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  1. #1
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    Fannies in the Seats: Will the Mets Be Competitive?

    The question is whether or not the Wilpons will be spending any money this off-season to compete in 2013. My point in previous posts was if they invested $4M in a fifth starter and/or a veteran LOOGY it is paid for itself if an extra 1000 fans show up every game...if putting a competitive team on the field this year adds 5000 per game its another $20M in revenue. Go from 2.1 million attendees back to 3 million...figuring each attendee is worth at least $50 apiece minimum in tickets and concessions and $45M gets added to the pot. You want to pay off loans and Madoff paybacks? You do it by putting a decent product on the field....and if you stay in the race through Labor Day you make a profit.

    With no Dickey to draw fans every fifth day the team must stay above .500 for most of the season in order to get fans to show up until TDA and Wheeler debut. Will Harvey and Niese be so impressive that they draw a bigger crowd on days they start? Can't count on that. The current roster plus the Bay payout [50%?] is at about $70M...enough to add Hairston [$7.5M], Marcum [4.0?], a LOOGY or two [3.0] and still keep payroll well under $90M. What are we? Kansas City? Pittsburgh? I for one will show up less often if the team starts the season with an outfield of Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Cowgill and Baxter and Familia and Mejia as our only fifth starter candidates. And I know I speak for many fans out there. Opinions?
    Bob
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdg515 View Post
    The question is whether or not the Wilpons will be spending any money this off-season to compete in 2013. My point in previous posts was if they invested $4M in a fifth starter and/or a veteran LOOGY it is paid for itself if an extra 1000 fans show up every game...if putting a competitive team on the field this year adds 5000 per game its another $20M in revenue. Go from 2.1 million attendees back to 3 million...figuring each attendee is worth at least $50 apiece minimum in tickets and concessions and $45M gets added to the pot. You want to pay off loans and Madoff paybacks? You do it by putting a decent product on the field....and if you stay in the race through Labor Day you make a profit.

    With no Dickey to draw fans every fifth day the team must stay above .500 for most of the season in order to get fans to show up until TDA and Wheeler debut. Will Harvey and Niese be so impressive that they draw a bigger crowd on days they start? Can't count on that. The current roster plus the Bay payout [50%?] is at about $70M...enough to add Hairston [$7.5M], Marcum [4.0?], a LOOGY or two [3.0] and still keep payroll well under $90M. What are we? Kansas City? Pittsburgh? I for one will show up less often if the team starts the season with an outfield of Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Cowgill and Baxter and Familia and Mejia as our only fifth starter candidates. And I know I speak for many fans out there. Opinions?
    The 25-man roster is probably already closer to $90 million than $70 million.

    I don't know if anyone has figured out how much the Mets save on Bay in 2013. I think Alderson stated it wasn't much. You also have to add $5.5 million to the 2013 equation for Santana's buyout. All in all, it's safe to project that the Mets have +/- $70 million committed to just 6 players in 2013, and the remaining 19 could eat up close to $20 million.

    Taking on Buck's $6.5 million contract had significant impact since it added over $5 million at the catcher's position. If you had to choose between a two-year deal for a fifth starter or Scott Hairston, which would you choose? I guess I'd go with Hairston.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    The 25-man roster is probably already closer to $90 million than $70 million.

    I don't know if anyone has figured out how much the Mets save on Bay in 2013. I think Alderson stated it wasn't much. You also have to add $5.5 million to the 2013 equation for Santana's buyout. All in all, it's safe to project that the Mets have +/- $70 million committed to just 6 players in 2013, and the remaining 19 could eat up close to $20 million.

    Taking on Buck's $6.5 million contract had significant impact since it added over $5 million at the catcher's position. If you had to choose between a two-year deal for a fifth starter or Scott Hairston, which would you choose? I guess I'd go with Hairston.
    Hairston all the way.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    The 25-man roster is probably already closer to $90 million than $70 million.

    I don't know if anyone has figured out how much the Mets save on Bay in 2013. I think Alderson stated it wasn't much. You also have to add $5.5 million to the 2013 equation for Santana's buyout. All in all, it's safe to project that the Mets have +/- $70 million committed to just 6 players in 2013, and the remaining 19 could eat up close to $20 million.

