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  1. #481
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    I'll respond to these silly posts now. Not going to quote any since there were so many.


    Heyward had a career year last year. In 2011, he was awful! He needs to show consistency before he suddenly becomes better than Granderson. No way do I just go off of his most recent year. If we go off of last year than Heyward is their best outfielder. If you think

    BJ Upton He's a decent player but always inconsistent. Another guy with a career year last year so he was able to boost his value (to some fans and GM's apparently. He's not better than Granderson, not even in his league. BJ and Ichiro are similar players at this point. Ichiro playing in Yankees stadium helps a lot. He always hit to what ballpark he was in and that's what he got a lot of groundball singles. I'd say even him and Heyward are similar and Ichiro is still as good a defensive OF as any of them.

    Justin Upton is another player that thinks baseball is just a hobby that he gets paid millions of dollars to do. His last year wasn't great. At his best, he is better than the Yankees OF, but at his worst he's not as good as Granderson.

    I'd rather have the Yankees OF personally, I don't like the Uptons at all. Heyward will need to stay healthy and remain consistent. It is close though. People are overvaluing BJ off of his last year and same with Heyward and J Upton. People are expecting a lot...

  2. #482
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    I'll respond to these silly posts now. Not going to quote any since there were so many.


    Heyward had a career year last year. In 2011, he was awful! He needs to show consistency before he suddenly becomes better than Granderson. No way do I just go off of his most recent year. If we go off of last year than Heyward is their best outfielder. If you think

    BJ Upton He's a decent player but always inconsistent. Another guy with a career year last year so he was able to boost his value (to some fans and GM's apparently. He's not better than Granderson, not even in his league. BJ and Ichiro are similar players at this point. Ichiro playing in Yankees stadium helps a lot. He always hit to what ballpark he was in and that's what he got a lot of groundball singles. I'd say even him and Heyward are similar and Ichiro is still as good a defensive OF as any of them.

    Justin Upton is another player that thinks baseball is just a hobby that he gets paid millions of dollars to do. His last year wasn't great. At his best, he is better than the Yankees OF, but at his worst he's not as good as Granderson.

    I'd rather have the Yankees OF personally, I don't like the Uptons at all. Heyward will need to stay healthy and remain consistent. It is close though. People are overvaluing BJ off of his last year and same with Heyward and J Upton. People are expecting a lot...
    I am guessing you don't put much stock in advanced stats with those assessments because the objective information proves otherwise about who is the better OF.
    Last edited by metswon69; 02-01-2013 at 02:18 PM.

  3. #483
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    No, I don't pay attention much to advanced statistics or "shoulda, coulda, wouldas". Those same advanced statistics say a lot of bogus things. I'm a huge fan of the game, I watch all the games, I watch all the highlights. I know the guys stats and how they play the game.

    I'm talking overall outfield too, not just defensive OF.

  4. #484
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twitchy View Post
    Mike Holt also put up pretty impressive offensive numbers. So there's a small difference. Ahmed wasn't really that impressive.

    I didn't focus on home runs, I focused on ISO. And I never ignored the walk rate. I just said I wasn't impressed by the overall numbers, and that I was worried about the lack of contact and how that would translate.

    Why would I see the guy? He's a minor leaguer that plays for an NL team. I'm not a trained scout, so even if I saw the guy it wouldn't make much of a difference. And unless you're a trained scout, I wouldn't value your opinion from what you saw (no offence intended, as that's how I feel about everybody who isn't a trained evaluator). I don't claim to be an expert on prospects, but I do a combination of stats and scouting reports of respected evaluators. More often then not I'm right.

    And I never said he was a #1/ace upside. You're making a lot of assumptions.

