Playing the "What If..." Game With Ellsbury

[Nomar]

As we know, Ellsbury and the Red Sox have agreed on a $9M deal for this season.

Based on the current market, a 3.5-4 WAR season would probably get Ellsbury into the 5 year, $100M range for contracts. Whether you guys fin that justifiable or not is completely up to you, but the market is changing. We've seen BJ Upton get 5 years, $75M without ever having a season close to as good as Ellsbury's 2011.

Here's where the "What If" kicks in. Remember that this is a hypothetical question. The scenario is fixed.

If Ellsbury repeats his 2011 season or is on pace to do so (.300 BA, 30+ HRs, 30+ SBs), would you like to see the Red Sox re-sign him as a LF? Or would you want them to re-sign him and trade JBJ?

Personally I would still want them to trade him by the deadline, or let him walk and take the pick, but I am interested to see what the rest of you think.

[Station 13]

Trade him if he is heading toward a 30/30 season at the deadline after an extension isn't reach, worth way more than a pick.

[Nomar]

Omitted that from the question and put it only in my answer on accident. Fixed.

[-Lavigne43-]

Ellsbury wouldn't be signed as a LF. He would play CF, and if JBjr is ready he would play RF. They 100% trade him, with Victorino on the team it makes 0 sense to keep him.

[bagwell368]

As we know, Ellsbury and the Red Sox have agreed on a $9M deal for this season.

Based on the current market, a 3.5-4 WAR season would probably get Ellsbury into the 5 year, $100M range for contracts. Whether you guys fin that justifiable or not is completely up to you, but the market is changing. We've seen BJ Upton get 5 years, $75M without ever having a season close to as good as Ellsbury's 2011.

Ellsbury's 2011 aside, Ellsbury's next best 4 seasons totaled is 6.6 WAR, and compared to Upton's 12.6. Upton is also a year younger then Ellsbury, and hasn't suffered nearly as many injuries. A 3.5-4 WAR saeason injury free season may not be enough for a $100M 5 yr contract.

Here's where the "What If" kicks in. Remember that this is a hypothetical question. The scenario is fixed.

If Ellsbury repeats his 2011 season or is on pace to do so (.300 BA, 30+ HRs, 30+ SBs), would you like to see the Red Sox re-sign him as a LF? Or would you want them to re-sign him and trade JBJ?

That's a lot more than a 3.5 WAR season.

Personally I would still want them to trade him by the deadline, or let him walk and take the pick, but I am interested to see what the rest of you think.

Trade at deadline/waivers or pick, do not sign to a $100M+ contract.

[BradytoGronkTD]

I say deal him at the deadline no matter what happens

[Nomar]

That's a lot more than a 3.5 WAR season.



Trade at deadline/waivers or pick, do not sign to a $100M+ contract.

Those two paragraphs weren't related in that sense. One was about the minimum level of play to get a big deal, the other was a repeat of his 9 WAR season. Obviously you know this, but just clarifying.

Agreed.

[todu82]

If we're a losing ball team at the deadline I support trading the guy. Only do it though if the deal benefits our team.

[RedSoxtober]

If Ellsbury repeats his 2011 season or is on pace to do so (.300 BA, 30+ HRs, 30+ SBs), would you like to see the Red Sox re-sign him as a LF? Or would you want them to re-sign him and trade JBJ?

Not sure which part is scenario. Is the scenario repeating the 2011 season or does it also include dealing JBJr? Does Ellsbury have to play LF?

IMO the scenario should just be Ellsbury repeating 2011 and questioning how you respond to that.

...and playing LF? No, he's not really a power hitter. He stays in LF and you have a lot more value.
...and dealing JBJr? No, Ellsbury emerging as a middle-order bat would mean that you can keep a more defensively oriented OF.

Overall I think the answer is still that you deal Ellsbury to the highest bidder for 2 high prospects (perhaps including the future 1B). Ellsbury IS going FA and is NOT re-signing in in BOS. He has not liked the city for some time and I doubt he has the motivation to return even if he signs over market. Given that the Sox' seem to be on the 4-yr-max approach again he seems far more likely to sign his 6-7yr deal somewhere else.

