Comparison: Overall Team WAR vs. World Series Championships

[sixer04fan]

Objective: Determine if WAR is a strong indicator for winning World Series championships.

Many of us use WAR as an all-telling statistic to compare players and to see how good a player is truly performing. On the other hand, there are many of us that stick to more traditional measures to judge a player's production, such as hits/runs/RBIs/etc. In this forum, both sides are constantly fighting over who's right and who's wrong. At the end of the day, what matters most in my opinion is how much those players are contributing to winning championships each year, regardless of which stats you're using to rate and judge said players.

I have been searching for a source online that can tell me the total WAR each season for an entire team. I'd like to find the highest total WAR team for each season, and then to see how often those teams end up winning the World Series. The latter is pretty easy, obviously. I can do that myself once I figure out who the highest total WAR teams are in each season. If there is already a site out there that has done this, please let me know.

I've tried checking, searching through Google and baseball-reference, but I haven't found anything. Maybe I'm not checking the proper channels, but this isn't one of those selfish threads where I ask a question that I could easily look up myself. I have legitimately tried, but to no avail. If anyone can help out, that would be great.

I realize that the playoffs are a bit more of a crap shoot than overall regular season records, so it can't be expected that the team with the highest total WAR would consistently end up winning the championship that year... But I believe there is a big enough sample size of seasons and of championships won, that if there truly is a strong correlation between WAR and winning championships, it will show.

Thanks in advance!

[mtf]

Your post might have more merit if you were looking at the correlation between combined WAR and playoff spots rather than World Series Championships. The playoffs are a short tournament, and the best teams don't always win.

[ugafan]

Playoffs are a crapshoot.

[sixer04fan]

Your post might have more merit if you were looking at the correlation between combined WAR and playoff spots rather than World Series Championships. The playoffs are a short tournament, and the best teams don't always win.

Very good point. I agree, and I'd be very interested in that too, but consider my last paragraph:

I realize that the playoffs are a bit more of a crap shoot than overall regular season records, so it can't be expected that the team with the highest total WAR would consistently end up winning the championship that year... But I believe there is a big enough sample size of seasons and of championships won, that if there truly is a strong correlation between WAR and winning championships, it will show.

But it would definitely be expected that there would be an even stronger correlation between team WAR and playoff seed. I would almost guarantee there is an extremely strong correlation there. And this is coming from someone who isn't too knowledgeable on that matter.

[Vampirate]

Playoffs are a crapshoot.

Not all the time, sometimes the best team in the regular season just dominates the post season. It's rare though.

[Nomar]

The best teams win in the playoffs more often than the worst, but there's 8 teams after the wild card games so you have 3 series to win. One bad streak and your gone and in any series there's plenty of time to go cold.

[sixer04fan]

Playoffs are a crapshoot.

I know, I addressed that. But also, in other words, you don't know the answer to my question either.

[Vampirate]

Not only that Nomar, sometimes a very hot team like the Rockies who we're on a roll a couple of years ago can suddenly go cold if there is a long period to wait before resuming playing again.

[VRP723]

No one intelligent has ever said "WAR is a strong indicator for winning World Series championships."

It's a strong indicator of winning games, not championships.

[mtf]

Not all the time, sometimes the best team in the regular season just dominates the post season. It's rare though.

You're kinda confirming what he said rather than refuting it.

[sixer04fan]

No one intelligent has ever said "WAR is a strong indicator for winning World Series championships."

I never said anyone did.

It's a strong indicator of winning games, not championships.

I know that. I'd like to see if there's a correlation with championships as well.

[Cheezombie]

You will see a higher correlation the further back you go in baseball history. It used to be the team with the best record in their respective leagues went to the WS, then they added the Championship Series, then the Division Series in the 90s, and now we have the WC game. The more diluted the playoffs get, the less of a correlation you will see with the best WAR winning the WS.

[Jeffy25]

The post season is a huge crapshoot. The best team in baseball doesn't always, or even frequently win the World Series. It's a group of short series' that take a few games to determine the winners.

We play 162 games to find out the best teams in baseball for the post-season, and then put a group of them together to play best of 5 and 7 or even best of 1 and they advance. It's a huge crapshoot when you get to the post-season.

What you will find, is that the team with the best WAR will be the teams with the best run differentials, and likely the best overall records. It will not bring up the World Series winners very often.

Go back 50 years, sure, back when the two best teams made the playoffs every year. Now? No way. You have the 10 best of 30 teams make the playoffs, and any one of those 10 can win in any given year.

Basically, looking through top WAR seasons by teams won't yield you much other than the best run differentials.

[Jeffy25]

I never said anyone did.



I know that. I'd like to see if there's a correlation with championships as well.

It won't. It's too much of a crap shoot.

[SFrush90]

I don't mean to nit pick, but from posters I've seen, most don't use WAR as an all-telling statistic. I see it more so used bunched it with other stats to help show how productive a player is or not.