There's also the issue of your trade partner. Giving up that much production in one player, it's very likely they'll want a player with a similar ceiling coming back. A pitching-rich deal won't cut it.
As for Buchholz, he is under contract at relatively reasonable rates through 2015, with reasonable options through 2017. That's a year longer than they'd have Stanton. My assumption is that Clay would generally pitch around 6 innings in an NL lineup and have success more like 2010 (not quite that good but lower IP counts due to the NL style of play and weaker lineups would make him look really good).
The last point is that Barnes, RDLR, and Webster all have the chance to be very good MLB pitchers -- middle to top of the rotation. I'd rather take the chance on lights-out pitching prospects and swap freakish power hitters.
Let's stay on topic.
Miami has a track record of trading for pitching if I recall correctly. They also already have a few good young hitting specs. Yelich (A spec), Marisnick, and Ozuna are a good hitting set of outfielders coming up through their system. They'd also have WMB at third and a good catching spec. Then you have Brentz after the trade as well and he's relatively close to the majors.
Buchholz I would love to trade in a Stanton deal, I'm in favor of dealing him one way or another (in the right deal of course). I think he's a little older than the target range of Miami, but how much that matters to them I have no idea. I'd like it if they'd be interested in him. Just a note, he averaged 6.5 innings per start this year already (6.05 career). It's just a matter of him making 30+ starts which he can't seem to do.
He may get to PAW before the year is out but I doubt that it's for much more than half a season (if that). That puts him in line to start 2014 in PAW and work into MLB later in the season. Any other move is likely because the Sox chose to sign Drew for only one season and saw no SS alternatives they liked for only a single season in 2014.
Xander would have to have an extremely good season to make the team out of Spring Training next year. You're overhyping him if you think he's almost a sure bet to be a starter out of ST next year. I agree mostly with Rst's projection. He will likely spend almost the entire season at AA, with a short stint at AAA during the last month of the season if he's having a good season (his 2012 season promotion is the footprint they will follow). Then he will start 2014 in AAA, and will be called up based on need/how well he is playing.
The only way he starts out of 2014 ST is if he puts up Lavarnway 2011/WMB 2012 numbers in AA for a couple months. Then he has to play well at AAA and get called up in September. It's a very unlikely scenario, I'd be shocked if it happened.
Look at the speed hes worked his way up so far and consider that for many top specs such as Bogaerts, AAA is the shortest stop. I like his chances. He's sort of been on the same type of path as Machado. If he continues at his pace from the end of the year in Portland I think he'll be here early next year. I think his adjustment to AA will be the biggest factor. That or his BB%, which will be something to keep an eye on.
That being said midseason anything could happen. Xb could play out of his mind in AAA and force his way into the MLB or their could always be injuries in Boston. We will find out, but i highly doubt there are any intentions on much MLB time this year.
Bogaerts will be called up to AAA by early June if he tears up AA at the beginning.
He is less than 2 years away, they aren't going to let him just sit in AA because of defensive reasons at SS if he isn't going to last their anyways.
His value is all in his offense for the most part
Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all
Itz gonna be so exciting
Make this infield happen by 2015!
I want Xander to take his time in the minors, no reason to rush the kid.
The name is Amendola....
The Sox have been VERY deliberate with their process over the past decade. With Theo at the helm they typically had a 6 week evaluation cycle and made roster moves at the end of each period. The pattern is not quite established with Cherrington but it's likely to be pretty similar given his primary responsibility on the player development side of things under Epstein.
-Lav- is absolutely right about the likely course. The most common pattern for players moving up the chain is to earn a promotion around Aug 1 to get their feet wet at the next level. The primary exceptions to this have been college talent that was slotted a low-A Greenville and earned a quick promotion in early May.
Thus far, Bogaerts has followed the common pattern. The most exceptional part of his development has been how early he started, not how quickly he has moved up the ladder. DSL at 17, low-A at 18, A+ at 19 (with late promotion)... basically a year at each level. There's no reason to think they'll break from the pattern.
Last edited by RedSoxtober; 01-04-2013 at 03:16 PM.