How the 2013 Mets make the playoffs

[SILVER SEAVER]

Last year the A's fit that exact description, same with the O's, and both got bounced very quickly.

Well if the A's didn't have to face Verlander in a do or die game they may very well have advanced. For winning the AL West and having the second best record in the AL they got rewarded by having to open in Detroit which for the life of me can't see how that's an advantage with Verlander looming in a game 5.

[StoicSentry]

If the stats worked perfectly, all we would be proving is that baseball doesn't involve luck. Think about what you're saying. This is the game where a 30-foot dribbler off the end of the bat means as much as a 250-foot rope into CF. And where a batter gets punished equally for striking out and for getting robbed by a diving catch.

Again, I'm not saying the game is a crapshoot. The post on the previous page ranking WAR vs. actual rankings should show that in-depth statistics are not useless.

It's not useless, it just needs to be part of a more robust analysis. The only problem I have is with the devotees who use it exclusively.

[Marty Mcfly]

And those three aces like you said had nothing to do with sabermetrics. They acted like in the movie that Bradford and Rincon were the catalysts behind their run.

I've seen that movie did they ever mention three aces, a good closer, Chavez, Jason Giambi and Tejada?

[SILVER SEAVER]

Last year the A's fit that exact description, same with the O's, and both got bounced very quickly.

The A's got bounced because of what I said in the previous post and old man Ibanez's AB's of his life took the life out of the O's. Johnson blew like two games in that series alone.

[SJ5382]

It's not useless, it just needs to be part of a more robust analysis. The only problem I have is with the devotees who use it exclusively.

We can agree on that. For instance, designing a team with a massive offensive WAR with an atrocious pitching staff isn't very smart.

[SILVER SEAVER]

I've seen that movie did they ever mention three aces, a good closer, Chavez, Jason Giambi and Tejada?

Well I heard Brad Pitt talk to Huddy & Chavy as he was walking through the clubhouse, Giambi went to the Yankees so that was the thing with acquiring Justice, Jeremy Giambi and Hatteberg to recreate him and I saw Tejada on a quick glimpse when Pitt was watching the team run onto the field for the game on the TV but they never mentioned that they were loaded with talent. They acted like the team was full of misfits and hasbeens and won 90+ which is so far from the truth. The lost Giambi who ended up sucking with the Yankees anyway and Isringhausen which was not the end of the world IMO.

[acerimusdux]

Another point, even if you could predict perfectly how players would perform, could you tell how many games the team will win? Not really. Even a .500 team, a team with the talent to win exactly 81 games, will win 89 games 2.9% of the time.

This is based on something called the binomial distribution. It's the same idea as flipping a coin 162 times. If you flipped it a million times, it's a pretty good bet you would get heads very nearly half the time. But flip it 162 times, and you aren't always going to get exactly 81 heads. There's a 2.9% chance you would get 89 or more heads.

What this means though, is that even if you find the smartest stat guy in the world, who can tell you exactly what every player is worth, and not only that he's psychic enough to tell you exactly what they will be worth next year, he still can't tell you exactly how many games you will win. You can still end up in the playoffs with an average team.

The bad news here is that if this is really only a 73 win team talent wise, a .450 expected winning percentage, you still only have less than a half percent chance of winning at least 88 games with that. So the binomial distribution (i.e. random luck) will only get us so far. To increase those odds, the players do actually need to play better than expected.

[SJ5382]

I've seen that movie did they ever mention three aces, a good closer, Chavez, Jason Giambi and Tejada?

Well, they didn't have Jason Giambi. And the good closer they had was Isringhausen, who was also gone.

But other than that, this is one thing we can agree on. The movie entirely ignored the fact that the team revolved around a "Big 3" that was uncovered by that stubborn, old scouting staff. I would be livid if I were those guys.

[StoicSentry]

We can agree on that. For instance, designing a team with a massive offensive WAR with an atrocious pitching staff isn't very smart.

Even there. Disregard pitching for a second.

I can design an offense with a tremendous WAR that sucks.

Make them all righty batters, so that righty pitchers will mow them down at an increased rate.

Make them all guys that struggle against the curve, so teams know which pen arms to throw at them.

Give a few of them character problems: lack of hustle, on/off the field issues, etc.

Make them all pull hitters with a stadium that doesn't support righty pull hitters.

Make some of them reluctant to accept batting instruction.

Make them injury prone.

Two of them are guys that don't want to share the spotlight.

Lots of other things you can add to that list.

Not that you don't already know this.

I'm just saying.

[rpagz3]

With:

- A solid year from the rotation of Santana, Niese, Harvey, Gee, and Wheeler/5th Starter

- A solid year from the bullpen

... Honestly just solid consistent play from the pitching staff this team can compete.

I dont wanna hear that the bullpen sucks or Harvey, Santana, Gee, Wheeler are question marks because yes they might be, but they also have the talent to be solid enough to compete.

Sure it's a 50/50 shot this pitching staff can be compete, and I'm optimistic that if they perform up to par this team can win 80+ games, which to me would be competing and make huge strides toward 2013 and beyong

[Marty Mcfly]

Well, they didn't have Jason Giambi. And the good closer they had was Isringhausen, who was also gone.

But other than that, this is one thing we can agree on. The movie entirely ignored the fact that the team revolved around a "Big 3" that was uncovered by that stubborn, old scouting staff. I would be livid if I were those guys.

I recall the A's being good with with all the guys I mentioned together, a quick check and yes they all played at least one season round that time all together.

Yeah, I would be lived too, the jacket got a career out of those three guys too. Now currently out of baseball.

[SJ5382]

I recall the A's being good with with all the guys I mentioned together, a quick check and yes they all played at least one season round that time all together.

Yeah, I would be lived too, the jacket got a career out of those three guys too. Now currently out of baseball.

The entire basis of the movie and book was the 2002 season. The season in which they had just lost Damon, Izzy, and Jason Giambi. So obviously, they didn't mention having their "good closer" and Jason Giambi, because the entire point of the movie was finding cheap ways to replace those guys. So check your facts a bit more closely.

[alexandre302]

1. The standard deviation of +/-- 8 wins is unaccounted for. If this is purely random, please explain difference between purely random and luck basically purely random is the scientific equivalent of blind luck. Now, I don’t believe it is completely random, but there are some factors that the statistical analysis doesn’t account for, because there is no scientific way of the determining this except observation, and there isn’t a way to quantify it. So, there is no scientific basis for determining how much of standard deviation is unaccounted for variables and random luck is a matter of opinion. Opinions are like derrieres everyone has one. Some derrieres are more interesting than others and that’s also an opinion.
2. Keep in mind that Orioles had a much higher team WAR than was predicted before the 2012 season which is why few if any prognosticators predicted the Orioles to make the playoffs. The Orioles team WAR was between 15-20 above what was predicted. Was this due to not accurately predicting WAR or was the WAR increase completely random (blind luck) and the Orioles WAR will return to levels predicted in 2012. My opinion (see the discussionon derrieres above), it’s both.

[MetsFanatic19]

I tend to think the most important stat in the standings, actually.

Lol, I forgot to add the word 'not' in there.

I agree with you 100% in that the only thing that matters is wins. While they won't come this year, the Mets are in a great chance to get some in the future.

[alexandre302]

BTW, Billy Beane gave the Jacket credit for helping develop Hudson, but no credit for developing Zito and Mulder. Zito and Mulder had poor relationships with Peterson and that he had to order Rick to back off. Rick was violently opposed to Zito and Mulder throwing their curves. This was reported in February 2009 article. You do realize that for all his struggles Zito has never asked Peterson for help.