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  1. #1
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    Why the Giants aren't a top 10 team..

    How could I leave the defending World Series champions out of my top 10 offseason power rankings? Giants fans weren't happy. One of my editors wasn't happy. So here you go. Ten reasons I didn't have the Giants in my top 10:

    1. The Giants in 2012 scored 718 runs and allowed 649. This would normally result in a record of 88-74, meaning the Giants exceeded their expected record -- based on those runs scored and allowed totals -- by six wins. That was tied with the Reds for the second-highest positive differential in the league, behind the Orioles' historically anomalous plus-11. To me, this means the Giants' true talent level is closer to that of an 88-win team than a 94-win team.

    2. Now, Giants fans will argue this is because of their good bullpen or the team's ability to "play the game the right way." The Giants did have a good record in one-run games: 30-20, the fifth-best percentage in the majors (although it's worth noting that the Indians had the third-best such percentage). It's also true that the Giants exceeded their projected record by six wins in 2011, tied for the highest differential in the majors. In 2010, however, they underperformed by two wins. While there is some correlation between a good bullpen and a team's record in one-run games, that isn't always the case. Tampa Bay had an outstanding bullpen in 2012, led by Fernando Rodney, but was 21-27 in one-run games. The Yankees were 22-25 in one-run games but the Marlins were 26-26. I'm not suggesting the Giants don't play the "right way," but we're trying to quantify talent here.

    3. You can also argue that the Giants exceeded their runs scored totals based on their offensive components. For example, the Giants and Reds posted an identical .314 wOBA, yet the Giants scored 49 more runs than the Reds. The Giants hit .269/.327/.397 while the Diamondbacks hit .259/.328/.418, yet Arizona scored just 16 more runs. The Giants raised their game with men on base, hitting .276/.341/.412, and hit even better in "high leverage" situations at .293/.358/.443. This ability to produce in what we'll call clutch situations isn't necessarily a repeatable skill.

    How past five World Series champions fared:
    Year Team Record Result
    2011 Cardinals 90-72 to 88-74 wild card
    2010 Giants 92-70 to 86-76 missed playoffs
    2009 Yankees 103-59 to 95-67 wild card
    2008 Phillies 92-70 to 93-69 NL East champs
    2007 Red Sox 96-66 to 95-67 wild card
    4. Melky Cabrera was awesome in 2012, hitting .346/.390/.516 in 501 plate appearances prior to his season-ending suspension. Right now, the Giants haven't replaced that, as Gregor Blanco -- certainly an adequate fourth outfielder -- would be the regular left fielder. Cabrera created about 93 runs in his 501 PAs; Blanco created about 52 in 453; prorated over 501 PAs, that's still a 35-run drop from Cabrera.

    5. Possible regression from Buster Posey and Angel Pagan. MVP winner Posey hit .336/.408/.549, but much of that damage was built up against left-handers, off whom he hit .433 with a .793 slugging percentage. Against right-handers he hit .292 with a more pedestrian .440 slugging. Posey also hit .368 on balls in play -- the sixth-best mark in the majors. It's entirely possible that's a real skill, but if I had to predict, I would predict Posey doesn't hit .336 again. Pagan had an inspired season in 2012 and is one of the more underrated players in baseball. He's also one year removed from a poor season with the Mets and has to show he can put back-to-back seasons together.

    6. Hunter Pence. Overrated.

    7. Marco Scutaro hit .362 for the Giants. Marco Scutaro is not a .362 hitter.

    8. The rotation didn't miss a start in 2012, as the top five guys started 160 of 162 games (Eric Hacker made one start because of a doubleheader and Yusmeiro Petit made one late-season start). Can Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito all stay healthy again? They'll need to as there isn't much depth on the 40-man roster -- Petit, who owns a 5.54 career ERA in the majors -- would be the apparent fill-in guy right now. It just seems to me that odds of all five guys not missing any time two straight years is pretty slim.

    9. Tim Lincecum. As good as he pitched out of the bullpen in the playoffs, let's not forget he was one of the worst starters in the majors last season, with a 5.18 ERA, including a 6.43 ERA away from the friendly confines of AT&T Park. Now there are some positive signs here: He was better in the second half (3.83 ERA) and his FIP of 4.18 suggests better peripherals than his actual ERA. But I don't think we can assume he's still the elite pitcher he was until we see better results.

    10. The NL West looks tougher. The Dodgers should be better, the Diamondbacks should be better and the young Padres could be better. The Giants played .625 ball against the NL West last year, .544 against everyone else, so a tougher division could eat into their overall win-loss record.

    Now, OF COURSE I COULD BE WRONG. The Giants surprised us in 2010 and then went on their unlikely postseason run in 2012 after losing their first two games to the Reds in the Division Series. The Giants are certainly a good club. But there are a lot of good clubs right now, and I just don't see the Giants as a great club. If the rotation stays healthy and Lincecum bounces back, the Giants will be right there once again. And maybe win their third title in four years.
    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...s-in-my-top-10

    Here's all 30 teams: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...s-all-30-teams
    "We earned this ****ing burn. It doesn’t matter how you get from A to B. Our goal at the beginning of this ****ing season is to win a ****ing World Series, and guess what, boys, we’re going to the ****ing dance." - The Reverend Hunter Pence

    #3in5



    <3
    "[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck

  2. #2
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    Good read, all very good points, but you just never know..Looking at the rankings it makes sense, but I always get the feeling that big names are what garner respect these days, that's all fine and well, but we still may be the superior TEAM, and organization overall(ppl are going to **** on me for saying this). But big names don't equate to overall team performance which is what I saw the giants wield masterfully. So perhaps the giants function better throughout all their facets(front office, coaching staff, players, etc.) when combined, which translates to their high level of success so far with this core of players and add ons that are thrown into the mix. Thus I think it is false to overlook us even though technically through stats we should not rank "top10".
    Last edited by hd1906; 12-27-2012 at 02:57 AM.

