New Year, New 2013 Projections

[papipapsmanny]

Okay I always try and wait for it to be the new year to open this thread, and I will just put mine out there.

Remember these projections assume health (and we know how that goes)

Lineup: (I'll assume Napoli signs)

1. Jacoby Ellsbury: .294 AVG/ .351 OBP/ 21 Homeruns and 81 RBI with 44 SBs

2. Dustin Pedroia: .308 AVG/ .379 OBP/ 18 HRs and 71 RBI with 20 SBs

3. David Ortiz: .286 AVG/ .377 OBP/ 28 HRs and 103 RBI

4. Mike Napoli: .262 AVG/ .358 OBP/ 34 HRs and 98 RBI

5. Will Middlebrooks: .276 AVG/ .324 OBP/ 26 HRs and 81 RBI

6. Shane Victorino: .272 AVG/ .339 OBP/ 15 HRs and 64 RBI with 27 SBs

7. Saltalamacchia: .240 AVG/ .300 OBP/ 21 HRs and 50 RBI

8. Johnny Gomes: .251 AVG/ .342 OBP/ 18 HRs and 41 RBI

9. Stephen Drew: .261 AVG/ .340 OBP/ 13 HRs and 39 RBI

**Bonus** (If Salty starts)

Ryan Lavarnway: .274 AVG/ .335 OBP/ 12 HRs and 29 RBI (In limited playing time)

Ryan Kalish: .256 AVG/ .320 OBP/ 9 HRs and 27 RBI and 12 SBs in limited playing time

Rotation:

Jon Lester: 18-8 with a 3.31 ERA, and a 3.37 FIP

Clay Buchholz: 15-9 with a 4.18 ERA and a 4.21 FIP

Ryan Dempster: 14-7 with a 4.05 ERA and a 3.91 FIP

Felix Doubront: 16-8 with a 3.71 ERA and a 3.52 FIP

John Lackey: 13-8 with a 4.31 ERA and a 4.15 FIP


I won't do the bullpen (never do)

So yea I expect a big rebound year for Ellsbury in his Walk year. I expect Napoli to have mad power in Fenway. I think Drew will be productive here, and I think Doubront is going to emerge, along with Lester getting back to his old form.

[BGeer091]

I pretty much agree with all of this. However I think WMB puts up better numbers

[ruckus16969]

If the rotation is that good I will be very very happy

[Nomar]

76 wins for the starters. Can't force myself to believe this will happen but their stats aren't ridiculously optimistic I wouldn't say.

[Bo Sox Fan]

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury: .308 AVG/ .349 OBP/ 24 HR

2. RF Shane Victorino: .264 AVG/ .336 OBP/ 13 HR

3. 2B Dustin Pedroia: .299 AVG/ .378 OBP/ 15 HR

4. DH David Ortiz: .289 AVG/ .384 OBP/ 26 HR

5. 1B Mike Napoli: - unsigned

6. 3B Will Middlebrooks: .275 AVG/ .329 OBP/ 27 HR

7. LF Johny Gomes: .264 AVG/ .336 OBP/ 17 HR
-. LF Ryan Kalish: .242 ABG/ .298 OBP/ 5 HR

8. C Ryan Lavarnway: .259 AVG/ .319 OBP/ 12 HR

9. Stephen Drew: .263 AVG/ .328 OBP/ 8 HR

ish...

I have no idea what to expect from the pitching staff.

[Bo Sox Fan]

Sidenote,

I wouldn't be surprised if Ellsbury is batting 3rd by June/July.

[RedSoxtober]

Okay I always try and wait for it to be the new year to open this thread, and I will just put mine out there.

Remember these projections assume health (and we know how that goes)

Good job. I'm pretty much on board with what you've got.

My quibbles:

• Given that Salty has produced nearly identical lines the last two years as the primary C it seems a stretch to expect .240/.300; .232/.288 is a target for him.
• Seems likely that a catcher is moved and Lavarnway gets more than minimal time. The thinking in signing Ross and with only one more year of Tuck under contract is that Lavarnway will spend a lot of time on the roster being mentored by both.
• Kalish will get more than limited time. He's the other half of the Gomes platoon.
• 76 wins and a .600+ WPct from the SP seems unlikely even if they rebound. Doubront and Dempster seem most likely to finish .500 with a 12-14 wins.

[BostonSports96]

I put my projections in intervals of 5 and 10.

This also assumes each player doesn't get injured during the year and that we finally sign Napoli:

1. Ellsbury .305 avg .340 OBP 15 HRs 70 RBIs 40 steals
2. Victorino .270 avg .330 OBP 10 HRs 50 RBIs 30 steals
3. Pedroia .310 avg .370 OBP 15-20 HRs 90 RBIs 15 steals
4. Ortiz .295 avg .380 OBP 30 HRs 100 RBIs
5. Middlebrooks .275 avg .320 OBP 25-30 HRs 90 RBIs
6. Napoli .245 avg .350 OBP 25-30 HRs 75 RBIs
7. Gomes (split time) .260 avg .360 OBP 15-20 HRs 50 RBIs
Kalish (split time) .240 avg .300 OBP 5-10 HRs 25 RBIs
8. Saltalamacchia (if he's not traded) .220 avg .280 OBP 20 HRs 50 RBIs
Lavarnway .235 avg .300 OBP 10-15 HRs 30 RBIs
9. Drew .255 avg .330 OBP 10-15 HRs 40 RBIs

Bench

Ross .250 avg .320 OBP 5-10 HRs 25 RBIs (depends on playing time)
Ciriaco .275 avg .290 OBP 0 HRs 15 RBIs 15 steals

Rotation

Lester 15-8 3.60 ERA
Buccholz 14-9 3.90 ERA
Dempster 13-10 4.15 ERA
Lackey 12-12 4.75 ERA
Doubront 12-10 4.35 ERA

[Nomar]

I pretty much agree with all of this. However I think WMB puts up better numbers

I cant see him hitting over .275 without a big improvement in K:BB

[thebrianscal]

like the offense numbers, some slightly high goals, but nothing unattainable. Good job with that. As much as I would love to see those numbers from the pitching staff i think that might be expecting a lot. I can see the a couple guys breaking out and meeting your expectation but no way all 5 will finish the year looking that good.

