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  1. #406
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    Quote Originally Posted by brave/cuban View Post
    You can't compared Trumbo with any of the Atlanta outfields , Trout and Hamilton are great. but not Trumbo and by the way the 3 from the braves are a 5 tools players and only 2 of the angels are 5 tools players.
    One of those 5 tools in batting average. BJ Upton = LOL in batting avg...

    so no the Braves don't have three 5 tool OFers. At one point it was said that BJ would be that but he's literally been terrible and pathetic at batting avg. Definitely got speed and power though.

    I understand you're a Braves fan but even you can't think their OF is better than the Angels. I don't care about Trumbo's defense in the OF. He's got Trout and Hamilton out there with him and he's a 30+, possible 100 RBI guy with a decent avg.. That's incredible offense from a team's third best OFer. The Angels have quite possibly the two best OFers in all of baseball. Anyone decent as their 3rd OFer would probably still give them the overall best.

    I'm not knocking the Braves here at all. They have a great OF, probably 2nd best. But the BEST has to be the Angels right now. We'll see how it plays out.
    Last edited by bklynny67; 01-27-2013 at 01:14 AM.

  2. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by bklynny67 View Post
    One of those 5 tools in batting average. BJ Upton = LOL in batting avg...

    so no the Braves don't have three 5 tool OFers. At one point it was said that BJ would be that but he's literally been terrible and pathetic at batting avg. Definitely got speed and power though.

    I understand you're a Braves fan but even you can't think their OF is better than the Angels. I don't care about Trumbo's defense in the OF. He's got Trout and Hamilton out there with him and he's a 30+, possible 100 RBI guy with a decent avg.. That's incredible offense from a team's third best OFer. The Angels have quite possibly the two best OFers in all of baseball. Anyone decent as their 3rd OFer would probably still give them the overall best.

    I'm not knocking the Braves here at all. They have a great OF, probably 2nd best. But the BEST has to be the Angels right now. We'll see how it plays out.
    That's exactly what we should do...

  3. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2009mvp View Post
    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/q...t-stove-012413

    I don't know if there are actually any DBack fans on here, but yeah, it must suck when your organization is run with that kind of mentality.

    I am one, and yes, I am dissapointed in what Towers has done. I initially liked his moves when he first arrived. This offseason has me puzzled. I read an article here:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/snakebi...041239192.html

    Basically, they want gritty, hard working players. Which is fine, if you wanna give up the 2 most talented players in the organization, I would like to of gotten more than Prado and a handful of "meh" prospects between the 2.

    I don't think, overall, we will be a bad team.. I just think at some point you are going to need a top tier talent to win, via pitching or hitting. We do not appear to have that player anymore. Maybe Paul Goldschmidt can develope into that guy. We will see. I am frustrated though, with the moves we have made thus far, this offseason.

  4. #409
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    I think Towers has been watching moneyball a little way to much.

  5. #410
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    Quote Originally Posted by bklynny67 View Post
    One of those 5 tools in batting average. BJ Upton = LOL in batting avg...

    so no the Braves don't have three 5 tool OFers. At one point it was said that BJ would be that but he's literally been terrible and pathetic at batting avg. Definitely got speed and power though.

    I understand you're a Braves fan but even you can't think their OF is better than the Angels. I don't care about Trumbo's defense in the OF. He's got Trout and Hamilton out there with him and he's a 30+, possible 100 RBI guy with a decent avg.. That's incredible offense from a team's third best OFer. The Angels have quite possibly the two best OFers in all of baseball. Anyone decent as their 3rd OFer would probably still give them the overall best.

    I'm not knocking the Braves here at all. They have a great OF, probably 2nd best. But the BEST has to be the Angels right now. We'll see how it plays out.
    Well Trumbo is a 259 average carrier hitter and he DON'T stolen bases and DON'T is a good fielder, so how you can say Angels outfields is better than the braves, you have 2 excellent and the braves have 3.

  6. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by brave/cuban View Post
    Well Trumbo is a 259 average carrier hitter and he DON'T stolen bases and DON'T is a good fielder, so how you can say Angels outfields is better than the braves, you have 2 excellent and the braves have 3.

    Because Trout is the best player in the game....mainly that.

    Hamilton is a top 10 hitter in the entire game and he plays left.

