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  1. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    You want a contender ASAP?

    Well then i would suggest you use that Delorean and fast forward to 2014 because it's not happening this year with or without Bourn.

    As for your feelings on WAR, i gave you all the statistical proof in relation to how it determines a player's value and how almost exact it is in determining how well a team will perform based on that cumulative value.

    It's not some kind of accident or coincidence.

    Sabermetrics do not take out the human element, they account for situational hitting, situational pitching (the clutch gene as so many like to call it), baserunning, etc etc.

    They also go a step further and measure how individual player's affect their team's performance on a per play basis.

    It's called WPA...

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa/

    And we'll not be contending any sooner by waiting...

    I don't care what it is called, no stat advanced or otherwise can tell me for sure how many games my team will win 10 months in advance, I do know however that a team with less talent on it, will far more likely win less games than team with more talent on it.

    WAR is the dullest of tools, it tells me what I already know, that good players are good and bad players are bad. It's also used by people to as some kind of invincible nerd internet death star, as if WAR rating has replaced every other means of discussing or analyzing the game whether it's stat based or not.

    I do know the two teams ahead of us just got better again, we need to start making up ground ASAP not continue to lose it, in the hope that all the magic beans grow into superstars.

  2. #287
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marty Mcfly View Post
    And we'll not be contending any sooner by waiting...

    I don't care what it is called, no stat advanced or otherwise can tell me for sure how many games my team will win 10 months in advance, I do know however that a team with less talent on it, will far more likely win less games than team with more talent on it.

    WAR is the dullest of tools, it tells me what I already know, that good players are good and bad players are bad. It's also used by people to as some kind of invincible nerd internet death star, as if WAR rating has replaced every other means of discussing or analyzing the game whether it's stat based or not.

    I do know the two teams ahead of us just got better again, we need to start making up ground ASAP not continue to lose it, in the hope that all the magic beans grow into superstars.
    Projection goes based on career resumes but it's not exact with guys who have minimal playing experience.

    With guys like Scott Hairston, Shaun Marcum, and more established veterans it's pretty consistent (and on point) from a year to year basis unless the player is injured or has a down year.

    And if you are arguing that point, i would suggest you've made your career evaluations on guys like Kirk, Baxter, Valdespin after half a season of seeing them basically burying any chance of them having a more significant impact than they already have.

    What dullest of tools?

    It gives us a lot more information than the traditional statline where focus is put on statistics like RBIS and BA (and defensively Fielding %). Those numbers are not great indicators of how good a player is or how important he is to a team.

    Look at Ryan Howard. The guy hits 35+ homers, drives in 120+ runs a year (when healthy) and by that older standard of evaluating players he is an AS.

    Meanwhile he plays poor defense, strikes out a ton, doesn't hit well with RISP, and basically feeds that total off of the quantity of opportunities he has with men on base and his power.

    There is also hidden value in guys like Ben Zobrist who is a vastly underrated player considering his versatility, how well he plays different positions, and the offense he provides from those spots.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-28-2013 at 10:49 AM.

  3. #288
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    Some of you guys are jumping on the ASAP comment and ignoring the context of the thread.

    The argument for Bourn is simple. Those that are advocating signing him are making a case that he has more potential value to this team than the 11th draft pick because he is exactly the kind of player this team is desperately lacking. He would improve the team now, and would be a key contributor over the next 3-4 years in total - overlapping a period that we all hope will have the Mets as serious contenders. Signing him would lessen the burden of having to add to the major league roster in the years going forward. In addition, the market seems to be making him a favorable player for the Mets to pursue and sign.

    My interpretation of ASAP is start improving the team ASAP. There's nothing wrong with that thinking considering the Mets have accumulated some legitimate young talent on the cusp of making an impact.
    Go Grab My Belt

  4. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Projection goes based on career resumes but it's not exact with guys who have minimal playing experience.

    With guys like Scott Hairston, Shaun Marcum, and more established veterans it's pretty consistent (and on point) from a year to year basis unless the player is injured or has a down year.

    And if you are arguing that point, i would suggest you've made your career evaluations on guys like Kirk, Baxter, Valdespin after half a season of seeing them basically burying any chance of them having a more significant impact than they already have.

    What dullest of tools?

    It gives us a lot more information than the traditional statline where focus is put on statistics like RBIS and BA (and defensively Fielding %). Those numbers are not great indicators of how good a player is or how important he is to a team.

    Look at Ryan Howard. The guy hits 35+ homers, drives in 120+ runs a year (when healthy) and by that older standard of evaluating players he is an AS.

    Meanwhile he plays poor defense, strikes out a ton, doesn't hit well with RISP, and basically feeds that total off of the quantity of opportunities he has with men on base and his power.