    GIANTSNINERSWARRIORS

  3. #3
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    Lots of "ifs", all of which could be said for all teams. What if, what if, what if.

    With that said, there's like 50 days left until pitchers and catchers report!
    Last edited by ESaady; 12-27-2012 at 03:19 AM. Reason: because i can.

  4. #4
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    Exactly, remember how the marlins ranked last offseason?

    GIANTSNINERSWARRIORS

  5. #5
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    I agree it was a good read, and made some valid points and observations, except one very important one: We won the ****ing WS two of the past three years!!

    Everything in baseball isn't about numbers. We proved that twice. The Giants are the "anti-stats" team of the decade (so far). Real world play & hustle baseball. And I'm proud of that. See the ball, hit the ball, play the game, win the game. And we do it on the field, not on a freaking spreadsheet!

    /rant (sorry)
    "They throw the ball, I hit it. They hit the ball, I catch it." - Willie Mays

  6. #6
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    All the points make sense, outside of #9. He says you can't assume Lincecum will return to form, I don't think you can assume he'll struggle again. I think the pitching will be better in 2013.



    Playoff Bochy.



  7. #7
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    wow giants owns fans doubting them. Unbelievable. How the rest of the country goanna respect u when u can't respect ur own team.

  8. #8
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    It's good to be objective. People will take you more seriously and actually respect you.
    "We earned this ****ing burn. It doesn’t matter how you get from A to B. Our goal at the beginning of this ****ing season is to win a ****ing World Series, and guess what, boys, we’re going to the ****ing dance." - The Reverend Hunter Pence

    #3in5



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    "[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck

  9. #9
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    Make stuff up often ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Over Da Pence View Post
    wow giants owns fans doubting them. Unbelievable. How the rest of the country goanna respect u when u can't respect ur own team.
    Do you even bother reading the post of others before you make your own over the top post bro ?

    I don't see any of the 5 post before yours with anyone doubting the Giants ??? I see a few words about how true the writers points are but not one poster once doubting the Giants ... I do hope he isn't right about Pence being overated ...
    *NICK DIAZ IS A SAINT I SWEAR...I ONCE SEEN HIM WALK A OLD LADY ACROSS THE ROAD...THEN HE FLIPPED HER OFF*

    MMA'S 4 HORSEMEN NICK DIAZ,NATE DIAZ,JAKE SHIELDS,GILBERT MELENDEZ

    GIANTS15 AKA RAIDERS15

    " ONLY GOD CAN JUDGE ME "

  10. #10
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    Just a case of a journalist trying to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction to gain some notoriety. #s 6 and 9 argue for the Giants being better. Pence had the worst OBP and OPS of his career with his stint with the Giants. I would expect him to improve. #9 is mind-boggling. It's a wonder whether he will regain Cy Young form, but I doubt he will be the worst starter in baseball again.... This writer is a bum. Oh, and 10 doesn't even matter for how good the Giants will be.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by GIANTS15 View Post
    Do you even bother reading the post of others before you make your own over the top post bro ?

    I don't see any of the 5 post before yours with anyone doubting the Giants ??? I see a few words about how true the writers points are but not one poster once doubting the Giants ... I do hope he isn't right about Pence being overated ...
    Don't mind him. He's a troll who thinks he's Hunter Pence.

    2010, 2012, and 2014 World Series Champions

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by SFrush90 View Post
    Don't mind him. He's a troll who thinks he's Hunter Pence.
    Oh I know ... I've seen him already making tons of friends over on the Warriors forum .
    *NICK DIAZ IS A SAINT I SWEAR...I ONCE SEEN HIM WALK A OLD LADY ACROSS THE ROAD...THEN HE FLIPPED HER OFF*

    MMA'S 4 HORSEMEN NICK DIAZ,NATE DIAZ,JAKE SHIELDS,GILBERT MELENDEZ

    GIANTS15 AKA RAIDERS15

    " ONLY GOD CAN JUDGE ME "

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by GIANTS15 View Post
    Oh I know ... I've seen him already making tons of friends over on the Warriors forum .
    Yeah he's our best friend over there as well

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by giants73756 View Post
    Just a case of a journalist trying to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction to gain some notoriety. #s 6 and 9 argue for the Giants being better. Pence had the worst OBP and OPS of his career with his stint with the Giants. I would expect him to improve. #9 is mind-boggling. It's a wonder whether he will regain Cy Young form, but I doubt he will be the worst starter in baseball again.... This writer is a bum. Oh, and 10 doesn't even matter for how good the Giants will be.
    for what it's worth he wasn't the worst starter in the majors last year, i wanna say that was Johnathan Sanchez, or maybe Liriano (strangely all 3 are connected to the giants lol)
    checking differnet projections like bill james and zips etc, they all seem to think that he will be somewhere in the 190-200 ip range, and anywhere from 3.50-3.80 era, then again most were projecting voggy to decline a little too, so i think everything will even out in the end.

    I think the giants will still be around 90 wins next year, idk if that is good enough for the playoffs but we will see.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Over Da Pence View Post
    wow giants owns fans doubting them. Unbelievable. How the rest of the country goanna respect u when u can't respect ur own team.
    Why would you pose like that in your sig with your mom and sister? That's disturbing.
    Quote Originally Posted by nessythegreat View Post
    This is getting old. Enough is enough. Redskin Is not offensive and it will never change.
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I want to start a website where people who say this video tape themselves going up to Native Americans and go "hey what's up redskin?" and then upload what happens.

    I'll call it WhatsUpRedskin.com



    You want to go first?
    I fully support this future site.

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