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  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by A New Era View Post
    How much do we have left in IFA money? $700k?
    Around $700,000, yes, but Diaz won't count against the budget. Teams can offer him whatever they like.


    I heard you were looking for me.

  2. #152
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    Any chance Chipper Jones rethinks his retirement and tests the free agent market?
    I'd love to get him even at 40 and playing 120 games a year. He and Bourne would actually make the lineup somewhat interesting

  3. #153
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    As for how much we have left, we spent 1.5 on JCP, .700k on DeLaRosa, and 100k on a guy and 80k on another. Can't remember their names. So, we've got 520k, plus an overage of 145k, for a total of 665k left. Supposedly, we were about to sign a pitcher that had been dropped from KC for 450k, but he was killed at a bar the night before he was supposed to sign.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by ReJo View Post
    Any chance Chipper Jones rethinks his retirement and tests the free agent market?
    I'd love to get him even at 40 and playing 120 games a year. He and Bourne would actually make the lineup somewhat interesting
    0% chance he plays another year. He's said time and time again it's over, regardless if he plays well or not.

  5. #155
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    My problem with Diaz is simple: If he's not an elite guy, why would he sign with the Cubs? Assuming the money is the same or close anyway. If he's a legit SS, he's looking at us as the org with probably the deepest crop of SS in all of baseball and not nearly as good of a chance as he'd get with other orgs.

  6. #156
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    I'm still skeptical on JoeyB. Along with Darvish, he's also missed on a few draft picks (obviously got more right than wrong, but I don't think it's that hard when you know how much we are emphasizing it). I feel like he was off on Cespedes as well, though I may be making that up. I'd be lenient with him on some of the stuff if he didn't post things as absolute fact when he could word it like it's a rumor.

    Not that I particularly care for him to stop posting...the more rumors the better.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by rcal10 View Post
    Lake was just an example of who I would give back with Shark. Basically a 6 thru 12 prospect in the Cubs system. If it has to be Baez, then I agree with you the Cubs should get a decent young pitcher back. And truthfully if it is going to be Shark and Baez, I would rather make it even bigger and get Headley plus a pitching prospect from SD.
    Yeah I would rather have Headley, just because its a tougher position to fill

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by davell View Post
    I liked Brett's breakdown on a Bourn contract at BN. As far as losing the 2nd rounder goes, I kind of suspect that if Soriano, DeJesus, or Garza is dealt, we'll get some IFza budget money as part of the return, to help make up for it. Which would therefore give us the most of any team.
    Bourn is worth the 2nd rounder if he signs a one-year deal. You could then trade him at the deadline and likely get a much better return than what said 2nd rounder would turn into. With that being said, I can't see Bourn ending up being this year's E-Jax and that he'll sign for a one-year deal. He's a speedy CF and with every year that passes in his career, he digresses in speed. Boras knows it and so does every FO. Upton got just over $15 per year over 5 years, so you know Boras is aiming higher than that. Bourn could end up getting screwed this offseason.

  9. #159
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    Bourn is worth a 2nd rounder. at the right contract... a max of 4/60 for me
    Headly isnt going anywhere stop that dream.
    Diaz Please...

    Edit: im a Vikes fan.... Webb

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tryptamine View Post
    That's just not even remotely likely. You do realize he's been worth 18.5 to 28.9M each of the last 4 years? The kind of surplus value you're asking for doesn't ever happen in free agency.
    First, let’s calculate the value of the second round pick. That pick is projected to be worth about 3.5 WAR according to the FanGraphs piece, which gives it a value of about $19.25 million (using a win value of $5.5 million).

    Next, let’s calculate Bourn’s projected value over the next four or five years. Bourn is projected to be worth about 4.2 to 4.3 WAR in 2013, but he’s coming off a career year (6.4), so we’ll give him a slight bump to 4.5 in 2013. From there, players tend to decline about 0.5 WAR per year once they’ve entered their decline phase (this is a really rough gauge, folks), so we can project that he’s worth 4.5 wins in 2013, 4 wins in 2014, 3.5 wins in 2015, 3.0 wins in 2016, and 2.5 wins in 2017.

    Again, using that $5.5 million per win figure, that makes Bourn worth $24.75 million in 2013, $22 million in 2014, $19.25 million in 2015, $16.5 million in 2016, and $13.75 million in 2017. That totals $96.25 million over five years (and you start to see why Bourn reportedly sought a five year, $100 million contract at the start of the Winter). That’s probably on the generous
    So, how does the value of the lost pick impact what Bourn could expect to receive from a team like the Cubs?

    If Bourn is worth $96.25 million on a five-year deal (or $82.5 million on a four-year deal), that means he should expect a contract from a team giving up the number 40/41/42 draft pick (“worth” $19.25 million) no higher than five years and $77 million or four years and $63.25 million.

    This exercise makes me feel pretty good about my from-the-hip cap on what I’d like to see the Cubs offer (if they’re going to make an offer at all, something about which I’m relatively ambivalent). I said I’d want the Cubs to go no higher than four years and $50 to $60 million, and now I’ll stand by that. I wouldn’t want the Cubs to sign Bourn unless they were getting some surplus value on paper, and a four-year deal in that range would do it.

    And they might be able to pull it off – remember, the Cubs’ lost pick (number 40/41/42) is worth a whole lot less than a pick in the first round, which, for a team with an unprotected first round pick, thus “subtracts” a more sizable chunk from the theoretical contract that team should be willing to offer Bourn.

    This is all theoretical. Teams have a great many factors to consider when piecing together a roster. It isn’t all just dollars, or worse, flimsy projections of value.

  11. #161
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    lol
    first of all you plagiarized that from brett...
    2nd it doesnt support ur 4/40 for bourn...
    3rdly i dont know why i ever respond to you.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZamboniCub View Post
    lol
    first of all you plagiarized that from brett...
    2nd it doesnt support ur 4/40 for bourn...
    3rdly i dont know why i ever respond to you.
    yep I sure did, its called copy and paste. It does support that and Do you want me to bring you over some tissue. What are you the internet police I didnt know I couldnt do that. Dont respond! you cant hurt my feeling.lmao

  13. #163
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    If you pay almost $20 million for a player who gives you 3.5 WAR in his career, you didn't do very well on that deal. Low-WAR players should give you a way better $/WAR rate than good players.

  14. #164
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    So did we disagree or not? You said 4/40 at first, but now it's 4/50 to 4/60? If you're willing to do 4/60 then we're on exactly the same page. 4/40 on the other hand was completely unrealistic.

  15. #165
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    Thoughts are the shadows of our feelings - always darker, emptier and simpler.
    -Friedrich Nietzsche

    notice how i credit the original author...
    i thought you could relate to the empty and simple part regarding thought.

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