Kareem Abdul Jabber will still hold the record
Last edited by rockbottom2010; 01-16-2013 at 10:17 PM.
These are the type of stats that give stats a bad name. Volume stats don't tell you anything.
lebron definitely isn't declining right now! but probably will within the next 2 or 3 years.
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When you consider that LBJ is only 28 years old and he's already at 20 000 points? That is crazy. In 9 seasons he scored 20 000.... can he score 20 000 in the next 9? He would be 37 at that point... Perhaps he will decline the last couple of seasons, but he also doesn't need to score 20 000 to beat Kareem... only 18 500.
LBJ has a post game now to, and as a power player with a great jumper and a 3-ball, he will be able to score at a high volume without athleticism. Your power and your shooting stroke stays with you longer than your athleticism, and so he will be able to score in a high volume longer than guys like Wade or Tim Hardaway year ago, because those guys rely on athleticism to score a lot.
Coupled with that, Kareem played until he was 41. Jordon until he was 39 (with breaks). Let's assume that LBJ plays somewhere in between: 40 years old.
Assuming that LBJ plays until 40, that gives him 13 seasons to score 20 000 points and become the first player to score 40 000. To do that he would have to average slightly above 20 points per game (assuming he averages 75 games per season... I'll leave room for injury). So assuming that he manages to stay around 25 points per game until 35 (like Kobe), he would only have to average 15 points per game for the years between 35-40. I think he could do it.
LBJ CAN break Kareems record, and considering that he is all about his legacy, I have to say that he will in all likelihood put out every effort to reach that plateau, so barring injury, this is LBJ's record to take.
Remember, Karl Malone could have easily broken that record had he wanted to. He could have stayed with the Jazz and remained a 20-point scorer for what was his final season, and the following season he could have still played (there were several teams who wanted him). But Malone chose to chase a ring and sacrificed his scoring average for that goal, and then decided to hang it up even though he could have played a couple more season. If K. Malone could have gotten it done, then LBJ can certainly get it done.
Kobe will not... he didn't score enough early on and considering the fact he has already openly consider retirement and that LAL is not winning, I don't see him sticking around long enough, and he he does stay past his current contract, he is going to HAVE to take a secondary role on offense. No team is gong to want a 37 year old Kobe taking 20+ shots per game. Durant came in a couple years later than LBJ as well... so he will have to extend his playing days to break Kareems record, but I think durant can do it if he develops a post game like LBJ's.
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Can't see Kareem losing the record anytime soon.
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To be honest, I think Lebron's PPG average will start to decline when he is 33 or so.. Lebron depends on his God given athletic ability to score a lot of the time, he's usually dunking on someone or finishing an athletic and 1 in the paint.. He has improved his shot recently and that's a plus but I just think older guys need more then just athletic ability to score and when he gets into his 30s, that is going to go downhill because his body will start to wear down, won't be as fast strong or have the leaping ability.. I do, however, think his assists will go up tremendously because he will always be a good passer. He might be able to go down as the only player to have 30,000 points and 10,000 assists, but I don't think he will catch KAJ.. If Kobe signs an extension I'd say him but still, it's not looking very likely.. I picked Kobe on the poll, but after thinking about it I kinda wanna change it to nobody will catch KAJ so if mods can change that, great.
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