    Taking on Buck's $6.5 million contract had significant impact since it added over $5 million at the catcher's position. If you had to choose between a two-year deal for a fifth starter or Scott Hairston, which would you choose? I guess I'd go with Hairston.
    Here are my figures [the only ones making over $2M in bold]...correct them if they're wrong but they add up to $70M:

    OF: Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Cowgill and Baxter each earn around the minimum so that's $2M....add in Bay buyout of $9M = $11M
    IF: Wright $8M, Davis, Murphy, Turner and Tejada about $750K each = $3M, Valdespin and Hicks the minimum = $1M...total $12M
    C: Buck $6M, Recker, TDA max another $1M = $7.5M
    SP: Santana $24M, Niese 5M, Gee, Harvey, Mejia and Familia about the minimum = $2M max....total of $31M
    RP: Francisco 6.5, Parnell, Edgin, Carson, and Laffey is another $2M, and split minor league contracts for fringe AAAA pitchers another $1M...total of $9.5M

    Add the five totals up and you're at $71M even for 24 players plus the bubble guys...am I forgetting somebody? And next year, with Santana [Buck and Francisco removed and Wright's full $16M restored is a wash] that's another $24M to spend minus salary arb cases.
    Bob
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  5. #5
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    Davis, Murphy, Turner and Tejada about $750K each = $3M
    Davis and Murphy are arbitration eligible. They are not making 750K.

    Parnell is also arbitration eligible.

    Santana makes 25.5 and has a buyout of 5.5.


    ďNinety percent Iíll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent Iíll probably waste.Ē
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  6. #6
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    Niese is making 3 million.


    ďNinety percent Iíll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent Iíll probably waste.Ē
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  7. #7
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    The 2012 payroll was $94 million.

    Bay is only getting $6 million of the total $21 million he would have been owed over the full 2013 season. That's a $15 million decrease in actual money paid out to the payroll in 2013.

    They are saving $3 million in deferred 2013 money from David Wright.

    That's $18 million right there. Even with the additional increases in arbitration pay raises I don't see how the present payroll is anywhere close to $90 million.
    Go Grab My Belt

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    Also, with Pelfrey, Dickey, Rauch, Torres and Hairston all presently off the payroll, that's another $16 million off the payroll - just from those guys.

    Add that to the $18 million from savings in Wright and Bay's contract this year and that's $34 million less in committment than they had in 2012, which brings the total roster committment now closer to $60 million. Tack on Buck, and you're at about $66-70 million.

    Throw in the remainder of the roster, the arbitration eligible pay increases, roster fillers, another 1-2 free agents making in the low to mid single digit million dollar range to complete the roster, and you probably get close to $80 million.
    Last edited by GottaBelieve; 01-02-2013 at 06:16 PM.
    Go Grab My Belt

  9. #9
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    Isn't the Mets payroll going to be like 30 million after this season with the contracts coming off the books?

    And if so, why all the stress? Relax. It is easy to see what Alderson is doing. He's done it twice. Both times he took his team to the World Series. Anybody who tries to take there frustration out on Sandy, is just a hater and doesn't know where else to channel there anger.

    Step 1: Rebuild the farm

    Step 2: Formulate a solid core

    Step 3: Sign players to get you over that final hump. With the payroll as low as it will be, this will happen. Book it.

    Basically the way I sum up Alderson's way of working.
    FC Bayern Munchen

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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdg515 View Post
    The question is whether or not the Wilpons will be spending any money this off-season to compete in 2013. My point in previous posts was if they invested $4M in a fifth starter and/or a veteran LOOGY it is paid for itself if an extra 1000 fans show up every game...if putting a competitive team on the field this year adds 5000 per game its another $20M in revenue. Go from 2.1 million attendees back to 3 million...figuring each attendee is worth at least $50 apiece minimum in tickets and concessions and $45M gets added to the pot. You want to pay off loans and Madoff paybacks? You do it by putting a decent product on the field....and if you stay in the race through Labor Day you make a profit.

