2013 Reds: What are your concerns?

[Vottomatic19]

Well that's the thing. I love having Chapman as the Closer and I won't complain if that ultimately ends up being his role on the team. However, if Chapman can be the type of starter I think the Reds are hoping for then their rotation over the next 4 years will be sick. That assumes the Reds sign Bailey and Latos to extension, which I believe they will. Now that Chapman has some real experience as a big league pitcher I just want to see if he can start. If not, put him in the pen and all is good.

and if he does start...how many innings will they let him go?

[stsparks72]

According to Jocketty they will have some sort of plan in place to not end up with a situation like Washington had with Strasburg. That means he will get some days off somewhere or pitch out of the bullpen for part of the season to keep his innings down. I have a feeling it depends a lot upon how Leake performs in spring training.

[Freel for prez]

Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey. You cant pass that up if its there, you have to AT LEAST find out if he can be an ace.

[jlohm1]

I'm afraid he'll have early success as a starter, and then after a month or so, start to wear down or get hurt.

[IowaAJ]

I think Aroldis will be fine as a Starter remember he was a starting pitcher for a long time before being moved to the closer role. I really don't have many concerns except will Cozart and Frazier go through a little slump like most second year players do if that happens our offense might not be where it needs to be.

[Vottomatic19]

I think Aroldis will be fine as a Starter remember he was a starting pitcher for a long time before being moved to the closer role. I really don't have many concerns except will Cozart and Frazier go through a little slump like most second year players do if that happens our offense might not be where it needs to be.

I really hope Chapman will be fine as a starter. Yes, he was dominant in Cuba as a starter, but how much MLB talent was he facing? Also, that was in 2009...for the most part since then he struggled in MiLB as Starter and was moved to the Pen, and has almost exclusively been in the pen since 2010...minus last spring, where, yes...he dominated....but there isn't much to be said about ST stats...if he pans out as a starter...great...but I just don't have a good feeling about it...and with Frazier and Cozart...I think Cozart will actually improve, since he will likely be in the 7 spot and not at the top of the lineup...with the pressure of getting on base...and I really think that Frazier is just scratching the surface...and in all reality...we are talking about the backend of the lineup...which is what 'great' teams do....isn't it great to worry about that part for once and not the 1-5 for once! LOL

[jlohm1]

MLB is wayyyy different than Cuba baseball.

[tgreeson1980]

Hey guys, longtime Reds fan, first time posting in this particular forum. Concerns are:

1. Health of starting pitching. Last year was an aberration, in which we only needed one start outside of the starting five, and that was only because of a re-scheduled game. Bronson is getting older, we saw the concerns with Cueto in the postseason, and well, Homer is a head case. Also, everyone knows we will see an innings limit with the Missile.

2. Not so much about Mesoraco as it is on how Dusty decides to platoon the catchers. Hani is one of the most underrated catchers in the league, and is worthy of 140+ starts a year. But if Meso progresses, what will Dusty do.

3. As has been iterated by others, what kind of regression will we see out of Frazier? A full season as THE guy is a much different animal than feeling no pressure "filling in" for a HOF (Rolen).

4. Health of bullpen, namely Massett (whom I love, and am probably in the minority on it). If Massett can return to 2010 form, I still love our bullpen. If he can't figure it out, we put stress on the others to perform.

5. Health of Votto. If healthy, the triumvirate of BP JV JB should put up career numbers, given Choo's ability to get on base consistently.

6. Can we get Heisey more playing time, lol...? (I am an admitted Heisey lover, and hate seeing him get a spot start once every two weeks, and here people complain about why he can't hit)

Can't wait for the season to start, here is hoping for an epic year

[Jeffy25]

As things stand what are your concerns for the 2013 Reds (barring injuries)? List them in order or randomly.

I will list mine in order. Keep in mind that I am not concerning myself with the possibility of injuries (injuries in themselves are always a big concern).

#1 - Will Devin Mesoraco be able to establish himself offensively? Dusty likes to start his backup catcher 2 out of 5 days, so improvement is needed. That said, will the pitching staff become more comfortable with Mez behind the plate? I think he does good job calling a game, but clearly the staff prefers Hanigan.

#2 - How will Todd Frazier handle playing 3rd base for an entire season? It's a lot of wear and tear playing everyday, I hope that doesn't effect his hitting.

#3 - I think matching what the starting pitching staff did last year will be tough, but will they be able to even come close?

#4 - Will we miss watching Drew Stubbs glide across centerfield every time a ball bounces past Choo?

#5 - If Chapman starts how will that effect the bullpen? There is still plenty of talent in there, but will Broxton be the hammer the Reds need?

As a fairly even minded Cards fan.

If you are interested in my thoughts....I'll share.

1. I think you'll be fine. Hanigan is a very good defensive catcher, but you got to give time to Mes. I think as long as it's somewhat limited, he'll show how good he can be and how talented he is. I bet he outhits Hanigan this year (slash line wise).

2. As long as he gets some days off, he'll be fine. Give him a day off every two weeks, pull him for a late inning defensive sub here and there. Give him rest. Adequate rest will breed success. Defensively, I think he'll be better than expected.

3. I think you are bound to have some regression. Arroyo isn't a very good pitcher, but Latos is better than he was last year. Cueto is a hard guy to predict because statistically he shouldn't be as good as he has been. But at some point you have to say he is better than his periphs and is actually that good. I think you'll see a top 10, possibly top 5 rotation.

you will not have the health you had last year though, someone is bound to get hurt.