[SirHizz]

1. Ellsbury .310 avg .351 obp 15 hr 65 rbi 34 steals
2. Pedroia .291 avg .375 obp 19 hr 70 rbi 21 steals
3. Ortiz .279 avg .385 obp 25 hr 109 rbi
4. Napoli .248 avg .347 obp 33 hr 93 rbi
5. WMB .269 avg .321 obp 28 hr 78 rbi
6. Salty .227 avg .289 obp 21 hr 55 rbi
7. Gomes (depends on playing time vsRHP) .246 avg .328 obp 18 hrs 51 rbi
8. Victorino .277 avg .338 obp 11 hr 48 rbi 28 steals
9. Drew .268 avg .338 obp 14 hrs 49 rbis

Rotation

Lester 15-8 3.70 ERA
Buccholz 13-9 4.11 ERA
Dempster 10-12 4.89 ERA
Lackey 13-11 5.21 ERA
Doubront 14-9 4.03 ERA

[Nomar]

I still think Salty is getting dealt. If I make projections Lavarnway will be my starter

[KingPapelbon]

1. Ellsbury .310 avg .351 obp 15 hr 65 rbi 34 steals
2. Pedroia .291 avg .375 obp 19 hr 70 rbi 21 steals
3. Ortiz .279 avg .385 obp 25 hr 109 rbi
4. Napoli .248 avg .347 obp 33 hr 93 rbi
5. WMB .269 avg .321 obp 28 hr 78 rbi
6. Salty .227 avg .289 obp 21 hr 55 rbi
7. Gomes (depends on playing time vsRHP) .246 avg .328 obp 18 hrs 51 rbi
8. Victorino .277 avg .338 obp 11 hr 48 rbi 28 steals
9. Drew .268 avg .338 obp 14 hrs 49 rbis

Rotation

Lester 15-8 3.70 ERA
Buccholz 13-9 4.11 ERA
Dempster 10-12 4.89 ERA
Lackey 13-11 5.21 ERA
Doubront 14-9 4.03 ERA

These are more realistic than the OP. A bit optimistic, in my opinion.

[KingPapelbon]

My projections may seem a bit "out there", they always are. To me, predicting is the art of predicting the unpredictable.

Lineup:

1. Ellsbury (CF) - .312 BA, .364 OBP, 17 HR, 79 RBI, 39 SB.
2. Victorino (RF) - .276 BA, .332 OBP, 10 HR, 63 RBI, 24 SB.
3. Pedroia (2B) - .353 BA, .407 OBP, 18 HR, 93 RBI, 17 SB.
4. Ortiz (DH) - .247 BA, .341 OBP, 15 HR, 53 RBI.
5. Napoli (1B) - .263 BA, .356 OBP, 29 HR, 96 RBI.
6. Middlebrooks (3B) - .282 BA, .338 OBP, 36 HR, 112 RBI, 9 SB.
7. Gomes (LF) - .257 BA, .330 OBP, 16 HR, 58 RBI.
8. Lavarnway (C) - .271 BA, .319 OBP, 9 HR, 48 RBI.
9. Drew (SS) - .275 BA, .328 OBP, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 5 SB.

Bench:

Ross (C) - .239 BA, .315 OBP, 10 HR, 32 RBI.
Kalish (OF) - .303 BA, .355 OBP, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 13 SB.
Nava (OF) - .273 BA, .380 OBP, 3 HR, 25 RBI.
Ciriaco (INF) - .259 BA, .288 OBP, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 8 SB.

Rotation:

Jon Lester - 33 GS, 17-10, 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 215.2 IP, 56/212 (BB/K)
Clay Buccholz - 24 GS, 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 160 IP, 48/132
Ryan Dempster - 32 GS, 12-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 203 IP, 66/170
John Lackey - 33 GS, 13-10, 4.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 194.2 IP, 56/133
Felix Doubront - 30 GS, 14-8, 3.77 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 183 IP, 63/179
Stephen Wright - 8 GS, 3-4, 4.95 ERA, 1.52 WHIP.

Bullpen:

Joel Hanrahan - 34/41 SV - 2.97 ERA, 67.2 IP, 31/75
Andrew Bailey - 3.41 ERA, 55.1 IP, 17/50
Daniel Bard - 1.78 ERA, 71 IP, 25/82
Craig Breslow - 3.91 ERA, 61 IP, 24/57
Alfredo Aceves - 5.25 ERA, 41 IP, 17/38
Andrew Miller - 3.54 ERA, 76.1 IP, 35/77
Koji Uehara - 2.23 ERA, 56 IP, 9/51
Junichi Tazawa - 4/5 SV - 2.10 ERA, 59.2 IP, 19/71