2013 PSD Mets Forum #3 Mets Prospect

[Sick Of It All]

He played in 2 extremely hitter friendly environments the last 2 years. The Eastern League and PCL are very hitter friendly and the numbers posted there should be taken with a grain of salt period.

When he was hitting in the SAL and FSL where both environments are extremely pitching friendly he did not do as good.

...hence why I think he is more of a guy that will hit somewhere between what he did in those different places.

...and yes the fact that their are not many good offensive catchers in baseball is what makes him valuable as a guy who may post an OPS around .775-.825.

[Sick Of It All]

I think some guys are overvaluing or better yet expecting way more than this kid has the potential to be.

BTW I would take those OPS's I posted and run with it and be very happy if he did that.

[macattack]

i took wheeler #1 TDA #2 so syndergaard is my #3. harvey is an ML pitcher. i know i know harvey is on this list and sick has said to include him as a prospect but i can't. sorry. for for me syndergaard is easily #3.

[GottaBelieve]

I think he will be a guy that posts a line around .260-.280/.330-.350/.430-.450 who hits 15-25 homers.

If he does that and plays a consistently good catcher the Mets got a great deal.

Getting above to well above average offensive production from a key defensive position is such a bonus to any team. That's why Beltran gave the Mets a chance to be so good for that stretch of time from 2006-2011. Didn't always work out for the team, but his presence was such a luxury.

Get consistent .270/.350/.450 with about 20 HR per year from your catcher and you're in great position.

[YoungStuna]

He played in 2 extremely hitter friendly environments the last 2 years. The Eastern League and PCL are very hitter friendly and the numbers posted there should be taken with a grain of salt period.

When he was hitting in the SAL and FSL where both environments are extremely pitching friendly he did not do as good.

...hence why I think he is more of a guy that will hit somewhere between what he did in those different places.

...and yes the fact that their are not many good offensive catchers in baseball is what makes him valuable as a guy who may post an OPS around .775-.825.

d'Arnaud was Eastern League MVP at age 22. The average age is 24 years old. He was 4th in the league in OPS. The Eastern League is not that hitter's friendly, it's a neutral league. The league OPS is .724.

In the SAL, he was 20 years old and had 38 2B and 13 HR.

In the FSL, he was still 21 years old, but he had back issues and it looked like it hurt his performance, but BA actually had him jumping in the rankings all the way up to #36 from #81.

Scouts have always liked his hitting ability and his athleticism behind the plate.

He looks like a guy that could hit 25 HR with a .275+ BA a season, and at catcher that's very valuable.

[Claymation]

He played in 2 extremely hitter friendly environments the last 2 years. The Eastern League and PCL are very hitter friendly and the numbers posted there should be taken with a grain of salt period.

When he was hitting in the SAL and FSL where both environments are extremely pitching friendly he did not do as good.

...hence why I think he is more of a guy that will hit somewhere between what he did in those different places.

...and yes the fact that their are not many good offensive catchers in baseball is what makes him valuable as a guy who may post an OPS around .775-.825.

I saw d'Arnaud few times that year when he played in Lakewood. He hit the ball hard, hit a seed off of Perez when he was playing in Hickory. That year he struggled with off speed, but hit anybody's best FB offering. Obviously that changed as he advanced as he adjusted to off speed pitching.

I also saw Gose that year, I wasn't impressed.

[Sick Of It All]

...and again those 2 places are very hitter friendly and anything done there should be taken with a grain of salt period.

It does not mean that he does not have the talents to be very good, it means that odds are he will not hit that good in the majors.

[YoungStuna]

...and again those 2 places are very hitter friendly and anything done there should be taken with a grain of salt period.

It does not mean that he does not have the talents to be very good, it means that odds are he will not hit that good in the majors.

Age matters too though, because as of now he would likely be a .750 OPS type of catcher in the big leagues based on his AAA numbers. But he's young enough to improve and get better than that.

No one said he would be a .950 OPS kind of bat either. But I believe his ceiling is higher than a .800 OPS catcher. More like .850-.875 seems more realistic for ceiling, and catchers have been known to develop offense later.

[KingsnQueens7]

I'm praying for TDA. We need this kid to succeed!

