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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    I wouldn't say a run saved is a run earned, that's a bad way to put it. A better way of saying it is a run saved contributes to a better run differential for the team.

    Btw, if there was no DH do you think David Ortiz would not be an every day player?

    Imo, he'd be a first baseman.
    The point of the game is to score more runs than the opponent. Runs are equal to one another so it really doesn't matter whether you won 2-1 or 1-0. The more runs you save, the more likely you are to win, the more runs you score, the more likely you are to win. A run saved is equal to a run scored. But if you want to get really technical about it, if you break down the pythag formula, you'd find that a run saved is actually ever so lightly more valuable than a run scored. This is because runs are more valuable in low run scoring environments.

    I don't know why you bring up Ortiz. Of course he would play. His bat is worth whatever defensive problems he has. But his team would be sacrificing a few more runs and be less likely to win because he's a poor fielder.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheezombie View Post
    The point of the game is to score more runs than the opponent. Runs are equal to one another so it really doesn't matter whether you won 2-1 or 1-0. The more runs you save, the more likely you are to win, the more runs you score, the more likely you are to win. A run saved is equal to a run scored. But if you want to get really technical about it, if you break down the pythag formula, you'd find that a run saved is actually ever so lightly more valuable than a run scored. This is because runs are more valuable in low run scoring environments.

    I don't know why you bring up Ortiz. Of course he would play. His bat is worth whatever defensive problems he has. But his team would be sacrificing a few more runs and be less likely to win because he's a poor fielder.
    All I said is that isn't a good way to say it, yeesh I understand what it means just that it could be taken the wrong way with how jej worded it.

    I bring up Ortiz because there's a perception that because he's a DH some people think he wouldn't be an every day player or even in the league because he's a DH.

  3. #63
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    If there were no DH, then that spot would be filled with the P leaving just 8 offensive slots in the order, Ortiz would definitely be an everyday player.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cheezombie View Post
    If there were no DH, then that spot would be filled with the P leaving just 8 offensive slots in the order, Ortiz would definitely be an everyday player.
    I was going to reply to this but then that would be opening discussion that should be for other topics so i'm just going to say I agree with this.

  5. #65
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    You guys took this way off on a tangent that I didn't even mean. All I said was a run saved is a run earned, and that's true. I didnt say this position or that position, yada yada yada.

    If you save a run in the field, you have just as good a chance to win as you do when you create a run, or at least very near equal.

    I don't see how this is simplistic at all like people say. It's simplistic to put weight into certain tradition stats like I'm sure a lot of you do. It's simplistic to think "OMG HR and RBI!" And completely ignore defense.

    If you save a run in the OF, the game is 0-0. If you don't, but then you create a run, the game is 1-1. No different in terms of differential.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    You guys took this way off on a tangent that I didn't even mean. All I said was a run saved is a run earned, and that's true. I didnt say this position or that position, yada yada yada.

    If you save a run in the field, you have just as good a chance to win as you do when you create a run, or at least very near equal.

    I don't see how this is simplistic at all like people say. It's simplistic to put weight into certain tradition stats like I'm sure a lot of you do. It's simplistic to think "OMG HR and RBI!" And completely ignore defense.

    If you save a run in the OF, the game is 0-0. If you don't, but then you create a run, the game is 1-1. No different in terms of differential.
    Um, when did anyone say that?

    lol you really think you have some ground breaking ideas, don't you?

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hickenlooper View Post
    I don't even know why they play the games anymore.
    So I am going to assume you like other sports other than baseball. Is this correct?

    So before each game in each sport there is a line set for the game correct? Or even before the season there are odds on favorites to win correct?

    So why do they play those games?

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hickenlooper View Post
    Um, when did anyone say that?

    lol you really think you have some ground breaking ideas, don't you?
    Um, when did I ever say that?

    I think my ideas are more logical and accurate, but I don't have any ground breaking ideas. I didnt make this up. Other people did the work, and I believe what the evidence says
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  9. #69
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    Plus, I never said that you do think like that. I said I'm sure a lot do, judging by your mindset on SABR stats.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    Not all the time, sometimes the best team in the regular season just dominates the post season. It's rare though.
    Thing about a crapshoot is that sometimes you can roll a 7 or 11.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by VladTheImpaler View Post
    It really doesn't. Over half of preventing runs is pitching and half of the rest is luck. That's one problem WAR has, assuming that much. That's why you see guys like Bourn or Franklin Guterriez have a year where they're top 15 in WAR and then are never heard from again.
    The way jej worded it was probably incorrect.

    But a run saved on defense is worth a run produced on offense.

    Which is basically what he was trying to say.

  12. #72
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    That's what I said later.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    That's what I said later.
    The problem was probably with your original wording that "defense is as important as offense." In theory, while that is somewhat true, the reality is that the large, large majority of players create more runs than they save. So, offense seems to be more important in those terms.

  14. #74
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    I think that the issue with these composite statistics is that they are basically numbers that mean nothing because they're all valued based on our perception of what is valuable, what is best. The strategy is to throw a bunch of numbers into an equation, plop out a number, and say, "Here's a statistic, it should never be taken in isolation as an evaluation of a player. However, it is a good 'snapshot' of how good the player is." I question, then, why we even need such a statistic as it seems to be trending in an opposite direction in terms of the proposed goal of sabermaticians which is generally reducing the amount of ignorance by providing means of hyper-analysis. In other words, why do we need a statistic that is a composite of other statistics which doesn't definitively tell us who the best players are. Isn't the statistic then useless?

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by LechWalesa View Post
    I think that the issue with these composite statistics is that they are basically numbers that mean nothing because they're all valued based on our perception of what is valuable, what is best. The strategy is to throw a bunch of numbers into an equation, plop out a number, and say, "Here's a statistic, it should never be taken in isolation as an evaluation of a player. However, it is a good 'snapshot' of how good the player is." I question, then, why we even need such a statistic as it seems to be trending in an opposite direction in terms of the proposed goal of sabermaticians which is generally reducing the amount of ignorance by providing means of hyper-analysis. In other words, why do we need a statistic that is a composite of other statistics which doesn't definitively tell us who the best players are. Isn't the statistic then useless?
    Great argument.

    Rarely does sabrmetrics actually have to defend itself because the arguments that are created are buried in ignorance and worded poorly.

    So I applaud you for making a sensical argument against WAR. The very first that I can recall on PSD actually.


    My response. I think it's better to have that snap-shot statistic rather than to not have it.

    Ideally it would be a universally defined statistic for player value. But with so much variance in defensive metrics, it's got work ahead of it until we know for a certainty how to define defensive values like we can offensive values.

    I think when you group WAR and WPA (win probability added) together, you have the context of a players true value.

    Then adding in other stats like net runs created, and WARP then you have a really good idea of how valuable a player truly is.

    But it also comes with the assumption that you can define player value by the creation of runs and the avoidance of outs. Which I personally think is a safe assumption.

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