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View Poll Results: Who is the Mets #10 Prospect for 2013?

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  • Luis Mateo

    1 4.17%
  • Matt den Dekker

    2 8.33%
  • Cory Mazzoni

    0 0%
  • Hansel Robles

    0 0%
  • Cory Vaughn

    0 0%
  • Phillip Evans

    1 4.17%
  • Kevin Plawecki

    1 4.17%
  • Jeurys Familia

    8 33.33%
  • Darrell Ceciliani

    1 4.17%
  • Domingo Tapia

    10 41.67%
  • Amed Rosario

    0 0%
  • Cesar Puello

    0 0%
  • Aderlin Rodriguez

    0 0%
  • Darin Gorski

    0 0%
  • Collin McHugh

    0 0%
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  1. #1
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    2013 PSD Mets Forum #10 Mets Prospect

    Vote for who you think is the Mets #10 prospect for 2013.

  2. #2
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    I will go with Tapia here once again.

  3. #3
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    Tapia here. Gotta love the fastball, GB rates, size, and projectability. His change has heavy sink like his two-seamer. If his breaking ball comes around, look out.

  4. #4
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    familia still

  5. #5
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    Tapia for all the previously listed reasons in the last thread. He has the most explosive arm in the organization right now.

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  6. #6
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    Kevin Plawecki is a backstop we're counting on. Its been awhile since we drafted a catcher this high. I think 2013 will show us the skills he was drafted for.. hitting and good defense!
    " You seek Yoda!

  7. #7
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    Familia until he wins.

  8. #8
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    If you look at peripherals, Familia was nearly as good as Harvey in AAA last year.

    IP ERA FIP SIERA K% BB% KS%
    137 4.73 3.75 4.07 20.5 11.5 16.2 Familia
    110 3.68 3.67 3.69 23.7 10.1 16.7 Harvey

    Familia was hit a little more, but that's partly because he was more of a ground ball pitcher, with a 50.5% GB rate. He also had a lower LD% and a lower HR rate. The biggest reason for the difference in ERA was he was much worse with men on base.

    Granted, with his struggles with command, and with the change, and the way he attempts to overpower batters with that sinking fastball, he'll remind you more of Mike Pelfrey as a SP than Matt Harvey. But I think even if he ends up in the pen, he'll probably ultimately be better there than Bobby Parnell.

    I think Tapia is similar, with comparable upside, but Familia right now has better secondaries, and is obviously closer to MLB. Tapia is 2 years younger, but was 3 levels lower. He's pretty much where Familia was in 2009. He has similar peripherals to Familia that year, but a higher ERA (3.98 vs. 2.69).

    Overall, the big separator there for me is the breaking ball. The most important secondary for a RHP is the breaking pitch. For a LHP, it can be the change. In this case, Tapia has a similar fastball and change to Familia, but has had more difficulty with the breaking pitch, and probably won't develop a good one. So I think they are very close, but Familia for me has the better stuff, higher upside, and better performance track record.

  9. #9
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    Familia lacks the pitchability, command, make-up, mechanics, and change-up to be better than Harvey regardless of their peripherals in AAA. Familia has great stuff, his fastball and slider are overpowering, but his change is non-existent.

    Tapia has the better overall fastball(best in the system) because he can throw the 4 seamer at ~100 MPH, and sink his 2 seamer regularly in the mid-90s. His change sinks similarly to his 2 seamer which gives him some deception. It can truly be nasty at times, so I feel if Tapia can develop an average breaking ball, he can be a front-line guy. His fastball command is better than Familia, which is the foundation for a pitcher.

    I think Tapia will be like a better version of Pelfrey, in that he gets more grounders and swings and misses. Familia I feel can be an elite reliever if his command doesn't go away from him.
    Last edited by YoungStuna; 01-22-2013 at 08:14 AM.

  10. #10
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    But that is all Tapia has...2 fastballs.
    The change wasn't anything special the time I saw him.

    He looks like a reliever to me now and he's a low single A pitcher.
    Familia has already pitched in the Majors, an outside of the one bad outing which could have been averted had they turned two with Cedeno and Jordany.


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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    But that is all Tapia has...2 fastballs.
    The change wasn't anything special the time I saw him.

    He looks like a reliever to me now and he's a low single A pitcher.
    Familia has already pitched in the Majors, an outside of the one bad outing which could have been averted had they turned two with Cedeno and Jordany.
    Look at this change:

    http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.j...36707&sid=t543

    That movement is sick. Was Familia any better when he was in Savannah? Something tells me Tapia won't struggle like Familia did when he went to St. Lucie.

  12. #12
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    The main reason why I have Tapia ahead of Familia is control and command, as of now Tapia can command his two fastballs and locate them well, Familia has very little command of his arsenal and since Tapia is 2 years younger I think that like Familia he could develop better secondaries. Familia did not have anything aside from a fastball when he was in Savannah. That is why the Mets had him throw a lot of change ups and let the results be dammed, it was about him learning to throw a change and he has improved it a lot over those 2-3 years. Yet his command is still an issue.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    The main reason why I have Tapia ahead of Familia is control and command, as of now Tapia can command his two fastballs and locate them well, Familia has very little command of his arsenal and since Tapia is 2 years younger I think that like Familia he could develop better secondaries. Familia did not have anything aside from a fastball when he was in Savannah. That is why the Mets had him throw a lot of change ups and let the results be dammed, it was about him learning to throw a change and he has improved it a lot over those 2-3 years. Yet his command is still an issue.
    Yeah, that's the breaking point for me too. I still don't think Familia's change is that good though.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    Look at this change:

    http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.j...36707&sid=t543
    That movement is sick. Was Familia any better when he was in Savannah? Something tells me Tapia won't struggle like Familia did when he went to St. Lucie.
    He might if his 4 seam fastball becomes flat, which is what happened to him when I saw him in Lakewood.


    ďNinety percent Iíll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent Iíll probably waste.Ē
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claymation View Post
    He might if his 4 seam fastball becomes flat, which is what happened to him when I saw him in Lakewood.
    His four-seamer is flat, but I believe he uses it when he wants to go up in the strike zone. His 2 seamer is his go-to weapon.

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