Mariners Acquire Morse - Three-Team Deal

[jej]

Actually, using AVG its really good. Especially if/when you account for the fact that Morse can hit against both LH and RH pitchers. If you average out both '11 and '12 for Morse he comes out with a .296/.343/.515/.858 stat line. Now, this gets complicated, but if you take the ratio of ABs against RH to LH pitchers for Morse (ratio of 3.12:1) over those two years, and assume Jaso was forced to play "full time" (not necessarily full time, but not platooned) and assume the same ratio with his stats over his last two years, if you extrapolate the stats you would get a line of .238/.344/.387/.731...... let's put those next to each other.

.296/.343/.515/.858
.238/.344/.387/.731

This is why we are getting a better player... because Morse can play all the time and theoretically give you those numbers. If Jaso could play all the time he would give you inferior numbers... which is why we benefited from trading a platoon DH for an every day MOTO bat.



Yes!!! The theory works, lots of OBP guys score lots of runs, but it doesn't work if you don't have enough guys who can keep the wheels turning... get on base when the pressure is on, get a clutch hit when it really matters. We didn't have those guys, more or less aside from Jaso, and he couldn't even play every day! The OBP Machine theory only works if you have a lineup full of guys who can perform! Who can get the job done! Morse is one of those guys!

Yeah, and now we dont have OB guys either

[CamraMaan]

Yeah, and now we dont have OB guys either

But we really only had one last year. The theory does not work if you only have one. The next best guy last year was Seager with a .316 OBP. Everyone else was worse. If you have a team with only one good OBP guy, then he had better be followed by power hitters. The theory on lots of OBP guys scoring runs only works if you have lots of OBP guys. Otherwise your one guy gets on base and almost never crosses home plate.

[CamraMaan]

Here... as awesome as Jaso was with his .394 OBP, he crossed home plate 41 times in 361 PAs, or he scored 11.3% of the time he came to the plate. In 2012 Morse scored 73 runs in 575 PAs with a .360 OBP (which, mind you, is more than respectable), which was 12.7% of the time. Last year Morse had a .321 OBP and still scored 12.3% of the time. Point being? Our team sucked. Bad. When a guy with a .394 OBP can't even cross home plate as often as the walk-deficient Morse, you know we need upgrades. Yeah, Morse played in a more productive lineup, but he was also part of the reason that lineup was more productive.

All I've been trying to say is that its not time to call for GMZ's head... its not time to jump ship... its not really as bad as you all make it out to be. Sit back, cross you fingers, and hope that things will be as good as they honestly can be. The trade isn't nearly as bad as so many have tried to make it out to be. There are sooo many factors that really even this trade out in ways that many of you are all too willing to overlook. Trust me, I see the stats, I see the arguments you guys are making... but there are other factors that you're then overlooking, which in all reality even this thing out a lot.

[jej]

But if we are only gonna have a couple OB guys, or a couple "run driver inners", ill take the OB guys. OBP correlates to run creation better than most any other stat.

Plus, we got Morales this year to "drive in runs", and now he doesnt have as many runners to drive in.

As S4E said, Morse solo HR arent gonna do it for us.

[CamraMaan]

I know I've been posting a lot, but if you're a Moneyball person PLEASE READ THIS...


The Moneyball theory has flaws that really haven't been discussed. The primary things that Moneyball works with are pitching, defense, high OBP batters, but more importantly coveting cheap players that have an overlooked value. In this case it was the high OBP guys who can also play good defense. You get a jump on everyone else by getting these guys for cheap, and do something no one else saw coming... win by the means everyone else overlooked. It works. But it only works one time. Twice if Beane was lucky.

But why can't it work more than once, you may ask...? Now we get into market theory... supply and demand. First off, you have to realize that these kinds of guys do not grow on trees... they really aren't very common, especially the ones that are cheap and overlooked. Now, with the success of one team exploiting this overlooked means of production, you have now exposed an idea. The idea will be replicated by other GMs. The already thin pool of players to exploit now dwindles because they get spread around to various teams. Then, worst yet, the big money teams start to follow suit as well, taking away the best players who fit that mold. Yeah, Boston plays this game too. Well what happens when you have a short supply of high OBP guys who hopefully also play good/great defense, and they get spread around evenly? Well it makes it very very hard to create a team (again) who can really be a true OBP Machine.

The question is then... what next? Well, part of the Moneyball theory goes beyond OBP guys... its that fourth element: coveting cheap players that have an overlooked value. Unfortunately finding a recipe that fits this motto is easier said than done, and is usually only visible in hindsight, because it will undoubtedly be a tight-lipped theory. But the other problem is you now have not just one or two GMs thinking like this, now you have a lot of them trying to find an exploitable niche. All at the same time... lots of them very smart GMs.

