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  1. #61
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    id deal saunders, seager, walker, paxton, franklin, and Pryor/Capps

    for stanton, ruggiano, dobbs

    that is them upgrading at 2 spots and getting 3 top specs for stanton.

    the kicker is we are still under budget to replenish seager and saunders in the future... and its not like its out of the question that guys in the system could replace seager and saunders either... add in stanton will help revenue and make SEA a more desirable destination, and helps our young guys develop. i see risk for sure, but more benefit.

    but like s4e said in the other thread, im not buying MIA is serious to move stanton or that another team may go a step further to blow em out of the water. throw in the fact GMZ has been preaching about his "plan" with each off season and transaction period that we dont make a move. a stanton trade completely takes his plan off course, it would be out of his character to make this kinda move.

  2. #62
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    if we landed stanton it may even make sense to sign bourn... how is a bourn, stanton, morales lineup not going to be really good? and i bet montero absolutely thrives and maybe even ackley.... not to mention we could be a favorite destination for FA pitchers if we have a powerful offense in a pitchers park.
    Last edited by Rain City; 01-02-2013 at 05:49 PM.

  3. #63
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    Leave Saunders and Ruggiano out? They are probably similar value. Ruggiano was really good last year, so his may be even better.

    And I have heard lineup protection doesnt matter so I dont see Ackley and Montero thriving much more than they would have. But since you are on their side, whoever pointed that out to me before wont say anything.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    Leave Saunders and Ruggiano out? They are probably similar value. Ruggiano was really good last year, so his may be even better.

    And I have heard lineup protection doesnt matter so I dont see Ackley and Montero thriving much more than they would have. But since you are on their side, whoever pointed that out to me before wont say anything.
    Their side? We have no sides here, man. This isn't me vs you or Brodie vs MC.

    I hate hearing about lineup protection. I think it's absolute bull. Talent should no matter what.

    I wouldn't be bringing Stanton in to protect Ackley and Montero. I'd be bringing him in to blowout the Safeco sign.
    I'm In.



  5. #65
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    I can see lineup protection maybe being a factor like once every other game, when the game is on the line, a "lesser" batter is at the plate, a run needs to score, and the pitcher is more worried about the scenario of facing the next guy after a run-scoring-hit with the current batter... maybe we're down a run, and if the current batter ties the game and brings up Stanton we can win the game. But walking PlayerX, or at least throwing him garbage puts a potential double play into the mix against Stanton. I mean its not even really a scenario for adding "protection", that's just simply an intentional walk scenario.... that's the closest you get to a pitcher fearing the next batter, and therefore pitching the current guy different.

    The only way I do see Stanton following, say, Seager or Montero making a difference is that it could provide somewhat of a confidence boost to those guys in terms of believing what they do at the plate matters, because it will be followed up by one of the strongest bats in the majors. I mean it might be a 5% confidence boost. But that's not "protection" by any means, its more of a factor of morale.

    "Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt" - Abraham Lincoln

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    We already have 1-2 holes in the OF. This fills one, but then makes another. We can't count on Guti to be healthy or Bay to magically figure out how to hit. That's not a smart plan.

    Franklin is being traded too, how can you move him to third?

    Giving up two current starters and 3 top specs for one player isn't smart. I don't care who the player is. That is too much.

    People are acting like the top specs we trade are so unproven, yet they put a lot of faith into lower rated specs being able to fill in an produce. How does that make any sense?
    We are going into the season right now counting on Guti to be healthy and that Bay magically finds his stroke again. Sure we have Saunders, but we have no other legit OF. This basically upgrades Saunders into a guy who can potentially give you 60 HR's in his prime, but at the meantime will give you 40. I forgot Franklin was thrown in this trade, but we could look at some other options. Maybe trade Jaso or one of the logjamed C for a 3rd baseman to take over. You make room for a guy of this calibur. This is the guy you build around. A great piece to center your team around. The kid is only 23 right now!! I say trade for him and lock him up for a decade. That makes it worth the prospects you are giving up.
    Last edited by kpak76; 01-02-2013 at 08:20 PM.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    Leave Saunders and Ruggiano out? They are probably similar value. Ruggiano was really good last year, so his may be even better.

    And I have heard lineup protection doesnt matter so I dont see Ackley and Montero thriving much more than they would have. But since you are on their side, whoever pointed that out to me before wont say anything.
    Where did you hear this? It is know that guys that bat ahead of guys like Stanton get more fastballs in the zone to hit. The pitcher wants them to put the ball in play for an easy out.

  8. #68
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    I have heard it multiple times on people around here. Look a few posts up.