    There's a difference between average and effective. Delgado was average to slightly below average. I don't buy that argument, as I don't think the D-Backs had as much leverage as you're suggesting they did. I wasn't that impressed with Towers offseason, so him having the choice of pitchers wouldn't inspire me in the least.
    Bah I missed this and there's some **** I do want to look at:

    - Mike Olt also put up unimpressive numbers like 101 K's in less than 450 PAs (as a 23 going on 24 year old in AA) and only 17 doubles. He also played in a better hitter's league in a better hitter's park. He also doesn't play SS, one of the three hardest positions to field at the major league level. For all your fetish for contact, somehow Olt's impressive with a 24% K rate (the lowest of his minor league career) while Ahmed is trouble a-brewin with an 18% K rate.

    - ISO is one stat. Leading your league in doubles is nothing to scoff at. The kind of doubles power indicates to promise for both better average and HR power moving forward. If he's a guy who can play SS, work the gaps for 25 2Bs or so, and give you 10 HRs - not an insane projection if he can carry even that same batting line to AA - then you're talking a very valuable player for the league min by mid-2014 or 2015. There probably aren't even 15 SSs who could put up a .720 OPS in the majors so if he has a shot at doing that...

    - Trained scouts are guys who have watched baseball alot with a real understanding of what is going on on the field. It's not a science. No one goes to school to become a scout, and any training for it would involve watching games in a critical fashion after driving 15 hours to see one player. You're probably not trained extensively in mathematics or statistics either but you ran with a 2012 curveball rating to go with zero visual evidence as proof he doesn't have a curveball. Somehow that makes sense.

    - There's nothing wrong about being a league average pitcher with solid periphs across the board at 22.

  5. #485
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    No, I don't pay attention much to advanced statistics or "shoulda, coulda, wouldas". Those same advanced statistics say a lot of bogus things. I'm a huge fan of the game, I watch all the games, I watch all the highlights. I know the guys stats and how they play the game.

    I'm talking overall outfield too, not just defensive OF.
    Then it's probably not worth arguing because your eye test doesn't hold up to what the objective information is telling everyone else.

    The Yankee OF is not better than the Braves OF.

  6. #486
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    I'll respond to these silly posts now. Not going to quote any since there were so many.


    Heyward had a career year last year. In 2011, he was awful! He needs to show consistency before he suddenly becomes better than Granderson. No way do I just go off of his most recent year. If we go off of last year than Heyward is their best outfielder. If you think

    BJ Upton He's a decent player but always inconsistent. Another guy with a career year last year so he was able to boost his value (to some fans and GM's apparently. He's not better than Granderson, not even in his league. BJ and Ichiro are similar players at this point. Ichiro playing in Yankees stadium helps a lot. He always hit to what ballpark he was in and that's what he got a lot of groundball singles. I'd say even him and Heyward are similar and Ichiro is still as good a defensive OF as any of them.

    Justin Upton is another player that thinks baseball is just a hobby that he gets paid millions of dollars to do. His last year wasn't great. At his best, he is better than the Yankees OF, but at his worst he's not as good as Granderson.

    I'd rather have the Yankees OF personally, I don't like the Uptons at all. Heyward will need to stay healthy and remain consistent. It is close though. People are overvaluing BJ off of his last year and same with Heyward and J Upton. People are expecting a lot...
    1. Career year at the age of 22??? Hahah.
    2. Last year was far from BJ's best year, so it did NOTHING to boost his value.
    3. Granderson can hit HR and thats about it. The guy was considered a platoon player for several years due to his inability to hit lefties.
    4. Justin Upton at his worst is still better then every one of the Yankees OF.
    5. Your opinion comes from ESPN run highlights. Enough said.
    BRING BACK CHICUBS!!!

  7. #487
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Bah I missed this and there's some **** I do want to look at:

    - Mike Olt also put up unimpressive numbers like 101 K's in less than 450 PAs (as a 23 going on 24 year old in AA) and only 17 doubles.
    As you pointed out, Olt had a 24% K rate. However he backed that up with a 238 ISO in A+ (2011) and a 291 ISO in AA. Compare that with an 18% K rate for Ahmed who had a 123 ISO in A+. It's not the end of the world if a player has a higher strikeout if they make up for it with a high walk rate or shows a lot of power like Olt did. It's not a good sign when a player strikes out close to 20% of the time without showing much power like Ahmed did.

