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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rain City View Post
    yet in the last draft they took a C 3rd overall.... and what conclusion did i come to? i said im starting to think its possible... and it could be very possibly... who saw a jaso for morse swap coming?
    Yes, because he was BPA, and we need bats. But the fact that Jaso was moved this year should tell anyone that they want him to catch until Jaso is up. They aren't going to trade both of their catchers. I don't see the logic behind that at all
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  2. #47
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    CM... the rule of thumb as it relates to projecting the outcome of a ML baseball teams fortunes states that if you are looking for more than 2 guys having or approaching career years/improving above and beyond last year's results, then you're kidding yourself first... The rub about that rule (or guideline, if you will)..the definition of "career year" is sufficiently ubiquitous that no one knows what it definitively means.. In your comment about Ackley Saunders Montero Seager Smoak all improving.. that's a lot of things falling into place.. If the falling is done in unison, then okay, but youngsters have a tendency to fall into slumps, en masse. This is where a great field general can lead his young charges out of the wilderness.. Eric Wedge, as the field leader, will have his hands full with this group of young and talented position players.. Now, for my real opinion: it won't be this group of young'ish guya who will define the success (or failure) of the Mariners in 2013, it will be everyone on the starting pitching staff not named Felix... Particular emphasis will be on Erasmo Ramirez as he attempts to solidify his place as a realistic starting pitcher option in the Mariners rotation. With the way Wedge 'operates'.. Another SP candidate that is NOT one of the big three (Wedge has always attempted to protect his rookies/kids) could receive a shock/flash promotion: Andrew Carraway.. This could be done for one of possibly several reasons (injury, ineffectiveness and or a Carl Willis Brain Fart). Carraway has been effective at every level he's pitched at. He has an odd performance history.. When he is promoted to a new level, he tends to become less sure of his stuff and gets lit up. As he's been promoted mid season for each step, the following year, he starts at his new level like his hair is on fire. Adding to this scenario, Carraway would be an expendable arm that could permit the Mariners to have the first of the big three, Hultzen, wait until Super 2 Status is achieved before being promoted thereby giving the Mariners that extra year of control in the sixth/seventh year of MLB...

    Just a guess...

  3. #48
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    Pedro, it's not the anti-Morse homer in me. I want the guy to succeed here so I have no bias for or against him. I base everything off of the stats.

    He's on the wrong side of his prime and is not a good hitter to begin with. His skillet is one that ages very quickly and I'm worried its already begun.

    I just can't see him being as good or better as he was during his age 29 season and that's what fans are expecting from him.

  4. #49
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    In the main forum Jeffy weighted the last three years differently and it still looked pretty solid.

    Not 100% sure how you do that. Anyone know? You can't just triple the most recent year can you?
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  5. #50
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    The 2013 M's look way better on paper than the 12's. Morales and Morse + another year for the yoots ("What is a yoot?") adds up to a much more experienced and prepared lineup. There were kids at almost every position last year. Not the case now.

  6. #51
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    Well.... Morse has a lot against him, but he could repeat 2011. He'd have to overcome his age and our park.
    Super Bowl XLVIII Champs



  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seattle4Ever View Post
    Well.... Morse has a lot against him, but he could repeat 2011. He'd have to overcome his age and our park.
    It'll be interesting to see just how much the fences being moved in helps... I think it could honestly be a combined effect from both the mere change in distance, as well as a slight confidence booster for these guys that they actually have a chance to hit well at home. Its just hard to know how much the park dimensions were weighing on their confidence of success at home... and confidence if half the game.

    "Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt" - Abraham Lincoln

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iansnightout View Post
    Pedro, it's not the anti-Morse homer in me. I want the guy to succeed here so I have no bias for or against him. I base everything off of the stats.

    He's on the wrong side of his prime and is not a good hitter to begin with. His skillet is one that ages very quickly and I'm worried its already begun.

    I just can't see him being as good or better as he was during his age 29 season and that's what fans are expecting from him.
    But sometimes the stats don't do justice to the head above the shoulders. There are always outliers that make an average what it is... a combination of the best to the worst. We have no idea where Morse will fall in any average or projection someone puts out there. All I do know is that he's turning 31, and that's not a detrimental age for most batters. He struggled last year compared to 2011, but he was coming back from a back injury that held him out for two months... a back injury can be a very compromising thing in terms of body mechanics, so his recovery and performance afterwards I'm willing to forgive somewhat. Even then, it wasn't that bad. But on top of all of that I do think he has something he wants to prove here, I believe those words... both to prove to our fans and ownership, but also to prove that he deserves another contract (somewhere). Luckily its only one year that we're bound to him, so if he fails its a one and done deal, and if he succeeds we may get a qualifying offer out of him, or maybe be convinced he's worth bringing back for a couple more years. Never know, he may be the next Ibanez in that respect.