    And Trumbo, while not much, has enough power to be significant.

    Hamilton, Trout, and Trumbo should combine for about 13-17 WAR all by themselves
    Hamilton is a 4-5, Trout is a 6-8, and Trumbo is a 3-4


    The Braves outfield is a little different
    Upton is a safe bet for a 3, and could be as great as a 6 WAR. B.J. Upton is a 2-3 WAR, and Heyward is a 4-7 WAR.

    There is a lower floor, and a good ceiling out of the Braves outfield.

    That's 9-16 WAR

    The Braves could play to their full potential, and still be short of the Angels. The Angels outfield was the best in baseball last year, and they added Josh Hamilton replacing Tori Hunter.


    Btw, the Cardinals belong in this discussion no homer.

    Matt Holliday is a safe 5-6 WAR LFer, Jay is a safe 3 WAR, and Beltran is a safe 4-5 WAR with Taveras serving as the first backup to replace them if there are any injuries and he already has 3 WAR projections if he played in the MLB this year.

    That's 12-14 WAR and keeps them in this group.



    I honestly don't think the Braves outfield will be better than it was last year. Most of their value came in being the best defensive outfield in baseball (if they were second to anybody it would be the Angels). All three of them provided significant value defensively while being okay to good offensively. B.J. Upton is a down grade for Michael Bourn most likely, and while J. Upton is better than Prado, it might not be that significant.

    Jason Heyward should continue to get better though.

  7. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Because Trout is the best player in the game....mainly that.

    Hamilton is a top 10 hitter in the entire game and he plays left.

    And Trumbo, while not much, has enough power to be significant.

    Hamilton, Trout, and Trumbo should combine for about 13-17 WAR all by themselves
    Hamilton is a 4-5, Trout is a 6-8, and Trumbo is a 3-4


    The Braves outfield is a little different
    Upton is a safe bet for a 3, and could be as great as a 6 WAR. B.J. Upton is a 2-3 WAR, and Heyward is a 4-7 WAR.

    There is a lower floor, and a good ceiling out of the Braves outfield.

    That's 9-16 WAR

    The Braves could play to their full potential, and still be short of the Angels. The Angels outfield was the best in baseball last year, and they added Josh Hamilton replacing Tori Hunter.


    Btw, the Cardinals belong in this discussion no homer.

    Matt Holliday is a safe 5-6 WAR LFer, Jay is a safe 3 WAR, and Beltran is a safe 4-5 WAR with Taveras serving as the first backup to replace them if there are any injuries and he already has 3 WAR projections if he played in the MLB this year.

    That's 12-14 WAR and keeps them in this group.



    I honestly don't think the Braves outfield will be better than it was last year. Most of their value came in being the best defensive outfield in baseball (if they were second to anybody it would be the Angels). All three of them provided significant value defensively while being okay to good offensively. B.J. Upton is a down grade for Michael Bourn most likely, and while J. Upton is better than Prado, it might not be that significant.

    Jason Heyward should continue to get better though.
    I don't know you , but when i think in outfields a think in defense, speed , assistance and a canon for arm, and i don't see this in the angels outfields, Only Trout have those thing, Hamilton is average fielder and Trumbo is a poor fielder. And in the case of Cardinals Jay is very good, Beltran in this moment is average and holliday is poor fielder, that been say i wand to know your opinion.

  8. #413
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    ^ Just my opinion, but Beltran hasn't been a 5 fWAR player since 2008, so i will put him as a safe 3-4 player. Justin Upton has averaged 4.2 fWAR in the last 4 years so you can say he is safe to be a 4-6 fWAR player, BJ Upton was a 2.4 fWAR player in 2009 for the last three years he has been 4.1-4.1-3.3 so he is a safe bet to be 3-5 WAR.

    That being said the braves project to be a 11-18 fWAR
    The Cardinals project to be a 11-14 fWAR

    So, since the ceiling is higher i'll take braves outfield over the Cards.

  9. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by brave/cuban View Post
    I don't know you , but when i think in outfields a think in defense, speed , assistance and a canon for arm, and i don't see this in the angels outfields, Only Trout have those thing, Hamilton is average fielder and Trumbo is a poor fielder. And in the case of Cardinals Jay is very good, Beltran in this moment is average and holliday is poor fielder, that been say i wand to know your opinion.
    Holliday used to be a good fielder, but he has been slipping. Beltran is still a large plus in right. Jay is a solid player, nothing special, but a good reliable starter. He lacks power, so his skill set will always be limited around that.