    There is also hidden value in guys like Ben Zobrist who is a vastly underrated player considering his versatility, how well he plays different positions, and the offense he provides from those spots.

    I don't really care dude. I'm tired of waiting around, we're just losing ground.

  5. #290
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    Quote Originally Posted by GottaBelieve View Post
    Some of you guys are jumping on the ASAP comment and ignoring the context of the thread.

    The argument for Bourn is simple. Those that are advocating signing him are making a case that he has more potential value to this team than the 11th draft pick because he is exactly the kind of player this team is desperately lacking. He would improve the team now, and would be a key contributor over the next 3-4 years in total - overlapping a period that we all hope will have the Mets as serious contenders. Signing him would lessen the burden of having to add to the major league roster in the years going forward. In addition, the market seems to be making him a favorable player for the Mets to pursue and sign.

    My interpretation of ASAP is start improving the team ASAP. There's nothing wrong with that thinking considering the Mets have accumulated some legitimate young talent on the cusp of making an impact.


    Thank you. Exactly.

    Great minds think alike!

  6. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marty Mcfly View Post
    I don't really care dude. I'm tired of waiting around, we're just losing ground.
    Well we'll see what happens with Bourn..

    I seriously don't see us signing him unless somehow

    A) They get that pick protected..

    Or

    B) He signs for less than 5 years.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-28-2013 at 11:09 AM.

  7. #292
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marty Mcfly View Post
    I've not seen it either. It's got to the stage where people are now thinking that advanced stats are determining baseball, not the players and the games.
    They always have. That's why Stratomatic outsells tickets to MLB games.
    Last edited by Dugmet; 01-28-2013 at 11:32 AM.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  8. #293
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    Quote Originally Posted by GottaBelieve View Post
    Some of you guys are jumping on the ASAP comment and ignoring the context of the thread.

    The argument for Bourn is simple. Those that are advocating signing him are making a case that he has more potential value to this team than the 11th draft pick because he is exactly the kind of player this team is desperately lacking. He would improve the team now, and would be a key contributor over the next 3-4 years in total - overlapping a period that we all hope will have the Mets as serious contenders. Signing him would lessen the burden of having to add to the major league roster in the years going forward. In addition, the market seems to be making him a favorable player for the Mets to pursue and sign.
    Potentially and eventually...a player chosen with the 11th pick in the draft could be used in significant part to acquire a much better player than Michael Bourne -- like Giancarlo Stanton.

    The problem nowadays -- and what's changed the industry -- is that teams lose the allotted cash to sign draftees. The 11th pick represents a huge sum of money -- approximately $2.75 million.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  9. #294
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    Quote Originally Posted by GottaBelieve View Post
    Some of you guys are jumping on the ASAP comment and ignoring the context of the thread.

    The argument for Bourn is simple. Those that are advocating signing him are making a case that he has more potential value to this team than the 11th draft pick because he is exactly the kind of player this team is desperately lacking. He would improve the team now, and would be a key contributor over the next 3-4 years in total - overlapping a period that we all hope will have the Mets as serious contenders. Signing him would lessen the burden of having to add to the major league roster in the years going forward. In addition, the market seems to be making him a favorable player for the Mets to pursue and sign.

    My interpretation of ASAP is start improving the team ASAP. There's nothing wrong with that thinking considering the Mets have accumulated some legitimate young talent on the cusp of making an impact.
    I can agree with that but to assume the Mets won't be in play for similar FA next year is to assume they aren't really in it for Michael Bourn this year.

    What's the major barrier here besides the pick?

    If it's still money, then it's really irrelevant who is a FA and when.

    Michael Bourn is a very good player but he's not unmatched in his abilities neither he is something the Mets couldn't acquire otherwise if they didn't acquire him.

    All my point is if Bourn doesn't sign for less than 5 years, i would rather keep the #11 pick (possibly get a protected pick next year) and then sign major FA next offseason when this team is closer is competing with the internal parts they have (and have more parts to deal)
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-28-2013 at 12:04 PM.

  10. #295
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    Jim Callis analyzes the issue of protecting the Mets pick

    The 2007-11 CBA specifically addressed the fact that compensation picks were not to be counted toward the total number of choices (at that point, 15 rather than the current 10) which were protected from free-agent compensation.

