How the 2013 Mets make the playoffs

[SILVER SEAVER]

Every other National League team gets infected with the Motaba virus.

[SJ5382]

The gaping flaw in his methodology here is using 52 wins as the replacement level standard. The ML average across baseball for "replacement level" was 43.7 wins in 2012.

Oh, and everything else is flawed as well.

Fun Fact: The Orioles won 93 games despite a team WAR of 31.8. The Mets won 74 games with a team WAR of...you guessed it, 31.8. So one could argue that the Orioles and Mets "should have" won the same number of games, around 75-76 (based on 43.7 + 31.8). Shows how big of a factor luck/timeliness can be in this game.

[bklynny67]

The gaping flaw in his methodology here is using 52 wins as the replacement level standard. The ML average across baseball for "replacement level" was 43.7 wins in 2012.

Oh, and everything else is flawed as well.

Fun Fact: The Orioles won 93 games despite a team WAR of 31.8. The Mets won 74 games with a team WAR of...you guessed it, 31.8. So one could argue that the Orioles and Mets "should have" won the same number of games, around 75-76 (based on 43.7 + 31.8). Shows how big of a factor luck/timeliness can be in this game.

Or, it shows how much the stat WAR is flawed and just plain terrible. I hate arguments when people are using mainly WAR to defend their opinion.

Darwin Barney had a higher WAR this past season than many star players, including Josh Hamilton and the monster season he had. That equates to WAR sucking.

[StoicSentry]

Or, it shows how much the stat WAR is flawed and just plain terrible. I hate arguments when people are using mainly WAR to defend their opinion.

This ^^^

[YoungStuna]

Or, it shows how much the stat WAR is flawed and just plain terrible. I hate arguments when people are using mainly WAR to defend their opinion.

Darwin Barney had a higher WAR this past season than many star players, including Josh Hamilton and the monster season he had. That equates to WAR sucking.

The Orioles had a terrible run differential for the season and relied on a great bullpen an clutch hitting to win close games. They will not replicate their success next year, because talent-wise they aren't much better than the Mets.

[jomota]

The Orioles had a terrible run differential for the season and relied on a great bullpen an clutch hitting to win close games. They will not replicate their success next year, because talent-wise they aren't much better than the Mets.

But weren't the Mets red hot with two outs???? We probably won't repeat that. By using that assumption, that brings our win total into the 60s.

[Marty Mcfly]

This ^^^

WAR - The catch-all stat of the moron.

[MetsFanatic19]

WAR is a good stat when used with other stats around it. It is not the end-all-be-all, most important stat out there, but it definitly is a good one to use and understand.

[Dugmet]

Or, it shows how much the stat WAR is flawed and just plain terrible. I hate arguments when people are using mainly WAR to defend their opinion.

Darwin Barney had a higher WAR this past season than many star players, including Josh Hamilton and the monster season he had. That equates to WAR sucking.

One thing WAR does, is that because it focuses on so many diverse parts of a player's contribution, a very good player who does well enough in all parts can grade as well as a player who performs at an elite level in some categories. Darney's fielding skills apparently add substantial value to his score. Apparently, there were some components of Hamilton's performance that weakened his number.

I'm not a huge fan of WAR because I honestly do not understand how all the pieces of the formula fit together. It isn't as cut and dried as other pure statistics because the formula is more theoretical than anything else. Which is not to say the theory might not be a good one, but it does make it more difficult for me to picture the player it describes. I would rather look at all of the numbers, rather than one number.

Barney and Hamilton may have had similar WAR values in 2012, but they are two very different players, obviously.

[MetsFanatic19]

Darwin Barney had a higher WAR this past season than many star players, including Josh Hamilton and the monster season he had. That equates to WAR sucking.

Not exaclty. It just means Darwin Barney is very underrated in some eyes and he plays very very good defense.

WAR isn't just an offensive stat like batting average and RBI.

[Marty Mcfly]

WAR is a good stat when used with other stats around it. It is the end-all-be-all, most important stat out there, but it definitly is a good one to use and understand.

I tend to think the most important stat in the standings, actually.

[SJ5382]

Or, it shows how much the stat WAR is flawed and just plain terrible. I hate arguments when people are using mainly WAR to defend their opinion.

Darwin Barney had a higher WAR this past season than many star players, including Josh Hamilton and the monster season he had. That equates to WAR sucking.

I only use fWAR, developed by FanGraphs. You may have been referring to rWAR, from Baseball Reference. On Fangraphs, Darwin Barney had a WAR of 2.5 in 2012. Josh Hamilton had a WAR of 4.4.

I agree that WAR isn't the end-all stat, no stat can be, but IMO it's as close as it gets. What people constantly fail to consider is that it heavily factors in a player's position. Surely we can all agree that a second baseman with 20 HR power is well above average and very valuable, while a first baseman with 20 HR power may even be below average and is not nearly as valuable.

The Orioles having the same WAR as a 74-win team is a huge outlier. If standings were ordered based on team WAR alone, most teams would barely move, if at all.

[SJ5382]

I tend to think the most important stat in the standings, actually.

Surely you can agree that there are better ways to assess a team than wins and losses, considering how important luck is in baseball.

[Claymation]

The Orioles had a terrible run differential for the season and relied on a great bullpen an clutch hitting to win close games. They will not replicate their success next year, because talent-wise they aren't much better than the Mets.

Weiter, Jones, Markakis, Machado and Davis are better than what we have.

Plus they have Darren O'Day in the Pen. There's a Classic.

[SJ5382]

Weiter, Jones, Markakis, Machado and Davis are better than what we have.

Plus they have Darren O'Day in the Pen. There's a Classic.

Davis was nothing special at all for a first baseman playing at Camden Yards (can't buy a walk and strikes out a ton), and Markakis/Machado combined to play only 155 games. Going forward, they're definitely more talented, but in 2012 they weren't much better than us, if at all. Especially considering the fact that David Wright played out of his mind.