Mets resume trade talks for Diamondbacks' Justin Upton(post 36)

[jgthegame1982]

Not worth wheeler.. Love upton but wheeler n Harvey r the next 2 aces!!

[YoungStuna]

I don't see the point in spending that kind of money on lesser talents. If you are going to spend the money, you want to spend on a Justin Upton.

Park adjustments are generally more meaningful than looking at home/road splits. Upton is still a park adjusted 116 wRC+ and 117 OPS+ for his career through only age 24. For the past 4 years, it's a 122 wRC+ and 122 OPS+. Keep in mind too, pitchers in general tend to peak by age 24, but power hitters typically don't peak until 27-28. Upton just has a lot more upside than a guy like Niese.

Also, his power seems to be legit. I can see having concern about Arizona, especially HR numbers there. And since the issue isn't the ballpark but the atmosphere, it means little that all of his HR would have left Citi Field. But there are still things you can look at. One thing you can do is compare to other guys on his own team. At hittracker online, they categorize HR into categories based on distance, including "no doubts" and "just enoughs". Here's how the members of the Diamondbacks last season stack up:

No doubts
HR Hitter
7 Upton, Justin
5 Goldschmidt, Paul
4 Kubel, Jason
3 Hill, Aaron
2 Montero, Miguel

Just enoughs
5 Kubel, Jason
5 Goldschmidt, Paul
5 Montero, Miguel
4 Hill, Aaron
3 Young, Chris
...
1 Upton, Justin

Keep in mind this is in a year in which Kubel hit 30 and Hill hit 26, while Upton only hit 17. When he does hit them, he clearly still has the most natural power on that team, easily more than guys like Kubel or Goldschmidt. To make the point even more clear, here are the top 10 HR last year by Arizona in speed off the bat:

09/08/12 Upton, Justin 116.2
09/15/12 Upton, Justin 113.2
06/20/12 Upton, Justin 113.1
06/02/12 Goldschmidt, Paul 112.5
09/01/12 Upton, Justin 112.4
09/29/12 Upton, Justin 112.2
08/25/12 Upton, Justin 111.5
06/09/12 Montero, Miguel 111.2
05/22/12 Bell, Josh 111.1

And the first one there, at 116.2 mph, was hit at PETCO.

Once you are satisfied the raw power is there, the next thing you should be concerned about is whether he'll make enough contact to get to it. Here, he has had an issue at times in his career. But that's something that seems to be improving.

K% year
29.0% 2008
23.3% 2009
26.6% 2010
18.7% 2011
19.3% 2012

And he had a pretty dramatic 1st half/2nd half split last year, with a 22.4% rate 1st half, and only 15.8% in the 2nd half. The home/road split was less at 18.5%/19.9%.

Also, again, he's only 25. Gary Sheffield through age 24 had a 120 OPS+. Barry Bonds had a 124. Carlos Beltran had a 101. Sammy Sosa had a 94 OPS+. Bernie Williams a 100. Dave Winfield a 120. It's a very small handful of outfielders who both had 1000 PA by age 24 and were more productive than Upton (mainly Ken Griffey Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero, and of course now Giancarlo Stanton.).

To me, there seems to be a pretty good chance that Upton would be the best player on this team. And no, he won't be as good as Stanton. But I think he's still a guy we should be thankful is coming off a bit of an off year, because if he had another season where he was an MVP candidate like 2011, we wouldn't have a chance to get him.

Tremendous post, and my point all along.

[MetsFanatic19]

Great post acer

[StoicSentry]

So:

1. Kirk (?)
2. Murphy
3. Wright
4. Ike
5. Upton
6. D'Arnaud
7. Duda
8. Tejada

[GottaBelieve]

I believe in evidence based decision making.

acer convinced me.

[KingsOfQueens]

I don't think acer has ever had one post not worth reading...

You're a pleasure to have on the board man.

[Zmaster52]

I don't see the point in spending that kind of money on lesser talents. If you are going to spend the money, you want to spend on a Justin Upton.

