2013 PSD Mets Forum #1 Mets Prospect

[YoungStuna]

I don't know, to me ranking Wheeler over Harvey makes no sense because one guy has proven to dominate major league hitters already while the other has not. I think Harvey has better overall stuff too.

I'd be hard-pressed to see Wheeler average more than 94.7 MPH on his fastball and show the change-up Harvey showed last season. His command is behind as well I believe.

This is a case of one guy always being hyped from the time he was drafted(Wheeler) compared to a guy who didn't even make some Top 100 lists when he was drafted.(Harvey) Wheeler is overrated while Harvey was underrated.

That's how I see it.

[Claymation]

Harvey has 2 plus-plus pitches with his fastball and slider. His curveball is looking like a plus pitch. His change isn't. The funny thing is Harvey is still improving and if it wasn't for injuries he probably wouldn't have pitched in the majors last year.

Wheeler has 4 plus pitches but his FB isn't thrown at the same velocity as Harvey. He does have good movement on it. He still has his 12-6 curveball which is outstanding. His cutter and change improved into plus pitches.

[YoungStuna]

Harvey has 2 plus-plus pitches with his fastball and slider. His curveball is looking like a plus pitch. His change isn't. The funny thing is Harvey is still improving and if it wasn't for injuries he probably wouldn't have pitched in the majors last year.

Wheeler has 4 plus pitches but his FB isn't thrown at the same velocity as Harvey. He does have good movement on it. He still has his 12-6 curveball which is outstanding. His cutter and change improved into plus pitches.

Harvey's curve is his worst pitch from my eyes and based on pitch values. His change has developed into an above average weapon, though not plus. I agree that his fastball and slider are plus-plus pitches.

I haven't heard much about Wheeler's change and from what I've seen he hasn't thrown it much.

I like his breaking balls a lot though. They say his fastball has more downward tilt, so maybe more ground balls will come from Wheeler as opposed to Harvey.

[Sick Of It All]

Harvey's fastball in the minors was 92-94 while Wheeler's fastball was 94-96.

I really have to see Harvey continue to show that velocity for a whole year as pro to make me think that it was more than just him being so hyped about being in the majors.


At this point the ceiling for Wheeler is still higher, but as mention before, the likelihood of Harvey reaching that ceiling of a #2 is more of a reality than Wheeler becoming that #1 type guy.

[YoungStuna]

Just for reference, here's how each pitch compares to each other for Harvey in his 10 start stretch:

wFastball/100: 0.66, 9.9% SwStr%
wSlider/100: 3.58, 14.2% SwStr%
wCurveball/100: -0.84, 15.3% SwStr%
wChangeup/100: 1.12, 18.8% SwStr%

Bet no one would have thought that Harvey's best swing and miss pitch is his change-up. It's pretty nasty when he throws it down in the zone, that is why I like Harvey so much because he has shown to throw 4 quality pitches.

He just needs to continue refining his fastball command and have more and more confidence in his secondaries.

[YoungStuna]

Harvey's fastball in the minors was 92-94 while Wheeler's fastball was 94-96.

I really have to see Harvey continue to show that velocity for a whole year as pro to make me think that it was more than just him being so hyped about being in the majors.

At this point the ceiling for Wheeler is still higher, but as mention before, the likelihood of Harvey reaching that ceiling of a #2 is more of a reality than Wheeler becoming that #1 type guy.

Wheeler is not 94-96 MPH, and Harvey threw harder than that.

Here's what Keith Law said about both before the season:

On Wheeler

He will touch 97 mph and sit at least 91-94 with an above-average curveball that has shown it can miss bats. He has a fringy changeup that's a little too firm, giving up a .283/.375/.452 line to left-handed hitters as a result (although that improved after the trade in a small sample). His control is still below-average, and he'll have to show durability to match his frame, as he retired more than 18 batters just twice all year.

On Harvey

He will sit 91-97 mph as a starter with good downhill plane, and his changeup is a weapon for him against both left- and right-handed hitters. His curve and slider tend to run together, and he'd probably be better off just picking one or the other and using it exclusively to avoid throwing in-between pitches that will get hammered at higher levels

Wheeler will never be better than Harvey if his change does not improve. Harvey has the total package and a #1 upside upon further command refinements. Sickels said if he was still eligible, he would give him an "A" rating with no borderline anything.

[Sick Of It All]

...and here is what BA had to say about Wheeler

Scouting Report: Since his trade to the Mets, Wheeler has blossomed into one of the top pitching prospects in the game. His fastball sits at 94-95 mph and tops out at 98, playing up thanks to an easy arm action and late life that often causes batters to take defensive swings.

This is what they said about Harvey

When Harvey throws consistent strikes with his 92-98 mph fastball and gets ahead of hitters, they're in trouble, because he can miss bats with both breaking balls.

Wheeler had been clocked at a higher velocity most of last year hence why there were so many guys that had him clearly as the Mets best prospect.

Hell in the games i saw myself of both pitchers Wheeler showed better velocity as well. Harvey was 92-95 while Wheeler was 93-97.

[YoungStuna]

If Wheeler averages more than 94.7 MPH on his fastball, I will be super impressed. Harvey has topped out at 99 MPH.

BA does not mention Harvey's change at all, which is why I believe Harvey is underrated. His change has become a nasty swing and miss pitch.

Harvey's slider is filthy as well, but Wheeler has a great curveball too. Both are great, but I think Harvey is better.