    Anyway, its rare that statistical projections actually work... they're a nice place to start, but they rarely are right on. If it was that easy, fantasy sports would be a cinch, right? Unfortunately, when projections are wrong they are either too high, or too low, and both could be equally possible, assuming the projection is well grounded. But I think its fair to say that Morse should be as good as 2012, or better, albeit with more games played.

    "Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt" - Abraham Lincoln

  9. #54
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    i like this year's lineup more than last year but this time last year i had hope that smoak and ackley were going to break out, i thought montero would be a little better, i even thought figgy had a chance to be acceptable and didnt think ryan and olivo would be as bad as they were....none of that turned out but at least seager and saunders proved themselfs.

    im not sure morse will be better at the plate than jaso, but i do like our lineup more with morales, and a core of montero, saunders, seager and ackley who are all at a point in their career with they project improvement.

    my problem with this team is we are terrible defensively and lack of speed.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rain City View Post
    i like this year's lineup more than last year but this time last year i had hope that smoak and ackley were going to break out, i thought montero would be a little better, i even thought figgy had a chance to be acceptable and didnt think ryan and olivo would be as bad as they were....none of that turned out but at least seager and saunders proved themselfs.

    im not sure morse will be better at the plate than jaso, but i do like our lineup more with morales, and a core of montero, saunders, seager and ackley who are all at a point in their career with they project improvement.

    my problem with this team is we are terrible defensively and lack of speed.
    I don't see that at all. Just cause Morse is on Lf doesn't mean we are all the sudden terrible defensivly. We were the best defensive team last year. One bad defender isn't going to take us down that far.

    Did you forget about Ryan, Ackley, Guti, Saunders, and Seager who are all average or better?
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by CamraMaan View Post
    It'll be interesting to see just how much the fences being moved in helps... I think it could honestly be a combined effect from both the mere change in distance, as well as a slight confidence booster for these guys that they actually have a chance to hit well at home. Its just hard to know how much the park dimensions were weighing on their confidence of success at home... and confidence if half the game.
    I'll have to post some research/ stats I compiled a while ago. I'm convinced that the park will be even more run surprising than in the past. HR/FB% will go up, sure, but all other hits will harder to come by. It's the high air pressure, low temperature and low humidity of Seattle that absolutely kills ball flight. Shrinking the OF only provides less area to hit the ball.

    BABIP for a single player often is used a measure of 'luck.' High or low BABIP usually means that a player can expect to regress or improve based on averages, but if you look at BABIP of entire teams, home and away, it becomes obvious that something else is at work in Safeco other than the OF walls being too far away. Balls hit in play fall in for hits way below average. Shrinking the OF will only hurt BABIP more.

  12. #57
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    I expect the team to move Smoak for pitching or bench help.

    vs. RHP
    L Ackley 2B
    L Seager 3B
    R Morse DH
    S Morales 1B
    R Montero C
    L Saunders LF
    R Gutierrez CF
    R Wells RF
    R Ryan SS

    Bench
    Ibanez DH
    Andino INF
    Catcher ?
    INF/OF util ?


    vs. LHP
    L Ackley 2B
    R Gutierrez CF
    R Montero DH
    R Morse 1B
    L Saunders LF
    R Wells RF
    L Seager 3B
    ? Catcher C
    R Ryan SS

    Ibanez DH
    Andino INF
    Morales 1B
    INF/OF util ?

    Not sure we could convince Bourn to come to Seattle for only 1 year, but if we could, he would be an asset that would help us and could be shopped in July. Since it already seems likely Morales and Morse will be shopped, why not go after other guys for only 1 year?

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by baseball_is_lif View Post
    I expect the team to move Smoak for pitching or bench help.

    vs. RHP
    L Ackley 2B
    L Seager 3B
    R Morse DH
    S Morales 1B
    R Montero C
    L Saunders LF
    R Gutierrez CF
    R Wells RF
    R Ryan SS

    Bench
    Ibanez DH
    Andino INF
    Catcher ?
    INF/OF util ?


    vs. LHP
    L Ackley 2B
    R Gutierrez CF
    R Montero DH
    R Morse 1B
    L Saunders LF
    R Wells RF
    L Seager 3B
    ? Catcher C
    R Ryan SS

    Ibanez DH
    Andino INF
    Morales 1B
    INF/OF util ?

    Not sure we could convince Bourn to come to Seattle for only 1 year, but if we could, he would be an asset that would help us and could be shopped in July. Since it already seems likely Morales and Morse will be shopped, why not go after other guys for only 1 year?
    Cause it would cost out pick.

    Also dont see Morales being platooned and Wells playing everyday
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    I don't see that at all. Just cause Morse is on Lf doesn't mean we are all the sudden terrible defensivly. We were the best defensive team last year. One bad defender isn't going to take us down that far.

    Did you forget about Ryan, Ackley, Guti, Saunders, and Seager who are all average or better?
    Where'd you hear that? Fangraphs had them 5th. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

  15. #60
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    I thought that we were 1.

    Even so, we arent gonna be terrible this year because we have one or two bad defenders at the 2 least important defensive positions
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


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