[grandsalami]

trade him only if the return is good, otherwise get the pick

[Nomar]

Not sure which part is scenario. Is the scenario repeating the 2011 season or does it also include dealing JBJr? Does Ellsbury have to play LF?

IMO the scenario should just be Ellsbury repeating 2011 and questioning how you respond to that.

...and playing LF? No, he's not really a power hitter. He stays in LF and you have a lot more value.
...and dealing JBJr? No, Ellsbury emerging as a middle-order bat would mean that you can keep a more defensively oriented OF.

Overall I think the answer is still that you deal Ellsbury to the highest bidder for 2 high prospects (perhaps including the future 1B). Ellsbury IS going FA and is NOT re-signing in in BOS. He has not liked the city for some time and I doubt he has the motivation to return even if he signs over market. Given that the Sox' seem to be on the 4-yr-max approach again he seems far more likely to sign his 6-7yr deal somewhere else.

The first part was my scenario like if he showed thirty home run power, but anyways I agree with what you said.

[-Lavigne43-]

It doesn't matter if JBjr is better defensively in center than Ellsbury. An outfield with Ells in CF and JBjr in RF is better than an outfield with Ells in LF and JBjr in CF.

But the Victorino signing means there's almost no chance Ellsbury returns. The only way he does is if he has a decent season, no one is willing to give up more value than a draft pick, we offer him a QO and his interest is like Michael Bourn's.

[LA Sox Fan]

Nothing that Ellsbury does this coming season will make me want the Sox to resign him. I don't care if he matches his 2011 production, improves on his 2011 production or, more likely, gets injured and misses significant time. His skill set is unquestioned but his consistency, health and heart are very questionable. Not to mention that I keep hearing how he hates playing in Boston.

If the Sox are out of it at the deadline then I'd love to see him moved. Or let him play out the season and take the pick when he leaves for some grossly overvalued FA contract. Just don't resign him.

This topic kind of brings up an interesting question, which is do you think the Red Sox really will be sellers next season even if they're out of contention? I know they had the great salary purge at the end of last season, but that was after the deadline. Knowing what we know about ownership, do you think they would green light trading guys at the deadline when doing so basically means saying they're throwing in the towel?

[bagwell368]

Nothing that Ellsbury does this coming season will make me want the Sox to resign him. I don't care if he matches his 2011 production, improves on his 2011 production or, more likely, gets injured and misses significant time. His skill set is unquestioned but his consistency, health and heart are very questionable. Not to mention that I keep hearing how he hates playing in Boston.

If the Sox are out of it at the deadline then I'd love to see him moved. Or let him play out the season and take the pick when he leaves for some grossly overvalued FA contract. Just don't resign him.

This topic kind of brings up an interesting question, which is do you think the Red Sox really will be sellers next season even if they're out of contention? I know they had the great salary purge at the end of last season, but that was after the deadline. Knowing what we know about ownership, do you think they would green light trading guys at the deadline when doing so basically means saying they're throwing in the towel?

I hope so. This team is more likely to be 80-82 than 90-72. I hope we're flat line enough to be obvious that we are not playoff bound, then the FO can say the obvious:

We tried to patch things up. It wasn't enough for this year. We've moved a few players to get younger players in. The plan is that we will contend in 2014, and plan on being strong contenders in 2015.

Given the failure of the previous teams dating back to 2008, and the horrific collapse of 2011, and poor showing in 2012. I think fans can understand the need to move on, and would rather hear about a clear plan than just hoping things will get better.

[LA Sox Fan]

I hope so. This team is more likely to be 80-82 than 90-72. I hope we're flat line enough to be obvious that we are not playoff bound, then the FO can say the obvious:

We tried to patch things up. It wasn't enough for this year. We've moved a few players to get younger players in. The plan is that we will contend in 2014, and plan on being strong contenders in 2015.

Given the failure of the previous teams dating back to 2008, and the horrific collapse of 2011, and poor showing in 2012. I think fans can understand the need to move on, and would rather hear about a clear plan than just hoping things will get better.

I agree completely. But that thinking seems far too rational for this ownership group. Smart and sexy generally aren't synonymous, especially when it comes to the MLB trade deadline.