Park adjustments are generally more meaningful than looking at home/road splits. Upton is still a park adjusted 116 wRC+ and 117 OPS+ for his career through only age 24. For the past 4 years, it's a 122 wRC+ and 122 OPS+. Keep in mind too, pitchers in general tend to peak by age 24, but power hitters typically don't peak until 27-28. Upton just has a lot more upside than a guy like Niese.

Also, his power seems to be legit. I can see having concern about Arizona, especially HR numbers there. And since the issue isn't the ballpark but the atmosphere, it means little that all of his HR would have left Citi Field. But there are still things you can look at. One thing you can do is compare to other guys on his own team. At hittracker online, they categorize HR into categories based on distance, including "no doubts" and "just enoughs". Here's how the members of the Diamondbacks last season stack up:

No doubts
HR Hitter
7 Upton, Justin
5 Goldschmidt, Paul
4 Kubel, Jason
3 Hill, Aaron
2 Montero, Miguel

Just enoughs
5 Kubel, Jason
5 Goldschmidt, Paul
5 Montero, Miguel
4 Hill, Aaron
3 Young, Chris
...
1 Upton, Justin

Keep in mind this is in a year in which Kubel hit 30 and Hill hit 26, while Upton only hit 17. When he does hit them, he clearly still has the most natural power on that team, easily more than guys like Kubel or Goldschmidt. To make the point even more clear, here are the top 10 HR last year by Arizona in speed off the bat:

09/08/12 Upton, Justin 116.2
09/15/12 Upton, Justin 113.2
06/20/12 Upton, Justin 113.1
06/02/12 Goldschmidt, Paul 112.5
09/01/12 Upton, Justin 112.4
09/29/12 Upton, Justin 112.2
08/25/12 Upton, Justin 111.5
06/09/12 Montero, Miguel 111.2
05/22/12 Bell, Josh 111.1

And the first one there, at 116.2 mph, was hit at PETCO.

Once you are satisfied the raw power is there, the next thing you should be concerned about is whether he'll make enough contact to get to it. Here, he has had an issue at times in his career. But that's something that seems to be improving.

K% year
29.0% 2008
23.3% 2009
26.6% 2010
18.7% 2011
19.3% 2012

And he had a pretty dramatic 1st half/2nd half split last year, with a 22.4% rate 1st half, and only 15.8% in the 2nd half. The home/road split was less at 18.5%/19.9%.

Also, again, he's only 25. Gary Sheffield through age 24 had a 120 OPS+. Barry Bonds had a 124. Carlos Beltran had a 101. Sammy Sosa had a 94 OPS+. Bernie Williams a 100. Dave Winfield a 120. It's a very small handful of outfielders who both had 1000 PA by age 24 and were more productive than Upton (mainly Ken Griffey Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero, and of course now Giancarlo Stanton.).

To me, there seems to be a pretty good chance that Upton would be the best player on this team. And no, he won't be as good as Stanton. But I think he's still a guy we should be thankful is coming off a bit of an off year, because if he had another season where he was an MVP candidate like 2011, we wouldn't have a chance to get him.

Tremendous post.

[Marty Mcfly]

And yet, still not worth what it will take.

[Zmaster52]

If it were up to me, I'd try to get rid of Murphy and Gee in a straightup trade for Upton

[Marty Mcfly]

If it were up to me, I'd try to get rid of Murphy and Gee in a straightup trade for Upton

They'd laugh at that.

[alexandre302]

I think the Mets will be patient and try to make the best trade for Murphy and Gee that's possible. That won't get Upton. But, it will get an improvement in the OF.

[Marty Mcfly]

I think we should move Flores and try and get an OF from somewhere. Because the current OF is laughable, really fielding an OF this bad should put us in danger of being accused of losing on purpose.

Our BEST OF is Colin Cowgill. I had never heard of this guy until the Mets got him.

[rpagz3]

I hope it's Upton that Alderson has been waiting out for, but if not he will have sign/trade for a different upgraded OF bat and I do believe some move will be made before Spring Training.

[KingsOfQueens]

I still don't see Texas making a move for him. I think it's either us or Atlanta. In all likelihood the latter.

[KingsnQueens7]

^ I hope you are right. It would blow him going to Atlanta...