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  1. #1
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    Matt Harvey and The Verducci Effect

    Code:
    Pitchers At Risk in 2013
    Pitcher, Team	               Age	2012 Innings Pitched	Increase*
    Chris Sale, White Sox	        23	192	                 +121
    Jarrod Parker, A's	        23	214/ 2/3	         +78
    Jose Quintana, White Sox	23	185	                 +63
    Joe Kelly, Cardinals	        24	187	                 +55
    Stephen Strasburg, Nationals	23	159 1/3	                 +36
    Chris Rusin, Cubs	        25	173	                 +34 1/3
    Matt Harvey, Mets	        23	169 1/3	                 +33 2/3
    Alex Cobb, Rays	                24	177 2/3	                 +33
    Felix Doubront, Red Sox	        24	161	                 +31 2/3
    Dan Straily, A's	        23	191 1/3	                 +30 2/3
    Andrew Werner, Padres	        25	166 2/3	                 +30 1/3
    *From previous professional high
    Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...#ixzz2IrAEVPUx

  2. #2
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  3. #3
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    Is Chris Sale at risk?


  4. #4
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    Verducci can **** himself.

  5. #5
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    The Mets have done the right thing in his development increasing his innings incrementally.

    I know Strasburg got hurt 2 years ago but knock on wood Harvey should be ok aside from him showing some possible fatigue towards the end of the season.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-24-2013 at 05:27 AM.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by nymetsrule View Post
    Verducci can **** himself.
    Part of the corner everyone is now painted into is that if any of these pitchers develop an arm injury, someone will point to the Verducci effect as the basis when the statistical norm might be that 1 in 5 pitchers spends time on the DL anyway...but I think there is merit in a philosophy that teams shouldn't add massive number of innings to a pitcher year to year.
    Last edited by Dugmet; 01-24-2013 at 06:44 AM.

  7. #7
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    The Verducci effect is very flawed, and here is why:

    If Matt Harvey averages about 16.6 pitches per inning and Felix Doubront averages about 18 pitches per inning, then after their respective 2012 campaigns Harvey has thrown about 2810 pitches and Doubront 2898 pitches, even though Harvey threw more innings.

    There will be some correlation because you usually have to throw some pitches to get through an inning. But, my example shows that if Harvey had Doubront's pitches to innings ratio, he would have about an additional 6 innings, throwing the same number of pitches as Doubront.

    That's why they count pitches, not innings. Someone should do a real study to see what the correlation is between pitch count increase, and injury.
    Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw.
    Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain?
    Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they?
    Dorothy: Yes, I guess you're right.

  8. #8
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    I'm not convinced there's all that much you can do, apart from using common sense. Sadly the hand-wringers and worriers have won out over the old school thinkers, where kids were not babied, and guys like Seaver et al threw a million innings and were fine.

    My plan would be to continue doing everything to stockpile high upside power throwing arms, I can't see any other practical plan, let's be honest here, let's say Harvey, Wheeler and Noah all become top of the rotation type arms, at least one will probably miss significant time to TJ or something similar. Meija has already had TJ(?), and he's hardly seen NY.

    It's just how it is. It makes you weep, but it is going to happen to someone sooner or later.

  9. #9
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    Deposdesta on Harvey's innings limit last year and Verducci's claim..

    We are acutely aware of each and every pitcher’s workload throughout the season and, in fact, maintain multi-year plans to get younger players ready for a Major League workload in a reasonable and gradual fashion. While there are some general rules of thumb, we look at each pitcher on an individualized basis. As far as Matt Harvey is concerned, his workload did increase by 34 innings in 2012 over 2011. However, some of that increase was due to an increased efficiency of his work. In fact, he made just four more starts in 2012 than he did in 2011, so on average he was working deeper into games in 2012, though he maintained similar pitch counts. Fortunately, we had this happen in a number of instances in 2012. Furthermore, as the year stretched on, and Matt approached and surpassed his 2011 totals, both in starts and innings, we adjusted his recovery time to provide him extra rest. There’s always a careful balance between stressing players so that they grow (like weight lifting) and protecting them from doing too much. We simply try to be responsible and methodical in the way we go about it.”
    http://metsblog.com/metsblog/depodes...-after-effect/

  10. #10
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    Isn't that kinda what I said?
    Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw.
    Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain?
    Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they?
    Dorothy: Yes, I guess you're right.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by eltwo View Post
    Isn't that kinda what I said?
    Yeah, you're spot on.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by eltwo View Post
    The Verducci effect is very flawed, and here is why:

    If Matt Harvey averages about 16.6 pitches per inning and Felix Doubront averages about 18 pitches per inning, then after their respective 2012 campaigns Harvey has thrown about 2810 pitches and Doubront 2898 pitches, even though Harvey threw more innings.

    There will be some correlation because you usually have to throw some pitches to get through an inning. But, my example shows that if Harvey had Doubront's pitches to innings ratio, he would have about an additional 6 innings, throwing the same number of pitches as Doubront.

    That's why they count pitches, not innings. Someone should do a real study to see what the correlation is between pitch count increase, and injury.
    You mean someone hasn't come up with a Pitch Count XFIP yet????

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by jomota View Post
    You mean someone hasn't come up with a Pitch Count XFIP yet????
    You just did!
    Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw.
    Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain?
    Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they?
    Dorothy: Yes, I guess you're right.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by eltwo View Post
    The Verducci effect is very flawed, and here is why:

    If Matt Harvey averages about 16.6 pitches per inning and Felix Doubront averages about 18 pitches per inning, then after their respective 2012 campaigns Harvey has thrown about 2810 pitches and Doubront 2898 pitches, even though Harvey threw more innings.

    There will be some correlation because you usually have to throw some pitches to get through an inning. But, my example shows that if Harvey had Doubront's pitches to innings ratio, he would have about an additional 6 innings, throwing the same number of pitches as Doubront.

    That's why they count pitches, not innings. Someone should do a real study to see what the correlation is between pitch count increase, and injury.
    From what I've seen (as far as studies go), pitch count/innings thrown is a very real issue for young players.

  15. #15
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    innings ≠ pitch count
    Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw.
    Dorothy: How can you talk if you haven't got a brain?
    Scarecrow: I don't know... But some people without brains do an awful lot of talking... don't they?
    Dorothy: Yes, I guess you're right.

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