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  1. #1
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    Current Lineup: Is it Enough?

    Here's one snapshot of what the team could accomplish if they made no further moves. It assumes Nieuwenhuis and Duda start to reach their potential and their defense is adequate, that Cowgill is a pleasant surprise, that Buck hits like he did as a 2010 All Star [23 85 .280] and not the .196 hitter he was last year and that the other four starters have healthy, normal seasons. A lot of IFs but if this is done there would be enough runs scored to rate in the middle of the pack. Just enough power and little speed. Adding back Hairston takes away a big risk if Buck stays below the Mendoza Line. I also want our CF platoon [Nieuwenhuis/Cowgill/Valdespin] to provide a leadoff hitter with some speed so we stop this one base at a time sluggish offense. Murphy and Tejada would alternate between #2 and #7 or 8th spot depending on the opposing pitcher/our leadoff hitter. I still would prefer a proven outfielder in case Dude and Kirk and the other kids are not all we hope for.

    Player AB HR RBI .BA SB
    Nieuwenhuis-L 500 15 60 .275 12
    Tejada-R 600 1 45 .285 6
    Wright-R 650 30 105 .315 22
    Davis-L 600 35 100 .280 2
    Buck-R 400 15 60 .245 1
    Duda-L 525 23 80 .265 4
    Cowgill-R 350 6 25 .270 15
    Murphy-L 525 12 65 .285 8
    Sub-Total: 4150 132 540 .280 65

    Valdespin-L 300 10 35 .275 12
    Turner-R 200 5 20 .260 4
    Baxter-L 150 3 15 .275 3
    Hicks-R 150 1 10 .255 2
    Recker-R 100 1 10 .240 0
    Sub-Total: 900 20 90 .260 21

    D'Anaud-R 225 8 25 .280 1 [June]
    Quintinilla-R 100 0 5 .250 2
    Brown-R 75 1 5 .260 2
    Rookies 150 3 15 .260 3
    Pitchers 325 1 20 .210 1
    Sub-Total: 850 13 70 .240 6

    Total: 5900 165 710 .270 92
    Bob
    Met fan since 1969

  2. #2
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    Current Lineup: Is it Enough?

    710 runs sounds like wishful thinking with this bunch.

  3. #3
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    Yeah i would think more in the 620-630 range and that might be being generous considering how bad their OF will be offensively.

    Remember they only made it to 650 last year because of how hot they were with RISP and how patient they were in the 1st half of the season.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-06-2013 at 05:18 PM.

  4. #4
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    No
    Go Grab My Belt

  5. #5
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    A lot of these numbers seem very optimistic.

    Captain "K" will not hit .275. I see .260/.330 with 30 2B and 15 HR.

    I don't see Wright as a .300+ BA 30 HR guy anymore. I think he'll top around 25 now.

    Until Ike hits LHP, there is no chance he hits .280. I see .265/.350 with 35 HR.

    If Buck gets that many AB, he might be able to attain those mumbers, maybe a lower BA though.

    I think Duda is pretty spot on, but is tht offense good enough to make up for his anemic defense? Nope.

    Way too much power for Murphy imo. He has not shown that since 2009.

    Baxter should get more AB than Valdespin and Cowgill.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    A lot of these numbers seem very optimistic.

    Captain "K" will not hit .275. I see .260/.330 with 30 2B and 15 HR.

    Way too much power for Murphy imo. He has not shown that since 2009.

    Baxter should get more AB than Valdespin and Cowgill.
    Hard to tell what K will give us if he has a chance to start...he began 2012 hitting well then hit a wall...did the opposing pitchers find a flaw he couldn't correct? Anyone know the cause for his sudden dropoff at mid-season?

    Murphy hit 12 homers in a season and that was at Citi Field...why has he stopped hitting for power? 40 doubles are great but double figures in homers changes how pitchers will pitch to him and outfielders will play him if he pops a bunch over the wall.

    Baxter to me is a fifth outfielder type---and he will always have the fans' loyalty with that awesome catch he made in Santana's no hitter---but Cowgill was obtained as he seems to be a right-handed version of Nieuwenhuis [can play all three OF spots but has no plus plus skills and is a platooner or starter on a 'second division'---which meant weaker half---team].
    Bob
    Met fan since 1969

  7. #7
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    Enough for fourth place? Probably. Most of those numbers are unrealistic individually and are preposterous in the aggregate.