    Here's the pertinent passage from Article XX, Section B (4) (d):
    The Regular Draft Choice of the signing Club described in subparagraph (c) above shall not include any selection in the Rule 4 Draft awarded as compensation for failure to sign a Rule 4 Draft selection from the preceding year and shall be assigned as follows. If the signing Club is among the first half of selecting Clubs, excluding selection(s) awarded as compensation for failing to sign a Rule 4 selection from the preceding year, then the choice to be assigned for the highest ranking free agent Player signed by such Club shall be its second choice . . .
    The boldface there is mine, to emphasize the specific exclusion of compensation picks when determining which other choices weren't subject to free-agent compensation. Compare that to the parallel passage from the 2012-16 CBA, which is Article XX, Section B (4) (c) (i):

    A Club that signs one Qualified Free Agent who is subject to compensation shall forfeit its highest available selection in the next Rule 4 Draft. A Club that signs more than one Qualified Free Agent subject to compensation shall forfeit its highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft for each additional Qualified Free Agent it signs. Notwithstanding the above, a Club shall not be required to forfeit a selection in the top ten of the first round of the Rule 4 Draft, and its highest available selection shall be deemed its first selection following the tenth selection of the first round.
    Note that no choices, compensation or otherwise, are excluded from the group of 10 protected from free-agent compensation. That language has been removed. Furthermore, the language is pretty clear: a club's "highest available selection shall be deemed its first selection following the tenth selection of the first round."

    Now I won't blame the Mets and GM Sandy Alderson for appealing to MLB that they should hold onto the No. 11 overall pick if they do sign Bourn (which I still think is a longshot). They'd simply be trying to seek a competitive edge. And I'm not surprised that the MLB Player Association would support the club, because a favorable decision would enhance Bourn's value.

    But the owners and players agreed to the new CBA, which clearly removed the language that wouldn't have included Pittsburgh's Appel choice in the total number of selections exempt from compensation. The rule was changed for a reason, and to alter it the first time it's inconvenient for a team would be silly.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  11. #296
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    Well we'll see what happens with Bourn..

    I seriously don't see us signing him unless somehow

    A) They get that pick protected..

    Or

    B) He signs for less than 5 years.

    I think the Mets are just trying it on. It's a way of dragging the off-season out to make it look like real activity. They were never getting Upton either.

    I would not give him 5 guaranteed years either.

  12. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    I can agree with that but to assume the Mets won't be in play for similar FA next year is to assume they aren't really in it for Michael Bourn this year.

    What's the major barrier here besides the pick?

    If it's still money, then it's really irrelevant who is a FA and when.

    Michael Bourn is a very good player but he's not unmatched in his abilities neither he is something the Mets couldn't acquire otherwise if they didn't acquire him.

    All my point is if Bourn doesn't sign for less than 5 years, i would rather keep the #11 pick (possibly get a protected pick next year) and then sign major FA next offseason when this team is closer is competing with the internal parts they have (and have more parts to deal)
    One of the major barriers is his agent.....did you forget who he is....BORAS!!!! That guy thinks all his clients are the best in the game and wants ridiculous $$$ for them.

    The deal with the pick is kind of wacky. ORIGINALLY the Mets were picking 10th, but I read in todays NY POST that Pirates moved to 10...bumping Mets to 11....because they declined to sign one of their own FA's or something. The wacky part is top 10 picks are usually protected when you sign a FA so the Mets are trying to get the 11th pick protected because it was REALLy 10th originally.
    Last edited by stoopboy45; 01-28-2013 at 01:31 PM.


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  13. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoopboy45 View Post
    One of the major barriers is his agent.....did you forget who he is....BORIS!!!! That guy thinks all his clients are the best in the game and wants ridiculous $$$ for them.

    The deal with the pick is kind of wacky. ORIGINALLY the Mets were picking 10th, but I read in todays NY POST that Pirates moved to 10...bumping Mets to 11....because they declined to sign one of their own FA's or something. The wacky part is top 10 picks are usually protected when you sign a FA so the Mets are trying to get the 11th pick protected because it was REALLy 10th originally.
    I know the reasons why the pick is not protected and i know Boras is a major hurdle because he wants the most money for his client all the time but my point is if they are in play for Bourn this year they should in play for whatever FA comes available next year.

    Unless people are of the mentality that they are completely broke then it doesn't matter who is FA and when they become one.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-28-2013 at 01:29 PM.

  14. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoopboy45 View Post
    One of the major barriers is his agent.....did you forget who he is....BORIS!!!!
    Wait. I thought it was Borat?
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  15. #300
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    I know the reasons why the pick is not protected and i know Boras is a major hurdle because he wants the most money for his client all the time but my point is if they are in play for Bourn this year they should in play for whatever FA comes available next year.

    Unless people are of the mentality that they are completely broke then it doesn't matter who is FA and when they become one.
    I agree 100%.......unless they are just blowing smoke up our *** to make it look like they are trying to get him and in reality are not!!!! Wouldn't be the 1st time they did this to the fans.....go after a guy they know they won't get to try and make themselves look good.


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