Now can you see why this was an amazing phenomena that was really only destined to be the success that it was only once? Everyone knew and still knows you have to have great pitching to be a contender... no news there. Hell, it wasn't even news about the value of great defense, albeit we now know a little more about just how valuable it can be. But to build a team full of high OBP guys... that's now a distant dream. I consider .350+ to be a high OBP, and last year Beane, the Moneyball magic worker himself only had four guys above .350... in 2011 he didn't have any above that line. In 2010 he again had four up there. Point being? Even Beane is finding it hard to acquire that kind of talent and make a contender, and he's probably one of the best at trading for overlooked talent.

So what do we do now? Well, you do your best to fill up a roster with guys who will contribute in the various ways that help to win games, and hopefully use them in the best ways possible... the correct lineup order, etc. Don't give up hope just yet... we just might have to wait until a new niche market can be exploited. That, or go out and try and buy a championship.

Maybe the next niche market is for batters who consistently hit well in the "clutch" times... RISP, 2 out w/RSIP, etc.... maybe that's more valuable than we realize, and a low AVG/OBP guy who is clutch will create a more palatable offense. I mean there's room for that theory to create another "Machine" that replicates and keeps going... you just gotta get that first guy on base, or in scoring position.

[jej]

However, if you weight each of their last three seasons, the numbers support Morse.

Morse:
22 HR,
.295/.325/.508
.362 wOBA, 128 wRC+

Jaso:
7-8 HR,
.256/.358/.409
.340 wOBA, 119 wRC+

However, you do have to consider the fact that Jaso would only be facing all righties, and only righties (or at least should have been).

Taking his vs RHP numbers...
.274/.371/.442
.357 wOBA, 130 wRC+

Much closer. Now, is it fair to only look at the RHP numbers? I dont know.

This is why I keep contradicting myself and am stuck in the middle. There are valid arguments from both sides. I think the only thing to do is wait, and see how it turns out.

[CamraMaan]

However, if you weight each of their last three seasons, the numbers support Morse.

Morse:
22 HR,
.295/.325/.508
.362 wOBA, 128 wRC+

Jaso:
7-8 HR,
.256/.358/.409
.340 wOBA, 119 wRC+

However, you do have to consider the fact that Jaso would only be facing all righties, and only righties (or at least should have been).

Taking his vs RHP numbers...
.274/.371/.442
.357 wOBA, 130 wRC+

Much closer. Now, is it fair to only look at the RHP numbers? I dont know.

This is why I keep contradicting myself and am stuck in the middle. There are valid arguments from both sides. I think the only thing to do is wait, and see how it turns out.

I know the response will be that only using Jaso against RHP in a platoon allows for the other half of the equation to be filled out by someone who is equally good against LHP, therefore in the total ABs that Morse sees, Oakland will now have two guys taking all those ABs and theoretically be better overall. But that's assuming you have a player who fits a positional platoon with Jaso and can be his opposite. We kinda had that in Montero, except we don't wanna platoon Montero... we want him to be a full time player. And then, of course, there is the future arrival of Zunino. As soon as Zunino hits the scene Jaso pretty much gets phased out 100%, assuming we keep Morales and/or Morse. Of course we don't have Morse if we keep Jaso...

[MattColby]

Can't wait for zunino

[A.Mopp]

you are stuck in the middle because that exactly the type of trade this is. its a fine trade, not a great move but not a franchise killer

[jej]

you are stuck in the middle because that exactly the type of trade this is. its a fine trade, not a great move but not a franchise killer

Yeah, but with the exception of a few, everyone else is pretty strongly on one side.

[A.Mopp]

im in the middle. its not going to make us and it wont break us. maybe morse wont hit, maybe Jaso was a fluke and we sold high. just never know

[kpak76]

Looks like the odd man out? Yeah apparently. Should he be? No. I mean if you're too stupid to find a place for a bat that talented, that cheap, and under control for three more seasons on a team that is awful offensively... I mean I really have no words. It just sucks. Forget it though, just trade for some more DH's.

Even if this trade wasn't made Jaso would have been shopped at the deadline or next year when Zunino is ready. Jaso is really a ideal DH platoon player. Those really are not that hard to find. Hard to find for us however it seems.

[kpak76]

Yeah, but with the exception of a few, everyone else is pretty strongly on one side.

Which side is that, against it? We should really take a wait and see approach. This trade is not the disaster people are making it out to be.

[Spartan8585]

Which side is that, against it? We should really take a wait and see approach. This trade is not the disaster people are making it out to be.

I agree. Personally I never wanted to see Morse gone in the first place. The worst part of this trade to me is the fact we shipped Jaso to Oakland.

[Spartan8585]

And a case could of been made for a straight up trade of Jaso for Cole.