Remember, higher rankings does not equal better pitcher. For me I got 1-Harvey, 2-Wheeler.

[Sick Of It All]

...and again you are taking his 10 starts to mean everything in your evaluation, there were many other starts in the minors where Harvey did not do as well and why the reason why so many scouts had no problem choosing Wheeler over Harvey.

Obviously a higher ranking does not mean he is a better pitcher, anybody that follows prospects would tell you that. The rankings are there based on their stuff, their ceilings as well as on field production.

You are basically saying Harvey is better because you saw him pitch and you doubt the other guy can do what he did.

IMO they are as equal as 2 guys can get, I just give the nod to Wheeler for now.

...and BA does mention his change up.


Here is their scouting report on Harvey.

When Harvey throws consistent strikes with his 92-98 mph fastball and gets ahead of hitters, they're in trouble, because he can miss bats with both breaking balls. He throws his plus curveball at 79-84 mph and varies his slider from an 87-88 mph cutter to a pitch with more depth at 84-86. His changeup remains firm but effective, and he handles lefthanders fairly well.

This is their scouting report on Wheeler.

Since his trade to the Mets, Wheeler has blossomed into one of the top pitching prospects in the game. His fastball sits at 94-95 mph and tops out at 98, playing up thanks to an easy arm action and late life that often causes batters to take defensive swings. He throws downhill from a lanky 6-foot-4 frame, making it difficult—particularly for righthanders—to lift the ball. Righties batted just .204/.259/.271 against him last season. He shows a good feel for changing speeds on his fastball and for mixing in a two-seamer that runs away from lefties. Wheeler owes his breakthrough success largely to growth in three areas: health, control and repertoire. He learned to manage the persistent soreness in the middle finger of his pitching hand—caused by a fingernail avulsion—and established a career high with 149 innings in 2012. His walk rate has decreased from 5.2 per nine innings in the Giants system to 3.3 with the Mets, and he has added a slider and a changeup. Wheeler relied more on a power curveball as a Giant, but he now turns equally to an upper-80s slider with plus potential. He still mixes in a sharp high-70s curve that bottoms out, and he also has the makings of an average changeup for which he's trying to find the perfect grip. He's remarkably efficient for a young power pitcher, averaging six innings per start in 2012, and he also excels at holding runners. Just eight of 19 basestealers (42 percent) succeeded against him last season.

[YoungStuna]

Based on that scouting report, it sounds like Harvey is better.

"Has the makings of an average change-up" means Wheeler has a below average change-up.

Lets compare their arsenals right now:

Fastball: Push
Slider: Harvey(by a little)
Curve: Wheeler(by a lot)
Change: Harvey(by a lot)
Command: Harvey(by a little)
Make-up: Harvey

[Sick Of It All]

You have not see Wheeler's stuff as much as you have seen Harvey's so you can't make that judgement. Again you are making your decision based on the 10 starts by Harvey and that is it, you have yet to see Wheeler as much as you seen Harvey.

Based on scouting reports and other reports by scouts and so on, Wheeler was the better prospect, will he be the better pitchers in the pros? who knows.

[YoungStuna]

You have not see Wheeler's stuff as much as you have seen Harvey's so you can't make that judgement. Again you are making your decision based on the 10 starts by Harvey and that is it, you have yet to see Wheeler as much as you seen Harvey.

Based on scouting reports and other reports by scouts and so on, Wheeler was the better prospect, will he be the better pitchers in the pros? who knows.

True, but I have seen some of Wheeler. 10 starts is a lot of starts.

Sickels says that Harvey would be an "A" prospect now if eligible. I agree 100%

[dunbummin]

I always have a hard time assessing apples against oranges . . er . . I mean position players against pitchers.

That said, I had to go with d'Arnaud as top prospect. I just feel he will make an impact sooner, his impact will be greater on the team, and he can become one of the top catchers in the majors in the next year or so. I don't have as much confidence in Wheeler's ability to dominate that so many posters here seem to have.

IMO, Wheeler still has command issues to work out, which I hope he does at AAA in the first half, but Vegas is not the best place for a pitcher to work out his issues. In that hitter's paradise pitchers tend to try to be too precise. It will be a true test, and if he comes out the better for it, we're going to see something special come August and September. Wheeler pitching to d'Arnaud will be a sight to see.

[SJ5382]

1. D'Arnaud
2. Wheeler
3. Harvey

I went with D'Arnaud, mainly because I have more faith in a position player's ability to stay healthy (although I know he has had some recent injury problems). I also love that he's a catcher with a plus arm and great power. Hopefully he can grow into a Posey-type with better power, but a bit less plate discipline.

To me, Wheeler and Harvey is a toss-up, but I give the edge to Wheeler. He does have better stuff, although I worry about his control and hope we don't see his strikeout rate continue to decline next season.

Admittedly, as you can probably tell, I am not very knowledgable on assessing prospects. But I am learning.

[YoungStuna]

I still don't think that Harvey should not have been included, it would have made it a better debate between the actual prospects: Wheeler and d'Arnaud.

I went with D'Arnaud, mainly because I have more faith in a position player's ability to stay healthy (although I know he has had some recent injury problems). I also love that he's a catcher with a plus arm and great power. Hopefully he can grow into a Posey-type with better power, but a bit less plate discipline.

d'Arnaud doesn't have Posey-upside.