Ian.. it depends on which Jaso you get.. the .224/.298/.354 from 2011.. or the .276/.394/.456 one from 2012. The fact of the matter is, Morse has supplied superior numbers across the board for the last three years and is a VASTLY superior run producer than Jaso. In other words.. Consistent offensive output is what the Mariners can expect from Morse. What would have been expected from Jaso?. Pick a year... The Mariners biggest problem has been scoring runs. John Jaso wasn't part of the solution to that problem in 2012. He wasn't part of the solution by a LONG SHOT.... <shrugs>...
I think the John Jaso we saw last season is a little better than the John Jaso we'll see the next three years. Maybe a .265/.365/.400
Morse was not even a superior run creator. He was worse. 113 wRC+ as opposed to Jaso's 143.
You're also reverting to 2003 pre-Moneyball ways.
Morse 2011 was a better hitter than Jaso but I don't think he comes close to those numbers again.
So isn't that why Jaso is more valuable to us than Morse?
I think the Mariners will take a step forward and win more than 81 games. With John Jaso or with Mike Morse. I think it's the other players that bring them to that level though.
Sadly, if Morse hits .280/.315/.460 with 21 home runs, people will attribute the twam's success to him and not the improvements of Ackley, Saunders, Seager and Montero.
Yeah, thats what Im saying. But I dont dislike the deal as much as you. I just want to wait and see what happens. If Morse and Jaso both return to their 2011 form, we win the deal. Its all just up in the air.
We will have to look at the wOBAs and wRC+ of both to really see who was more valuable since they are such different players.
I dont really like it either, but thats the only way it makes sense to me.
I mean, its either Smoak at 1st and Morse in LF, or Morse at 1st and Ibanez/Casper/Bay in LF. Ill take the former because while you are getting BAD defense in left, you are getting above average D at 1st. In the latter, you get bad defense in left (good if its Wells) and below average D at 1st.
I don't think Smoak sees spring training with this team.
His time is definitely getting close to being up. Despite that, I think it'd be foolish not to give him the majority of playing time at 1B for at least the first several weeks of the regular season (figuring his ST goes decently). Shorter fence, new swing, solid September. It looks like he has more protection around him this year as well, so maybe he'll relax more and realize he doesn't have to hit 35 HRs and drive in 100 for the Ms to win games... Give him another month or two before officially pulling the plug.