    While both players hit in the upper 260's in A+, Olt had 100 points of ISO on him, and nearly twice as high a walk rate (16.4% vs 8.6). Olt's line gave him a 153 wRC+ in A+, while Ahmed was a 104.

    So as you can see, there is a significant difference in production. Olt did have a higher K rate, but he was significantly more productive. No amount of defence could make up the gap between a 153 wRC+ and a 104 wRC+.

    Olt continued to improve in AA, pushing that up to a 168 wRC+, with a 291 ISO and a 288 BA. So despite the contact issues, he was showing strong pitch recognition (14.5% BB), tremendous power (291 ISO) and the ability to make contact and hit for average (288).

    He also played in a better hitter's league in a better hitter's park.
    That's accounted for in the wRC+.

    He also doesn't play SS, one of the three hardest positions to field at the major league level. For all your fetish for contact, somehow Olt's impressive with a 24% K rate (the lowest of his minor league career) while Ahmed is trouble a-brewin with an 18% K rate.
    I've already explained the contact issues so I won't continue with that. As for the SS comment, yes, it's not an easy position to fill. But that doesn't change the fact that Olt's bat is far and away better than Ahmed's to the point where he demolishes any positional or fielding advantage that Ahmed would have had by virtue of playing SS.

    - ISO is one stat. Leading your league in doubles is nothing to scoff at. The kind of doubles power indicates to promise for both better average and HR power moving forward. If he's a guy who can play SS, work the gaps for 25 2Bs or so, and give you 10 HRs - not an insane projection if he can carry even that same batting line to AA - then you're talking a very valuable player for the league min by mid-2014 or 2015. There probably aren't even 15 SSs who could put up a .720 OPS in the majors so if he has a shot at doing that...
    I never said leading the league in doubles isn't impressive. A 720 OPS SS would fall in the middle of the pack in terms of SS's. While that has some value, it's not really different from what I said before. It's not a great return in a trade.

    -
    Trained scouts are guys who have watched baseball alot with a real understanding of what is going on on the field. It's not a science. No one goes to school to become a scout,
    Actually, you can go to school for being a scout. Or you can learn by spending time with other scouts and picking apart how they determine what makes a player valuable.

    and any training for it would involve watching games in a critical fashion after driving 15 hours to see one player. You're probably not trained extensively in mathematics or statistics either but you ran with a 2012 curveball rating to go with zero visual evidence as proof he doesn't have a curveball. Somehow that makes sense.
    That comment brought a smile to my face. It's like when someone goes "But Derek Jeter is a great defender because I saw him! I don't care what your numbers say!". The bottom line is, yes, I can read the numbers, and use critical thinking to see how they apply in a situation.

    You argued that you saw Delgado pitch a few times and that he had a good curveball. That's great. But did you see every start from Delgado this year? If not, you're basing your arguments on a small sample size as well. He may have had the curve working when you saw him, but unless you watched every start of his then you wouldn't be able to accurately tell me if he threw a good curve this year.

    The bottom line is according to the numbers his curve wasn't that great this year. It doesn't mean he has a lousy curve, it just means he didn't have a lot of success with it this year. You can have a good curveball and be ineffective with it. Doesn't mean he won't show off a better curve next season, one that is consistently better. Just means that he didn't have it this year.

    - There's nothing wrong about being a league average pitcher with solid periphs across the board at 22.
    Nobody said there was anything wrong with it.
    Last edited by Twitchy; 02-01-2013 at 02:53 PM.


    Vic Mackey: You better figure out how much you hate me. And how you're going to deal with that. 'Cause I'm not going anywhere.

    This sums up every sports interview, ever.

  8. #488
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    I'll respond to these silly posts now. Not going to quote any since there were so many.