    It isn't just defense, but defense is important. The Angels have the offense.

  10. #415
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    Quote Originally Posted by beldugo View Post
    ^ Just my opinion, but Beltran hasn't been a 5 fWAR player since 2008, so i will put him as a safe 3-4 player. Justin Upton has averaged 4.2 fWAR in the last 4 years so you can say he is safe to be a 4-6 fWAR player, BJ Upton was a 2.4 fWAR player in 2009 for the last three years he has been 4.1-4.1-3.3 so he is a safe bet to be 3-5 WAR.

    That being said the braves project to be a 11-18 fWAR
    The Cardinals project to be a 11-14 fWAR

    So, since the ceiling is higher i'll take braves outfield over the Cards.
    fwiw, I was going based on rWAR. But it doesn't really matter. It was just a snap-shot view of overall value. Not meant to end the argument or anything.

    I'd still take the Angels as my first choice.

  11. #416
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    fwiw, I was going based on rWAR. But it doesn't really matter. It was just a snap-shot view of overall value. Not meant to end the argument or anything.

    I'd still take the Angels as my first choice.
    Yeah i'd take the Angels too, just for the record, i know rWAR value defense more than Fangraphs, but i always use fangraphs WAR, in your opinion which one of the two is better?

  12. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by beldugo View Post
    Yeah i'd take the Angels too, just for the record, i know rWAR value defense more than Fangraphs, but i always use fangraphs WAR, in your opinion which one of the two is better?
    I feel that Fangraphs overly values defense on players more than 10+ or -10 from UZR.

    But that's just me.

    I like Baseball-reference WAR a little more, especially for position players.

    Pitchers, it depends if you are looking for earned results or run prevention.

  13. #418
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    In general I don't like WAR for pitchers all too much.

    Like Jeffy says, there's a point where defense starts to get weighted way too much on fangraphs. Look at Heyward for example. He had a great year, but I think he got a little too much credit there.

    Defense is the hardest thing for me to decide on how much it impacts each game. For example, many here would agree the Braves have a better outfield than St Louis. I probably would myself really. But there's no question than STL's OF is the better hitting one, and it's hard for me to say that Upton(s)' and Heywards' defense will bring their value above Holiday, Jay, and Beltran's value. WAR tells you that it will.

  14. #419
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    I think i have the defensive WAR of rWAR and fWAR mixed up, fangraphs really give too much credit on defense value, i think that i find fangraphs to be a more complete website so i always use fWAR, but the defensive value seems like a little bit overvalued.

  15. #420
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    It's why I like Net Runs Created

    Heyward for example
    93 RC
    20 DRS
    2.71 positional adjustment
    7.7 BSR
    =123.42

    vs say Trumbo
    81 RC
    1 DRS
    2.44 positional adjustment
    -0.9 BSR
    = 83.54

    Kind of gives you an idea how much better Heyward is than Trumbo. The value of about 4 wins.

    And then you pull out the best player in the game (Trout) and compare him to someone weaker like B.J. Upton and it's a wow moment

    Trout
    121 RC
    21 DRS
    7.53 Positional Adjustment
    12.0 BSR
    = 162.53

    Upton
    76 RC
    -4 DRS
    7.91 Positional Adjustment
    4.0 BSR
    = 83.91

    That's a difference of about 8 wins, which is fair....considering Trout led all of baseball in each category...because he is a total boss (except for RC, just behind Miggy)

    Josh Hamilton vs Justin Upton?

    JH
    109 RC
    -9 DRS
    4.71 Positional Adjusment
    4.0 BSR
    = 108.71

    J. Upton
    85 RC
    2 DRS
    2.62 Positional Adjustment
    3.1 BSR
    = 92.72

    So close to two wins, not quite there.

    So just in terms of these six players vs each other in 2012.

    Braves = 291.25
    Angels = 354.78

    That's 6 wins in favor of the Angels.


    Cardinals btw
    Holliday - 110.5
    Jay - 80.4 (missed the most playing time due to freak injury)
    Beltran - 90.4
    = 281.3 (and the least playing time)

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