Justin Upton traded to Braves for Martin Prado, Randall Delgado, +specs

[Twitchy]

Mike Olt was older in AA last year and it's done nothing to hurt his stock. There aren't 30 short stops in the league, and a guy with defensive skills who's shown some ability to hit the ball into the gaps and take some walks will get a ton of interest.

Mike Holt also put up pretty impressive offensive numbers. So there's a small difference. Ahmed wasn't really that impressive.

Not only can the bat play up in Arizona, but there's secondary skills there. You're really focused on the HR power and ignoring that 36 doubles is and an 8.5% walk rate is strong at any level of baseball. He's a defensive SS with secondary skills offensively - that is a rare thing pretty much all the time.

I didn't focus on home runs, I focused on ISO. And I never ignored the walk rate. I just said I wasn't impressed by the overall numbers, and that I was worried about the lack of contact and how that would translate.

Oh god dammit. Nothing against you, just what you did. FanGraphs scouting is the worst, and it's entirely too common.

The curveball being gone is real, but the groundballs aren't (they came with a significant increase in two seam fastballs).

He's not considered an elite prospect. There is most to prospectdom than elite prospect with #1 upside/potential. He's been a very well thought of prospect for a while now, top 50 twice with BA from his BBref page, and come on....You haven't even seen the guy?

Why would I see the guy? He's a minor leaguer that plays for an NL team. I'm not a trained scout, so even if I saw the guy it wouldn't make much of a difference. And unless you're a trained scout, I wouldn't value your opinion from what you saw (no offence intended, as that's how I feel about everybody who isn't a trained evaluator). I don't claim to be an expert on prospects, but I do a combination of stats and scouting reports of respected evaluators. More often then not I'm right.

And I never said he was a #1/ace upside. You're making a lot of assumptions.

Another thing is that it's hard to buy that the D'Backs did not have their choice of Teheran/Delgado when they're giving up a 25 year old AS with 30 HR power. They went with the guy who threw effective major league innings at a still very young age with some very promising stuff over the guy who struggled mightily in AAA after coming into the year higher up on mostly arbitrarily compiled lists.

There's a difference between average and effective. Delgado was average to slightly below average. I don't buy that argument, as I don't think the D-Backs had as much leverage as you're suggesting they did. I wasn't that impressed with Towers offseason, so him having the choice of pitchers wouldn't inspire me in the least.

[flea]

You spend enough time following prospects and you would be stunned how many "potential #1s" are out there.

Here's a 2012 scouting report from one of the better individual scouting report websites out there:

http://baseballprospectnation.com/20...o-teheran-rhp/

It opens with:



The guy has always been fairly hittable for a supposed future #1, and he's only once put up the kind of K rates a future #1 kinda prospect puts up.

I can easily name 10 more valuable minor leagues btw:

Taveras
Profar
Myers
Baez
Bogaerts
D'Arnaud
Zunino
Bundy
Fernandez
Cole
Walker
Skaggs

Got to 12 before I even had to think about it, and could probably keep going:

Hamilton
Sano
Lindor
Yelich
Taillon
Bauer
Wheeler
Bradley

There's no way Zunino, D'Arnaud, Cole, Walker, Bauer, Taillon, Wheeler, Bradley and a host of those others are more valuable. Teheran is basically those pitchers 2 years ago. Dylan Bundy is the only low level pitching prospect that's definitely worth more. I know you're basing this on BA's top 100 or whatever, but that doesn't do the real picture justice. Those lists are made to sell magazines, and therefore they want new prospects to be excited about. Talk to any GM and they'll take a ML ready potential ace before any low level prospect. Guys like Taveras and Profar are worth more because of how advanced they are along with their ceilings.

[AmericanDream]

Justin Upton is horrible. If Chipper Jones ends up managing there then he won't get along with him one bit. Kirk Gibson couldn't stand that clown.

I like Arizona making a big trade. Prado and Delgado can do much more for Arizona. Arizona has a buttload of pitching now. That's how you need to dominate in the NL West especially. Now they have both the Upton bros. I don't know if that's really a good thing when both guys are already considered to be slackers or have that "smooth style" that people don't like.