    With no Dickey to draw fans every fifth day the team must stay above .500 for most of the season in order to get fans to show up until TDA and Wheeler debut. Will Harvey and Niese be so impressive that they draw a bigger crowd on days they start? Can't count on that. The current roster plus the Bay payout [50%?] is at about $70M...enough to add Hairston [$7.5M], Marcum [4.0?], a LOOGY or two [3.0] and still keep payroll well under $90M. What are we? Kansas City? Pittsburgh? I for one will show up less often if the team starts the season with an outfield of Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Cowgill and Baxter and Familia and Mejia as our only fifth starter candidates. And I know I speak for many fans out there. Opinions?
    Another one of these type of threads? Isn't it obvious we won't be spending money this offseason? And no we won't be competing in 2013. We all know this and the sooner you accept it, the better. Let's just enjoy watching some of our young guys develop and hope Wright and Ike have good seasons.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by bklynny67 View Post
    Another one of these type of threads? Isn't it obvious we won't be spending money this offseason? And no we won't be competing in 2013. We all know this and the sooner you accept it, the better. Let's just enjoy watching some of our young guys develop and hope Wright and Ike have good seasons.
    If we don't demand some investment in this team then why bother watching at all? Why don't we tune in to watch the debuts of Wheeler and TDA and skip the other 160 and tune in again in 2014? Some investment is needed now in order to instill some sense of optimism...remember the late '70s? Shea was a ghost town....is that what you are advocating for?
    Bob
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by rdg515 View Post
    The question is whether or not the Wilpons will be spending any money this off-season to compete in 2013. My point in previous posts was if they invested $4M in a fifth starter and/or a veteran LOOGY it is paid for itself if an extra 1000 fans show up every game...if putting a competitive team on the field this year adds 5000 per game its another $20M in revenue. Go from 2.1 million attendees back to 3 million...figuring each attendee is worth at least $50 apiece minimum in tickets and concessions and $45M gets added to the pot. You want to pay off loans and Madoff paybacks? You do it by putting a decent product on the field....and if you stay in the race through Labor Day you make a profit.

    With no Dickey to draw fans every fifth day the team must stay above .500 for most of the season in order to get fans to show up until TDA and Wheeler debut. Will Harvey and Niese be so impressive that they draw a bigger crowd on days they start? Can't count on that. The current roster plus the Bay payout [50%?] is at about $70M...enough to add Hairston [$7.5M], Marcum [4.0?], a LOOGY or two [3.0] and still keep payroll well under $90M. What are we? Kansas City? Pittsburgh? I for one will show up less often if the team starts the season with an outfield of Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Cowgill and Baxter and Familia and Mejia as our only fifth starter candidates. And I know I speak for many fans out there. Opinions?

    No, we won't be competitive.

    This is going to be a team of underachievers, AAAA players, guys trying to establish themselves and the Las Vegas (whatever their name is) team shuttling back and forth to the bigs.

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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by yankees90. View Post
    Isn't the Mets payroll going to be like 30 million after this season with the contracts coming off the books?

    And if so, why all the stress? Relax. It is easy to see what Alderson is doing. He's done it twice. Both times he took his team to the World Series. Anybody who tries to take there frustration out on Sandy, is just a hater and doesn't know where else to channel there anger.

    Step 1: Rebuild the farm

    Step 2: Formulate a solid core

    Step 3: Sign players to get you over that final hump. With the payroll as low as it will be, this will happen. Book it.

    Basically the way I sum up Alderson's way of working.
    I am surprised that Paulie allowed you to use a picture of his girl friend as your signature.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paulie6986 View Post
    No, we won't be competitive.

    This is going to be a team of underachievers, AAAA players, guys trying to establish themselves and the Las Vegas (whatever their name is) team shuttling back and forth to the bigs.
    That was very nice of you to allow Yankees90 to use a picture of your girl friend as his signature piece. I always knew that you were a class guy !!!

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by yankees90. View Post
    Isn't the Mets payroll going to be like 30 million after this season with the contracts coming off the books?
    Quote Originally Posted by yankees90. View Post

    And if so, why all the stress? Relax. It is easy to see what Alderson is doing. He's done it twice. Both times he took his team to the World Series. Anybody who tries to take there frustration out on Sandy, is just a hater and doesn't know where else to channel there anger.

    Step 1: Rebuild the farm

    Step 2: Formulate a solid core

    Step 3: Sign players to get you over that final hump. With the payroll as low as it will be, this will happen. Book it.

    Basically the way I sum up Alderson's way of working.

    >>>>It's @ $33M, but that's with TWO players paid for. You're dreaming if you think there's a lot of spending on the way.

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