    Heyward had a career year last year. In 2011, he was awful! He needs to show consistency before he suddenly becomes better than Granderson. No way do I just go off of his most recent year. If we go off of last year than Heyward is their best outfielder. If you think

    BJ Upton He's a decent player but always inconsistent. Another guy with a career year last year so he was able to boost his value (to some fans and GM's apparently. He's not better than Granderson, not even in his league. BJ and Ichiro are similar players at this point. Ichiro playing in Yankees stadium helps a lot. He always hit to what ballpark he was in and that's what he got a lot of groundball singles. I'd say even him and Heyward are similar and Ichiro is still as good a defensive OF as any of them.

    Justin Upton is another player that thinks baseball is just a hobby that he gets paid millions of dollars to do. His last year wasn't great. At his best, he is better than the Yankees OF, but at his worst he's not as good as Granderson.

    I'd rather have the Yankees OF personally, I don't like the Uptons at all. Heyward will need to stay healthy and remain consistent. It is close though. People are overvaluing BJ off of his last year and same with Heyward and J Upton. People are expecting a lot...
    At first i didn't want to answer you because o thought you were trolling, but then i thought maybe he knows something so let me take a deep look, so let's see what i found.

    ATL LF (Justin Upton) vs NYY LF (Brett Gardner):
    J.Upton: .358 wOBA 119 wRC+ 3.1 WAR
    B.Gardner: .331 wOBA 100 wRC+ 4.3 WAR

    Justin Upton is by far the better hitter while Gardner is by far the better defender and he is a better baserunner. Justin Upton is 25 years old while Gardner is 30 years old. For the last 3 years surprisingly Gardner has been the most productive player, if he can get back to form in 2013 those players could be close when it comes to value, for the foreseeable future J. Upton takes the edge because of age. Since 2013 is close and for the next 3 years J.Upton is a better bet the best LF between those two is Upton.

    ATL CF (BJ Upton) vs NYY CF (Curtis Granderson):
    BJ.Upton: .328 wOBA 109 wRC+ 2.1 WAR
    C.Granderson: .361 wOBA 124 wRC+ 2.1 WAR

    This time Granderson has been a much better hitter while Upton has been better defensive and on the basepaths, Granderson soon will be 32 while Upton is 28. Both those player has been similar in terms of value so i expect more of the same in 2013, but again because of age i take the Braves CF as a winner.

    ATL RF (Jason Heyward) vs NYY RF(Ichiro Suzuki):
    J.Heyward: .347 wOBA 116 wRC+ 4.7 WAR
    I.Suzuki: .304 wOBA 93 wRC+ 0.6 WAR

    This one is quite easy because these players aren't close, Heyward has been better in every category and he is only 23 while Ichiro is 39. No contest here, Braves by a landslide.

    So for the 2013 even if there are no progression from the Braves OF (all of them before or entering their prime)they're still have a better OF than the NYY.

  9. #489
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    Quote Originally Posted by dirtyjay View Post
    braves are going to be fun to watch next season
    You Kan Kount on that.

  10. #490
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    I'll respond to these silly posts now. Not going to quote any since there were so many.


    Heyward had a career year last year. In 2011, he was awful! He needs to show consistency before he suddenly becomes better than Granderson. No way do I just go off of his most recent year. If we go off of last year than Heyward is their best outfielder. If you think

    BJ Upton He's a decent player but always inconsistent. Another guy with a career year last year so he was able to boost his value (to some fans and GM's apparently. He's not better than Granderson, not even in his league. BJ and Ichiro are similar players at this point. Ichiro playing in Yankees stadium helps a lot. He always hit to what ballpark he was in and that's what he got a lot of groundball singles. I'd say even him and Heyward are similar and Ichiro is still as good a defensive OF as any of them.

    Justin Upton is another player that thinks baseball is just a hobby that he gets paid millions of dollars to do. His last year wasn't great. At his best, he is better than the Yankees OF, but at his worst he's not as good as Granderson.

