth more than 5 wins based on his overall ability.
Plus he stabilizes the most crucial defensive position in the OF and probable increases the chances that the Mets can put some good bats out there in LF and RF. He certainly makes it easier to fill OF holes in the future.
I think I just typed WAR too much. What the hell is happening to me??
Yes but we'd be an 80 win team with a solid rotation and what should be a solid bullpen (pending Lyon signing). Not to mention the depth we have in pitching... Like I said before, signing Bourn would make the Mets a Lucas Duda breakout season away from being a really competitive team.
#oneatatime
It's really hard to put a gauge on this team.
I think their floor is 68-70 wins and their ceiling with Bourn could be 80-83 games.
Without Bourn i still say 75-77 wins.
Just my opinion though and we all know what opinions are like.
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SA already said he won't sign Bourn for 5 years and lose the pick..
I still think the deal will be 1-3 year deal ( which is perfect ) and possibly even keep the pick.. But losing the pick for 3 years worth of Bourn is good in my opinion.
SA won't do this deal unless it's on his terms. He won't ruin his plan after going this far.
#oneatatime
This..
Baxter has probably the most value of all our starting OFs unless Kirk improves at the plate and Duda improves significantly at the plate and somewhat on defense.
Brown and Cowgill will probably also have slightly positive WAR value based on their platooning.
Last edited by metswon69; 02-04-2013 at 03:54 PM.
This is true, but for those people thinking we would be an 85 win team with Bourn...that would mean we would be an 80 win team as is.
We all know this is not true.
We are a 70 win team today...if we want to be realistic with ourselves.
We won 74 games last season, and the only moves we have made this season have been lateral moves. These may have been smart lateral moves to make us younger and more well rounded, but still lateral moves.
Our bullpen can and should be much better, but lets face it...we still have massive issues there.
Our offense still sucks, and the only thing we did to improve it was to trade our Cy Young winner. And we may not even be improved for all we know. Remember...we lost our best OFer from last year...and career best year from Scott Hairston.
Overall, we are younger and this offseason helped build toward that youth, but you are kidding yourselves if you think we actually improved this offseason.
I think we made enough smaller moves to win about 70 games this year (Solid BP moves, OF minor league additions that could make an impact on the big league squad, and I love the Marcum signing).
Still though, it SHOULDN'T be expected that we win more games than last year.
Adding Bourn would make us about a 75 win team. That is being realistic.
Having said all that, these are just realistic projections based on facts. That DOES NOT mean this team can't overachieve. Unforseen things can happen. The A's and O's are examples of that. These types of things happen every year. It is entirely possible it could happen for us. So, I am not saying that signing Bourn is a futile idea.
However, there is risk involved in this move (particularly in the long term) that may not be worth the likely reward.
Last edited by Wrigheyes4MVP; 02-04-2013 at 03:40 PM.
If they wait they will def keep the pick. Im not a huge bourn guy. Id like to see them just stick with what they have(or dont have) for this yr n sign elsbury who has wayyyyy more versatility in the order plus our pick should be protected next year. Too many people are caught up in this year to be competitive. With wheeler and darnaud and wutever other prospects comming up this is no time to give up picks for a 30 yr old outfielder who strikes out and can only leadoff. Wait till nxt year when we have more money and most likely a protected pick
Is there a time frame if Bourn doesn't sign by X date, there is no longer draft pick attached to him.
ok thanks. He will def sign a one year deal by then.
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