[SenorGato]

There's no way Zunino, D'Arnaud, Cole, Walker, Bauer, Taillon, Wheeler, Bradley and a host of those others are more valuable. Teheran is basically those pitchers 2 years ago. Dylan Bundy is the only low level pitching prospect that's definitely worth more. I know you're basing this on BA's top 100 or whatever, but that doesn't do the real picture justice. Those lists are made to sell magazines, and therefore they want new prospects to be excited about. Talk to any GM and they'll take a ML ready potential ace before any low level prospect. Guys like Taveras and Profar are worth more because of how advanced they are along with their ceilings.

There's plenty of way those guys carry more value and trade value right now. Those magazines made to sell and sensationalize were Teheran's biggest proponents of his supposed super ace upside. I also didnt need a list to think of the vast majority of those names.

All those pitchers mentioned could be said to have #1 upside. Throw Danny Hultzen on the list of still prospects I would take over him. Give me Fernandez and possibly Biddle by next year over Teheran just within his own division.

[Nomar]

There's no way Zunino, D'Arnaud, Cole, Walker, Bauer, Taillon, Wheeler, Bradley and a host of those others are more valuable. Teheran is basically those pitchers 2 years ago. Dylan Bundy is the only low level pitching prospect that's definitely worth more. I know you're basing this on BA's top 100 or whatever, but that doesn't do the real picture justice. Those lists are made to sell magazines, and therefore they want new prospects to be excited about. Talk to any GM and they'll take a ML ready potential ace before any low level prospect. Guys like Taveras and Profar are worth more because of how advanced they are along with their ceilings.

Right now in trade those guys are all worth more. That's why Teheran wont be traded. Atlanta would rather let him completely bust than trade him at his current value, which is definitely lower than all of the guys you just listed.

[ChicagoCubsTalk]

Im pretty jealous the Braves have both Uptons plus Heyward in the outfield...its so crazy.

[flea]

His value is low, relative to what it's been, to be sure. But on an open market? ML ready pitching is what every single team is looking for. Teheran would have probably gone straight up for 3 years of Upton. I follow prospects, and especially Braves ones, like the rest of the baseball world but I think the recent hype with BA and BP top 100s has obscured true trading value. It's not necessarily the case that the #1 BA prospect is the most valuable one. Case in point: Wil Myers.

[SenorGato]

I'm going to go ahead and assume you're a Braves fan. Teheran straight up for Upton? You are one of those people who has had trade value obscured by those top 100 lists.

[flea]

Look at this pot with his kettle. No, I'm not obscured. Blockbuster trades aren't generally done straight up so it would have likely included lesser prospect shuffling but I guarantee Teheran was the first word out of Kevin Towers's mouth when trade dialogues started. You can simper and equivocate all you want but it won't change the value of ML ready pitching to MLB teams. Nobody is saying that in a vacuum you might want a Bundy or Taveras, or that the Astros would be better off with a Tajuan Walker than a Julio Teheran - but those are outliers.

[SenorGato]

Your garauntee over what you believe was said has less basis in truth or anything really than you seem to believe. I'm not even sure what the second half is supposed to mean.

If you believe that Upton for Teheran would and could be a one for one type deal then you are most definitely overvaluing the ever living crap out of a top prospect. Blockbuster trades like that don't happen because one prospect is not worth a potentially elite 25 year old who's at worst a solid starter who can give you 30 HRs in a given year without a major breakout.

[Jeffy25]

The Braves outfield is the best in the league on paper.

Do you mean the best in name recognition?

Because I don't believe they are the best outfield in baseball.

[HowFit]

Do you mean the best in name recognition?

Because I don't believe they are the best outfield in baseball.

Nobody is the best til we what what the season brings. Now, you can say you don't believe they WILL be the best outfield in baseball....

[Nomar]

Teheran clearly isn't MLB ready and no way in hell was worth three years of Upton. Just because he once was the top prospect doesn't mean his value can't go down. He is a B prospect right now. How big of a homer can you be?

[AmericanDream]

The Braves outfield is the best in the league on paper.

Uh no, sorry.

Angels outfield Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout, Peter Bourjos.

I'd even take Granderson, Ichiro and Gardner over the Braves outfield.

[Nomar]

Uh no, sorry.

Angels outfield Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout, Peter Bourjos.

I'd even take Granderson, Ichiro and Gardner over the Braves outfield.

Come on now