    I'd rather have the Yankees OF personally, I don't like the Uptons at all. Heyward will need to stay healthy and remain consistent. It is close though. People are overvaluing BJ off of his last year and same with Heyward and J Upton. People are expecting a lot...
    Ichiro was a 1.6 WAR player last year, and at his age I think its optimistic to pen him as a 3 WAR guy. But hey, lets do it anyway. Granderson was a 2.7 WAR last year, but he was down defensively and in his steals. I think a 4 WAR projection is fair, if not optimistic (he's only had two seasons in his career above 4.1 WAR). Brett Gardner plays very good defense in left and runs the bases exceptionally well. WAR is generally kind to guys like that. He was hurt all of last year, so that will have an impact but its not unreasonable to see a 4 WAR year from this guy, two seasons removed from when he had an OBP of .383 and stole 47 bases. Taking an optimistic approach, thats an outfield that will add 11 wins to the Yankees season. Thats very good.

    The Braves feature BJ Upton, whos been a 3 WAR guy the past two years. I think he gets better in a change of environment and playing with his brother, but we will stick to what he's been doing. Justin Upton is a five tool player entering his prime at 25. He played in a terrible hitters park around a terrible lineup. His production will inevitably increase. I think giving him 6 WAR like his 2011 year might be a stretch (he has the talent however, he could easily be a 7-8 guy), but I think we all agree he's better than the 3 he posted last year. Lets be fair and average it out to 4.5 WAR. Heyward is a superstar in the making. In his two relatively healthy seasons he put up WARs in the 6 range. He will take a step forward this year because his lineup is better and he's learning the game. However, I'll take a conservative approach and say he simply repeats a 6 WAR season.

    Yankees OF: 11 WAR
    Braves OF: 13.5 WAR

    And I don't think it will even be that close.

  11. #491
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    I'll respond to these silly posts now. Not going to quote any since there were so many.


    Heyward had a career year last year. In 2011, he was awful! He needs to show consistency before he suddenly becomes better than Granderson. No way do I just go off of his most recent year. If we go off of last year than Heyward is their best outfielder. If you think
    So what was 2010, his rookie year?

    Non-existent.

    Hell let's take the last three years.

    Heyward is the best outfielder of the six (Gardner, Ichiro, Granderson, and both Upton's).

    His rookie year was one of the 10 best of all time for someone his age.


    BJ Upton He's a decent player but always inconsistent. Another guy with a career year last year so he was able to boost his value (to some fans and GM's apparently. He's not better than Granderson, not even in his league. BJ and Ichiro are similar players at this point. Ichiro playing in Yankees stadium helps a lot. He always hit to what ballpark he was in and that's what he got a lot of groundball singles. I'd say even him and Heyward are similar and Ichiro is still as good a defensive OF as any of them.
    The hell do you think Curtis Granderson is?

    A very inconsistent power hitter who lack the ability to get on base and strikes out a lot.

    They compare very well actually. Just Granderson has had a short porch in right that he has clearly abused.

    http://www.hittrackeronline.com/deta...51&type=hitter

    Justin Upton is another player that thinks baseball is just a hobby that he gets paid millions of dollars to do. His last year wasn't great. At his best, he is better than the Yankees OF, but at his worst he's not as good as Granderson.
    Pretty difficult to combat an assertion about the best players when the arguments starts with what you think a player thinks.
    I'd rather have the Yankees OF personally, I don't like the Uptons at all. Heyward will need to stay healthy and remain consistent. It is close though. People are overvaluing BJ off of his last year and same with Heyward and J Upton. People are expecting a lot...
    I'd rather have the Angels outfield than both of them, and I'd rather have the Cardinals outfield than the Yankees as well. And I'd rather have the Braves outfield than the Yankees.

    I see a ton of holes in the Yankees outfield...a ton. Ichiro is old and a shell of his former self and the only value he brings is defensive. Granderson is the worst hitter to ever hit 40 home runs in a single season.......ever....and is bad defensively in center with no on base ability. Gardner, while a neat player. His value is defensive and he has had some injury issues.