4. I think it won't be a big deal. Choo won't be great defensively, but your outfield is somewhat tiny, and he'll be fine. He'll make all the routine plays and sure there will be a some extra base hits that get past him that Stubbs might have caught, but he'll make up for those hits with his bat and patient plate approach. If it is an issue, Bruce can play center if you need him to. I think it'll be a non-issue. Similar to Berkman defensively with the Cards in 11. While he cost us runs, he more than made up for those lost runs offensively. I think Choo will do the same.

5. Again, I think it'll be fine. You have enough depth that you'll be fine.

I do see some regression pitching. Overall. I think you'll be around a 3.75 team ERA. Which is fine, good enough for 90 wins. Offensively having Votto all year will secure the 90 wins.

You will be a good team.

Too bad you still have Dusty Baker Maybe Jocketty will continue to give him such good players that he can't mess it up.

[jlohm1]

Why do you say Arroyo isn't a very good pitcher? he's not far behind Greinke. Greinke's WHIP is 1.20 and Arroyo's is 1.21. Arroyo's an excellent 2nd or 3rd starter, and he pitches in a hitters ballpark.

I'd honestly be shocked if Mesoraco outhits Hanigan. but yet, I'm also not a fan of Mesoraco. it's one of those times when I hope I'm wrong.

[Jeffy25]

Why do you say Arroyo isn't a very good pitcher? he's not far behind Greinke. Greinke's WHIP is 1.20 and Arroyo's is 1.21. Arroyo's an excellent 2nd or 3rd starter, and he pitches in a hitters ballpark.

I'd honestly be shocked if Mesoraco outhits Hanigan. but yet, I'm also not a fan of Mesoraco. it's one of those times when I hope I'm wrong.

Did you just compare a guy with a career 2.30 K/BB to a guy with a career 3.51 K/BB?


Just to put that in context

Greinke is 29th best out of guys with 400 innings since 2000, Arroyo is 139th (out of 235 pitchers)

Last three seasons?

Greinke has a 4.02 (4th), Arroyo has a 2.38 (63rd) out of 92 pitchers


They are nothing alike, not anywhere close and Arroyo is really quite bad, but he can eat innings.

He is closer to Clayton Richard than he is to Zach Greinke.

[stsparks72]

Arroyo is really quite bad

That is a ridiculous quote.

[Jeffy25]

That is a ridiculous quote.

Would you like me to prove it?

It's not difficult

Over the last three seasons alone, out of guys that have 350 innings in that time span (113 pitchers)
Arroyo is 104th in fWAR (2.9)

103rd in K/9 with a 5.22

112th with a 4.79 FIP (112 out of 113)

112th with a 1.47 HR/9 (112 out of 113)

Only Nick Blackburn has been worse and he isn't starting any longer.

He is really quite awful, there is no denying how bad he has been and rather how lucky



You have the best hitter in baseball and are a good team, I'm not just picking on Arroyo, but it's who you guys highlighted out of my statement....a long statement that included a lot of compliments of the Reds. So I'm not just picking on him or something, it's who you guys chose to discuss.

I still can't believe Arroyo was compared to Greinke.

[stsparks72]

Due to an illness Arroyo had a bad season in 2011, plus you are cherry picking stats. Arroyo is not a strikeout pitcher and since he throws a lot of innings in a small ballpark he will likely give up a good share of HR's. I'm not saying Arroyo is great, but he is a solid pitcher that does a good job. I'm not going to go back and forth with stats, I'm fine with you thinking he is a bad pitcher. However, since 2005 Arroyo has performed well with innings pitched, wins, and quality starts.

Bottom line, I know what I see with me eyes and they tell me Arroyo does a good job for a #3 or #4 guy. BTW, since 1997 Chris Carpenter has 0 Saves which places him dead last in MLB over a 16 year period. Get my point?

[Jeffy25]

Due to an illness Arroyo had a bad season in 2011, plus you are cherry picking stats. Arroyo is not a strikeout pitcher and since he throws a lot of innings in a small ballpark he will likely give up a good share of HR's. I'm not saying Arroyo is great, but he is a solid pitcher that does a good job. I'm not going to go back and forth with stats, I'm fine with you thinking he is a bad pitcher. However, since 2005 Arroyo has performed well with innings pitched, wins, and quality starts.

Bottom line, I know what I see with me eyes and they tell me Arroyo does a good job for a #3 or #4 guy. BTW, since 1997 Chris Carpenter has 0 Saves which places him dead last in MLB over a 16 year period. Get my point?

So K's are irrelevant, but team wins and saves for a starter are relevant?

You can't dismiss statistics just because you don't like them. I'm not cherry picking anything. He isn't a good pitcher. Other guys (including Reds) pitch in small ball parks and do not have the issues that Arroyo has. He isn't a good pitcher, and any statistic that the pitcher is responsible for will clearly show you that.

It's not difficult to prove that Arroyo is a bad pitcher, just like it isn't difficult to prove that Votto is a great hitter. There is more than enough information to tell you how bad Arroyo is. And pardon me for not trusting your eyes, they can in fact be rather deceptive unless you are literally able to watch every pitcher in baseball every single start with a photographic memory and an unbiased opinion. Which I will take the assumption you do not considering your tactical response to my information was Chris Carpenter's lack of saves in exactly zero save opportunities.