Savannah Pitching

[championmets]

So I have a question about the pitching prospects from Savannah. Every year it seems like there are 2-3 really good pitchers coming form savannah. They seem like pitchers to get excited about, like they could be 3 pitchers that rise through the system and crush it in the majors. But then within 2 seasons of their time in savannah half of them have dwindled out and we dont even remember them and the other half are struggling to stay in the bullpen in AA.

In 2009 it was:
Familia, Kyle Allen, and Robert carson- familia is the only success, with allen forgoten and carson is barely a solid bullpen piece almost 4 years later

In 2010 it was:
Mark cohoon, james fuller, and darin gorski - cohoon now 26 is just OK at AA nothing special, fuller spent most of 2012 still in savannah and had an era above 6 and gorski struggled in AA

in 2011 it was
Chase Huchingson, Greg Peavy, and Erik Goeddel - Chase had a below avg season in st. lucie, peavy struggled big time in AA, and goeddel is the only one that found success in 2012.

so what is it that makes this years crop of Domingo Tapia, Rafael Montero, and Michael fulmer any different?

And how can we tell who is the real deal and who is just having success off of weak hitting in low A ball?

[metswon69]

so what is it that makes this years crop of Domingo Tapia, Rafael Montero, and Michael fulmer any different?

And how can we tell who is the real deal and who is just having success off of weak hitting in low A ball?

The stuff, the projectability, the makeup (especially it seems in Montero's case) and the fact that they still +have time to develop.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/sho...p-25-Prospects

Reference #7 and #8 of Sick's list if you need to know anything about Fulmer and Montero.

As for Tapia, he throws a plus four seam fastball that hits triple digits at times and his FIP (2.68) was much better than his ERA indicated. He also has a 2 seamer that has very good sink as he continues to work on his secondary offerings. The command was good too at 2.7 BBs per 9 innings.

Even with those offerings currently he could end up being a solid reliever/closer if he doesn't pan out in the rotation.

[YoungStuna]

Savannah pitchers pitch in Grayson Stadium, a very good pitching park, that would explain a lot. But it has more to do with the stuff, age, etc.

[Sick Of It All]

A few points.

1. The SAL is a pitching friendly league so many times pitchers will do well there specially more polished pitchers.

2. Guys like Familia had some projectability due to his frame and as he filled that frame he has added a few MPH to his fastball, but his command has not improve much. Allen had some projectability left to him, but he has had injuries and or simply topped off at AA and that happens with many guys. Carson has simply just not improved on his secondaries to stay a starter and is a pen arm now.

Cohoon and Fuller were all college pitchers who simply thrived or feasted on younger competition and they were pretty polished given the fact that they were college arms and just were older guys that did better vs younger guys. Though Gorski actually did really bad in Savannah, worst than he did at AA, He did a lot better in St. Lucie in 2011.

Goeddel and Peavey are also college guys that again likely just feasted on younger competition, Huchingson is a guy that is new to pitching, I think he is a guy that will struggle at times, but at times show glimpses that he could do better.

3. You have to look at a pitchers stuff, projectability and future development to see if they will likely be as good up the ladder.

4. It may be that none of those guys do well as they move up the ladder, but a guy like Fulmer was a teen there and did extremely well and has 2 possible plus pitches and you hope he improves on his command and develops other offerings as he moves up.

Tapia arguably has the best fastball in the system and good command, but his secondaries are lacking, he will need to improve on them to have success in the upper levels.

Montero is pretty polished and he may be a guy that feasted on inexperience guys, but he did even better in St. Lucie, though again AA will be the true test for a guy like him who does not have great stuff, all his pitches are about average, but he has excellent command.

5. It may be that 1, none or all 3 guys do well going forward, but you just never know who will and who will not. You just hope they develop their secondaries, reach their projection and improve their command. If they do all these they will likely have success going forward.

[Metsfan1963]

so what is it that makes this years crop of Domingo Tapia, Rafael Montero, and Michael fulmer any different?

And how can we tell who is the real deal and who is just having success off of weak hitting in low A ball?[/QUOTE]

We can't tell, and that's why extremely few pitchers go from Low A ball to the Majors ( I was going to say "no pitchers go from Low A to the Majors", but I'm sure someone would take the time to find someone), and that's why teams have more than one team in Low A. In Low A ball it's about learning and growing.

[Dugmet]

Per the SAl...read the scouting reports, and regard the stats with some skepticism. A pitcher with a decent breaking ball he can throw for strikes will do well regardless.

My favorite SAL over-acheiver was Ross Peeples who hit his ceiling with Capital City.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=peeple001ros

Honorable mention to Yusmeiro Petit who relied on some deception and hit his wall at AA.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=petit-001yus

Compare the numbers of Octavio Dotel, Ethan McIntyre, and Nelson Figueroa in the SAL in 1996. Figueroa and McIntyre put up bigger numbers, but everyone was on top of Dotel and mostly ignored the other two.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...gi?id=9b7a28e5

[acerimusdux]

And how can we tell who is the real deal and who is just having success off of weak hitting in low A ball?

Scouting.

Guys like Kyle Allen were never that great to begin with. People were projecting a little too much based on his age.

The current group though has all three of current stuff, some projection, and command. I think Tapia is getting over-rated a bit, as I think he still projects as a reliever, and I wouldn't take him there over Familia. But he's a power arm who has done a decent job throwing strikes. Montero I think actually gets a bit under-rated; his stuff is good enough and his command is special. He'll end up a Dillon Gee type. Fulmer could possibly end up a pen arm as well, but he was a first round supplemental draft pick who has definite big league stuff and also does a pretty good job of throwing strikes.

So I would say that group isn't as good as guys like Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard, but looks like a good group of guys who will have a good chance to be big leaguers in some role.

[alexandre302]

Stats below A+ is simply unreliable predictors of MLB success. For instance, James Fuller was a consensus division II pitcher of the year despite having a 89-91 FB topping out at 02 with a fringe CB and below average MLB CU. He spent 4 years in collage so he was 23-24 years old in the Sally. He has tremendous FB command meaning he often throws to the black on the inside or outside corner. That's good enough to get most Sally hitter out especially if Fuller effectively mixes the CU and CB in. He can get hitters to chase those pitches out of the K-zone. His CB is about MLB average, so he has a chance to be a RP in the majors because of FB command - key word A CHANCE.

Pitchers with good FB command and pitchability can put up good numbers at this level. You look at age and background to see if pitchers with limited stuff are simply ahead of hitters in low A. This why pitching stats at this level is fairly meaningless. You look at stuff not stats at this level..

[METMANYAK]

so what is it that makes this years crop of Domingo Tapia, Rafael Montero, and Michael fulmer any different?

And how can we tell who is the real deal and who is just having success off of weak hitting in low A ball?

We can't tell, and that's why extremely few pitchers go from Low A ball to the Majors ( I was going to say "no pitchers go from Low A to the Majors", but I'm sure someone would take the time to find someone), and that's why teams have more than one team in Low A. In Low A ball it's about learning and growing.[/QUOTE]

Doc Gooden, didn't even have to find that one.