    Where is the depth?

  12. #492
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    No, I don't pay attention much to advanced statistics or "shoulda, coulda, wouldas". Those same advanced statistics say a lot of bogus things. I'm a huge fan of the game, I watch all the games, I watch all the highlights. I know the guys stats and how they play the game.

    I'm talking overall outfield too, not just defensive OF.
    The only shot the Yankees outfield has to be as good as the Braves in something would be defensive.

    Overall? Not even close.

    But I'm glad you watch 'all of the games' that means you know everything you are talking about, and can fairly and accurately judge the Braves new outfield completely and with no bias.

  13. #493
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    As you pointed out, Olt had a 24% K rate. However he backed that up with a 238 ISO in A+ (2011) and a 291 ISO in AA. Compare that with an 18% K rate for Ahmed who had a 123 ISO in A+. It's not the end of the world if a player has a higher strikeout if they make up for it with a high walk rate or shows a lot of power like Olt did. It's not a good sign when a player strikes out close to 20% of the time without showing much power like Ahmed did.
    This is true at the ML level, a little to alot less in the minors without a lot more context.

    So as you can see, there is a significant difference in production.

    As for the SS comment, yes, it's not an easy position to fill. But that doesn't change the fact that Olt's bat is far and away better than Ahmed's to the point where he demolishes any positional or fielding advantage that Ahmed would have had by virtue of playing SS.
    Yes, as there should be between a SS and a 3B offensively. This isn't about Olt's offense vs. Ahmed's. Olt clearly has done more with the bat in the minors. The point is that is a very solid prospect exists despite being a year too old for his league with significant statistical flaws in his offensive profile that do not bode well for his ability to hit major league pitching in the future.

    It's like when someone goes "But Derek Jeter is a great defender because I saw him! I don't care what your numbers say!". The bottom line is, yes, I can read the numbers, and use critical thinking to see how they apply in a situation.
    There are years of numbers saying Derek Jeter is not a great defender. What I'm saying is nothing like that. "FanGraphs curveball rating number for 2012 said he doesn't have a good curveball, therefore #science" doesn't sound like critical thinking about the numbers.

    You argued that you saw Delgado pitch a few times and that he had a good curveball. That's great. But did you see every start from Delgado this year? If not, you're basing your arguments on a small sample size as well. He may have had the curve working when you saw him, but unless you watched every start of his then you wouldn't be able to accurately tell me if he threw a good curve this year.
    The scouting reports say he has a potentially plus but inconsistent curveball.

    The same number you cite from 2012 says he had a good curveball during his major league callup in 2011.

    I have actually seen his curveball on both good days where it's a mid-velocity 12-6 curve he can throw for strikes and whiffs and bad days where it rolls up or flattens out early. There's plenty to work with.

    You have a number you read off of FanGraphs. Why should that be even considered convincing? It's not a polished curveball, but the pitch at it's best is a legitimate ML pitch and he has shown it.

    The bottom line is according to the numbers his curve wasn't that great this year. It doesn't mean he has a lousy curve, it just means he didn't have a lot of success with it this year. You can have a good curveball and be ineffective with it. Doesn't mean he won't show off a better curve next season, one that is consistently better. Just means that he didn't have it this year.
    This bottom line is closer to the truth than what you initially said about the curveball. With a consistently better curveball you're now talking a 92-96 starter with two plus offspeed pitches and possibly growing groundball tendencies as well. Oh woe his upside!

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    Let's see when it's all said and done at the end of 2013. We'll see what OF has the better #'s and what team makes the playoffs. My moneys on the Yankees.

  15. #495
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
    Let's see when it's all said and done at the end of 2013. We'll see what OF has the better #'s and what team makes the playoffs. My moneys on the Yankees.
    What does it matter who makes the playoffs?

    The Braves OF is still better and they are still the front runners for at least the WC in the NL at the very least.

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