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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Anyone you think is under or over projected?
    I hate to nitpick like that, because that's just begging for confirmation bias. They've got an objective system and I'm just eyeballing.

    But obviously, I think 2.3 for Brett Jackson is way out of line. Projection systems don't always do well with guys who have extreme flaws in one area and extreme strengths in others.

    The five starters they put in the depth chart only add up to 113 starts. Give the other 49 to Baker and Wood and you aren't in too bad of shape in the rotation. Maybe even Vizcaino gets a few.

  2. #32
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    I only had an issue with the innings of the main three starters. A little low for each I thought.

    I also don't buy Jackson as a 2 win CF, but it's a good ad for him.

  3. #33
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    I wouldn't be surprised at all if Jackson put up 2 wins if he played everyday. They are still giving him a 34% K rate and a .230 average, so its not like that projection is based on him making huge strides there. His offensive numbers look very reasonable. His decent glove at a prime position is what will carry a lot of his WAR.

  4. #34
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    Dream finish to the offseason

    Sign Michael Bourn
    Trade Soriano to the Phillies
    Trade for Chase Headley

    To me it makes sense to go for a strong defense this season. Pitching is largely a crapshoot from season to season, and if it's a good/lucky year for the Cubs, it could be a playoff team. If not, the future is still solid and they can continue to retool.

  5. #35
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    if we did sign bourn do we lose a pick? atl did make a qualifying off to him yes?

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by bulldog312 View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised at all if Jackson put up 2 wins if he played everyday. They are still giving him a 34% K rate and a .230 average, so its not like that projection is based on him making huge strides there. His offensive numbers look very reasonable. His decent glove at a prime position is what will carry a lot of his WAR.
    I would be surprised if it was as a Cub.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsFanBudMan74 View Post
    if we did sign bourn do we lose a pick? atl did make a qualifying off to him yes?
    Yes. The Cubs would lose the 2nd round pick plus it's money allotment.
    Screw sabermetics.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubsFanBudMan74 View Post
    if we did sign bourn do we lose a pick? atl did make a qualifying off to him yes?
    Yes, it would be the 2nd round pick. The latest from Epstein is that the Cubs really value that pick since it's very hard now to replace that amateur talent in the new CBA. It seems to contradict what Hoyer said earlier about the Cubs still looking at adding a free agent center fielder (because Bourn is the only good one available).

    Quote Originally Posted by KyleJRM View Post
    I hate to nitpick like that, because that's just begging for confirmation bias. They've got an objective system and I'm just eyeballing.

    But obviously, I think 2.3 for Brett Jackson is way out of line. Projection systems don't always do well with guys who have extreme flaws in one area and extreme strengths in others.

    The five starters they put in the depth chart only add up to 113 starts. Give the other 49 to Baker and Wood and you aren't in too bad of shape in the rotation. Maybe even Vizcaino gets a few.
    It's projecting that WAR based on a full season of starting everyday for Jackson, too, so 2.3 is out of question even if he has the averages the system is projecting him for.

    ZiPS also projects the main 5 pitchers to all have an ERA under 4 which would surprise me.
    Last edited by terencem; 01-04-2013 at 04:43 PM.

  9. #39
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    thnx guys...yeah bourn isnt wortg all that contract wise and losing money slot...would only do that for an elite player

  10. #40
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    That's the latest from Epstein?

    Because Epstein just said yesterday that there are certainly free-agents worth giving up first-rounders for, so I assume that covers second-rounders as well.

  11. #41
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    is there a deadline to losing a pick if u sign a player that was givin a qualifying offer? does same rules apply if the players are still available in spring training?

  12. #42
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    He views the seconded rounder as a supplemental first rounder, that has value. Certain players with the right contract are worth giving up a pick for. Since the Cubs have made an offer to Bourn he would seem to be one of those players at the right price.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by KyleJRM View Post
    That's the latest from Epstein?

    Because Epstein just said yesterday that there are certainly free-agents worth giving up first-rounders for, so I assume that covers second-rounders as well.
    He did say something roughly like Terence said, which is why I love quote days. Interpret it as you wish!

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    He did say something roughly like Terence said, which is why I love quote days. Interpret it as you wish!
    He did say "you can't be dogmatic" about it but he seemed to give more weight to the 2nd round pick than Hoyer did (because you're getting a player who'd be a supplementary round pick in previous drafts, not a 2nd round talent). Maybe he just went into more depth which makes it come off as though he was saying the Cubs have more value than some people understood from Hoyer.

  15. #45
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    Were they asked the same question? Epstein dropped a “get them when they’re available” line in there so I'm not sure he was putting any extra value on the pick so much as explaining how the new CBA might affect amateur acquisitions.

    I haven't heard either interview.

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