  8. #8
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    Kirk doesn't hit lefties well, and he strikes out a lot. That will eat his average. Even .260 is optimistic.

    Murphy is doubles hitter with little HR pop.

    Baxter is going to be the starting outfielder as of now. He will probably platoon with Andrew Brown.

  9. #9
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    This lineup is good enough to win 64 games. Take into consideration you lost Dickey's production out of the starting rotation. It don't matter what any of our hitters do if we have three starters with ERA's close to 5.00 or above. That is also assuming Santana pitches well or for a full season.
    Last edited by SILVER SEAVER; 01-06-2013 at 07:57 PM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by SILVER SEAVER View Post
    This lineup is good enough to win 64 games. Take into consideration you lost Dickey's production out of the starting rotation. It don't matter what any of our hitters do if we have three starters with ERA's close to 5.00 or above.
    I don't see 3 starters having a 5 ERA.

    Hefner's advanced stats suggested he was hurt by a very bad defense behind.

    A mid 3's FIP is very good.

    As for Niese, Gee, Harvey, Santana and eventually Wheeler i am sure this pitching staff could hold up quite well next year. Santana being the X factor of course but i just hope he holds up till July so they can deal him.

    The problem will be potentially their bullpen and of course the lack of offense.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by SILVER SEAVER View Post
    This lineup is good enough to win 64 games. Take into consideration you lost Dickey's production out of the starting rotation. It don't matter what any of our hitters do if we have three starters with ERA's close to 5.00 or above. That is also assuming Santana pitches well or for a full season.
    Good. First or second overall pick for the 2013 MLB draft.

  12. #12
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    That lineup is pathetic lol, has 65 wins written all over it.

  13. #13
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    I am not banking on career years for these guys. So, an unequivocal "no".
    "There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. A high powered mutant of some kind, never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die."

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdg515 View Post
    Here's one snapshot of what the team could accomplish if they made no further moves. It assumes Nieuwenhuis and Duda start to reach their potential and their defense is adequate, that Cowgill is a pleasant surprise, that Buck hits like he did as a 2010 All Star [23 85 .280] and not the .196 hitter he was last year and that the other four starters have healthy, normal seasons. A lot of IFs but if this is done there would be enough runs scored to rate in the middle of the pack. Just enough power and little speed. Adding back Hairston takes away a big risk if Buck stays below the Mendoza Line. I also want our CF platoon [Nieuwenhuis/Cowgill/Valdespin] to provide a leadoff hitter with some speed so we stop this one base at a time sluggish offense. Murphy and Tejada would alternate between #2 and #7 or 8th spot depending on the opposing pitcher/our leadoff hitter. I still would prefer a proven outfielder in case Dude and Kirk and the other kids are not all we hope for.

    Player AB HR RBI .BA SB
    Nieuwenhuis-L 500 15 60 .275 12
    Tejada-R 600 1 45 .285 6
    Wright-R 650 30 105 .315 22
    Davis-L 600 35 100 .280 2
    Buck-R 400 15 60 .245 1
    Duda-L 525 23 80 .265 4
    Cowgill-R 350 6 25 .270 15
    Murphy-L 525 12 65 .285 8
    Sub-Total: 4150 132 540 .280 65

    Valdespin-L 300 10 35 .275 12
    Turner-R 200 5 20 .260 4
    Baxter-L 150 3 15 .275 3
    Hicks-R 150 1 10 .255 2
    Recker-R 100 1 10 .240 0
    Sub-Total: 900 20 90 .260 21

    D'Anaud-R 225 8 25 .280 1 [June]
    Quintinilla-R 100 0 5 .250 2
    Brown-R 75 1 5 .260 2
    Rookies 150 3 15 .260 3
    Pitchers 325 1 20 .210 1
    Sub-Total: 850 13 70 .240 6

    Total: 5900 165 710 .270 92
    A little too optimistic with those numbers. Our pitchers are collectively going to hit .210? lol

  15. #15
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    If everything falls into place, it might be enough.

    ...to win 80 games.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

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