    And no, we aren't counting on Bay, at all. Most people don't even think he will make the team. Signing someone for one year at $500,000 doesn't mean we think he makes the team. In fact, it probably means the opposite.

    We don't have nearly as many OF options in house as we do at 3rd. Not the same situation.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    I have heard it multiple times on people around here. Look a few posts up.

    And no, we aren't counting on Bay, at all. Most people don't even think he will make the team. Signing someone for one year at $500,000 doesn't mean we think he makes the team. In fact, it probably means the opposite.

    We don't have nearly as many OF options in house as we do at 3rd. Not the same situation.
    Not sure why your so against moving those pieces for arguably the best young OFer today. He mans RF, Guti mans CF, and as long as you have a guy who can step up and hit and run a bit he should be able to track balls down in LF also. We can bring up some of the younger 3rd sackers in the system and let them duke it out during spring. F-Mart, Liddi, both of these guys can have a shot to claim that spot. You make a position that is weak in your system much much stronger while taking away from parts of the orginization that is richer in talent. It's a no brainer. Trading for a guy like Stanton is going to cost something. If your not willing to step up, you really have no buisness wanting him here then. If things don't work out, you can make a trade for major league 3rd baseman or OFer, we still have the prospects for that after a trade like this.

  10. #70
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    I agree that if a guy like Stanton is behind u, u will see better pitches IMO. Obviously the player and circumstance matters and u definitely gotta have talent to make it matter. You aren't gonna turn a .200 guy into a .300 guy.

  11. #71
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    I'm gonna try and collect some stats this next season... once we know who hits in front of our primary slugger, try and find the most similarly profiled player in our lineup (LH/RH, hits RHP/LHP as equally as possible, etc), and record what kinds of pitches each one gets against a give SP, assuming the other guy does not have a slugger behind him. Obviously the "threat" factor of each of these two players will also be a consideration, and likewise if either of them has certain pitches that are known to be their weakness... truly, it would be easier if we could simply take one guy, bat him before the slugger, and compare to him batting somewhere else in the lineup, but then you'd realistically have to do it against two different starting pitchers. Wow, I just can't see a way to end this argument with any thread of confidence. Its simply one theory versus another.

    "Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt" - Abraham Lincoln

  12. #72
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    Has anyone actually researched lineup protection? Like writers?

    I'll go look once I finish typing this. But I have a feeling it's not what we think
    I'm In.



  13. #73
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    Andre Ethier recently said that he felt he was seeing better pitches with Manny Ramirez batting behind him. The same was speculated regarding Jeff Kent, when he hit before ManRam. What does better pitches mean? More carefully placed pitches? Less junk? The best I can figure, better pitches refers to both a higher percentage of fastballs and an overall higher percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone, regardless of type. To test this, I looked at the Pitch F/X data for Ethier from 3/31 to 8/27, when he was not hitting ahead of Manny, and compared it to the data from 8/28 until the end of the season, when Manny was protecting him. Here are the results:

    Pre-Hitting Before Manny
    Fastballs: 61.7%
    Cu/Sl: 23.7%
    Changeup: 14.6%

    Pitches per PA: 3.75
    Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 55.5%

    Hitting Before Manny
    Fastballs: 62.7%
    Cu/Sl: 23.0%
    Changeup: 14.3%

    Pitches per PA: 4.32
    Pitches in the Generous Strike Zone: 56.6%

    Essentially, nothing has changed. There was a shift in his curveballs or sliders seen but that is more likely a byproduct of the pitchers he was facing rather than any type of game strategy. He saw virtually the same amount of fastballs and same percentage of pitches in a pretty generous strike zone before hitting in front of Manny and after. It might seem like he is seeing better pitches but it could be some type of placebo effect. Then again, if you define “better pitches” differently, let me know and I’ll run more tests. - Eric Seidman

    ***

    UPDATE: Eric adds: “One aspect of seeing better pitches that this would not measure is when they are thrown. In theory, a guy with a 3-2 count and Michael Bourn on deck could see a tricky slider designed to strike him out, but which may walk him. With Manny, they don’t want to put someone on ahead of him, so Ethier may be more likely to see fastballs in these types of situations. Given his increase in pitches per PA batting ahead of Manny he is also exhibiting more patience at the plate and working the count, quite possibly into his favor.”
    Boom.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1042
    I'm In.



  14. #74
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  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iansnightout View Post
    Kinda like I was thinking... its more of a morale/confidence boost than anything. You feel like you are seeing better pitches, and probably take ABs with more confidence. But the reality of the situation is that the pitcher is still facing you, not the other guy. And YOU have a history that the pitcher is trying to adjust for, throw you what you don't want, so he can get you out.

    "Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt" - Abraham Lincoln

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