[Sick Of It All]

Age matters too though, because as of now he would likely be a .750 OPS type of catcher in the big leagues based on his AAA numbers. But he's young enough to improve and get better than that.

No one said he would be a .950 OPS kind of bat either. But I believe his ceiling is higher than a .800 OPS catcher. More like .850-.875 seems more realistic for ceiling, and catchers have been known to develop offense later.

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.850-.875 is super star type production from a catcher dude, that is not being realistic by any means.

Last year only 3 guys had over .850 OPS as catchers and they were Molina, Posey and Mauer and those 3 guys walk at very good rates, something d'Arnaud has not done yet since his BB% have been around 6%-7.5%.

...and as I mention I think he will improve on that and be more like a .775-.825 OPS type guy. If you think he will settle around .850-.875 then you are expecting him to put elite type numbers consistently and he K's more and walks less than those 3 guys I mention who were able to do that last year.

Also he is 24 now is not like there is much more he can improved that makes me think that he will somehow improve 100-125 OPS points in the majors if as of right now he would be a .750 guy.

Like I said I would take the .775-.825 OPS and very freaking happy with it because while they may not be elite type numbers he would still be top 5-10 in baseball.

[YoungStuna]

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.850-.875 is super star type production from a catcher dude, that is not being realistic by any means.

Last year only 3 guys had over .850 OPS as catchers and they were Molina, Posey and Mauer and those 3 guys walk at very good rates, something d'Arnaud has not done yet since his BB% have been around 6%-7.5%.

...and as I mention I think he will improve on that and be more like a .775-.825 OPS type guy. If you think he will settle around .850-.875 then you are expecting him to put elite type numbers consistently and he K's more and walks less than those 3 guys I mention who were able to do that last year.

Also he is 24 now is not like there is much more he can improved that makes me think that he will somehow improve 100-125 OPS points in the majors if as of right now he would be a .750 guy.

Like I said I would take the .775-.825 OPS and very freaking happy with it because while they may not be elite type numbers he would still be top 5-10 in baseball.

I didn't say that was his realistic outcome, I said that's his absolute ceiling. If he reaches his ceiling, he's in the top tier of catchers offensively. He's not a hacker by any means, so his walk rates are respectable.

d'Arnaud can be a star if everything breaks right for him, he has that upside.

[Sick Of It All]

Let me put it this way,if he had that kind of potential, then there is zero doubt in my head that he would be the Mets #1 prospect and one of the top 3 prospects if not the best prospect in baseball considering the position he plays.

[YoungStuna]

Let me put it this way,if he had that kind of potential, then there is zero doubt in my head that he would be the Mets #1 prospect and one of the top 3 prospects if not the best prospect in baseball considering the position he plays.

When we first got him I had him as our top prospect, but there are some doubts with the injuries and Wheeler/Harvey both look like studs.

I think there is the least doubt with Harvey, which is why I have him #1.(even though he's not a prospect)

Wheeler and d'Arnaud are still a toss up to me, because it seems like people really like Wheeler, so it could go either way.

[YoungStuna]

Keith Law before the season had d'Arnaud #6 behind Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Matt Moore, Manny Machado, and Shelby Miller saying that he's growing into his power which projects to be a 25-30 HR type bat at catcher.

He was #5 on his mid-season list as well.

I believe Toby Hyde has d'Arnaud as our #1 prospect, as well as John Sickels, so there are clear d'Arnaud-supporters.

[5+7=DYNASTY!!!]

I agree with Sick 100%. I think TDA is going to be a very good catcher in this league put I don't see the perennial all star stats coming from this guy. I could definitely see him making a couple all star teams but I see him maxing out as a top 5-10 catcher, not top 5. TDA put up fantastic numbers the past two seasons but they were both in hitter friendly leagues. Not too mention I'm never a big fan of big strikeout rates in the minor leagues. I see him maxing out at a Miguel Montero rate of production (however with a lower OBP).

On the other hand, I could easily see Noah developing into a Matt Cain type pitcher, which is why I have him higher on my list. Noah, IMO, is ahead of where Wheeler was at a similar age and right on par with Matt Cain.