Prospects/Farm System

[browniebuck]

I have been sick since Christmas...so, needless to say I have been bored out of my gourd! I have been looking at our farm system and our top ranked prospects...a little scary to say the least (at least short term). If you look at the Tribe's official website, they have the top 20 prospects (heading into 2013).

A little analysis of the list...
1. Trevor Bauer - RHP (22 years old when season begins) - cracked Arizona's ML roster midseason last year
2. Francisco Lindor - SS (19) - at least 2 years away from reaching Cleveland as he has not played above Low A ball thus far in his career
3. Dorssys Paulino - SS (18) - at least 2-3 years away from reaching Cleveland as he hasn't played above Low A ball thus far in his career
4. Tony Wolters - SS (20) - at least another year or two away from reaching ML roster, had fair success in Single A Carolina last year
5. Scott Barnes - LHP (25) - relief option this year at ML level...could translate to rotation at some point in his career
6. Ronny Rodriguez - SS (21) - at least another year or two from reaching Cleveland, never played above Single A Carolina...intriguing as he has some pop in his bat.
7. Tyler Naquin - OF (21) - at least 2 years away from reaching ML roster, showed little pop in first professional season at Mahoning Valley.
8. Dillon Howard - RHP (20) - at least 2-3 years away from making impact at Major League level...struggled mightily with the Arizona League Indians.
9. Mitch Brown - RHP (18) - at least 3 years away from making his way through the minors, pitched fairly well in Arizona during first professional season.
10. Alex Monsalve - C (20) - at least 2-3 years away, struggled with the bat during limited action at Single A Carolina.
11. LeVon Washington - OF (21) - burst onto the scene in 2010-11 with strong start to professional career, injuries hampered him last season...probably at least 2 years away barring any more injuries.
12. Jesus Aguilar - 1B (22) - at least another year away from ML roster...has shown some pop and ability to hit for average at both Single and Double A.
13. Luigi Rodriguez - OF (20) - another talent at least 2-3 years away from reaching relevance to Tribe fans...has shown decent pop and speed on the base paths.
14. Jorge Martinez - SS (19) - long ways away from Cleveland...showed promise in Arizona league but struggled mightily in Mahoning Valley.
15. Chun Chen - C/1B (24) - getting close to time for him to show what he has got, getting older...has shown ability to hit for average.
16. Chris McGuiness - 1B (24) - with solid Spring Training, should break camp with the team and could be DH/1B option. Has pop and a pretty solid eye at the plate
17. Jake Sisco - RHP (21) - at least 2-3 years away from ML roster, 5.03 ERA at Mahoning Valley leaves quite a bit to be desired.
18. Kieran Lovegrove - RHP (18) - 2012 3rd rounder, didn't get much work in first professional season...probably 3-4 years away.
19. D'vone McClure - OF (19) - 2012 4th rounder...who knows what he will turn into? At best 3 years away from making impact.
20. Jose Ramirez - 2B (20) - put up solid numbers at Low A Lake County, but still at least 2-3 years away from working his way through the minor league system.

Of the indians.com top 20, only 3 are, IMO, going to have anything to do with the ML roster this season. That means that the other 17 in the Top 20 are at least 2 years away, which means that we really don't know a whole lot about them...15 of the Top 20 are 21 or younger.

Other names (from indiansprospectinsider.com).
Nick Hagadone - LHP (25) - made an impact last year at ML level before flipping out when told he was being sent down and hurting himself. Needs to control emotions, but has solid upside out of the pen.
Chen-Chang Lee - RHP (26) - Tommy John in 2012, should be ready in 2014. Was the Tribe's Minor League pitcher of the year in 2011.
Elvis Araujo - LHP (21) - big lefthander has shown potential, needs to work on control...still a couple years away.


I haven't been too keen on the "shipping out the current ML talent for prospects" idea, but if we are going to compete, we may need to make another move or two in order to shore things up for the next year or two. Cabrera and Perez could be shipped elsewhere for a package of players that are closer to ML ready to those that we have on the farm...Mike Aviles wouldn't be the worst thing to run out there at SS for this season if it means that we get better talent with more team control.

Thoughts?

[bigalow80]

agreed. AC is a good player but not a great player. the same goes for CP. I say trade them while their value is at their peak (especially since they have very team friendly deals-even CP being arb 4 elg). A team like the dodgers, rangers, rays all of whom have loads of ML ready or 1 year away talent would be the perfect pairings. Dolans are spending some but it will not be enough to offset what KC or DET have done this off-season.

[ottograham14]

By John Sickles (most respected minor league baseball name)

1-Trevor Bauer A- : Ace, Potential to be great, needs to work on control.

2-Francisco Lindor A-: Outstanding defensive SS

3-Dorssys Paulino B: Had best offensive season in AZL league in last 10 years last year, only 18

4-Mitch Brown B-: Good velocity and secondary pitches, could be a great #2 or solid #1

5-Tyler NaQuin B-: good defensive OF, Line drive high OBP guy

6-Cody Allen B-: lights out closer potential

7-Ronny Rodriguez C+: Power, Speed and a good arm, fast riser, will be in AA at 20/21 years old

8-Tony Wolters C+: doesn't have RR tools but solid 2B in the.box and in the field

9-Jose Ramirez C+: Wont be ranked high by many due to gis size but he's a hitting machine, batted. 367 in single A last year and 400 OBP

10-Luigi Rodriguez C+: Speed on top of Speed

11-Danny Salazar C+: Hard throwing RHP who had a good season in 2012

12-Scott Barnes C+: Solid BP potential guy

13-Jesus Aguliar C+: Huge DH guy, has shown good power and is starting to hit for average and get on base

14-Chen Lee: RHP good ground ball pitcher

15-Keiran Lovegrove C+: Has potential to be solid #2-#4 guy

16-Giovanny Soto C+: showed a ton of good stuff in AA but doesn't have fantastic stuff

17-Elvis Arujo C: one of the best pure arms in the system but cant stay healthy

18-Dillion Howard C: came to 2012 camp out of shape still got alot of gtound balls

19- Anthony Santander C: Young switch hitting 17 year old hit over .300 in AZL

20-Chris McGuiness C: Rule 5 pick had solid year at AA

Like you said BB, a lot of the teams top prospects are still multiple years away from the ML roster as Grant has had to restock the farm system starting in 2009 because the lack of depth that was created by bad drafting, bad prospect trading and bad development. Like the middle of the field that they are developing but the pitching after Bauer is very suspect as a lot of the guys are not close to being ready if they ever do become ready, looking at you Howard and Brown.

[browniebuck]

Let me preface this by saying that I don't necessarily want to trade Asdrubal Cabrera, especially since we still have him through 2014...but, if Arizona really wanted to work a deal to move one of their surplus of ML outfielders...we could potentially make the deal.

Cabrera goes to Arizona (they have him for another year at a savings over what they were to pay Upton) and may have to give up a prospect (not a top level, but 2nd level type of guy)
Justin Upton comes to Cleveland (we would have him under contract through 2015 for under $10 million this year and $14.5 million per for '14 and '15)

We would be able to advance our minor league shortstops up a level with Juan Diaz coming up to the ML level to be our backup/utility guy with Aviles starting at SS...or, they could get an older vet to fill that role.

This would give us a line-up that would be....
LF - Brantley
RF - Upton
DH - Swisher (could rotate the DH spot between Upton, Swisher, Reynolds, and Carlos)
C - Santana
1B - Reynolds
2B - Kipnis
SS - Aviles
3B - Chisenhall
CF - Stubbs

I know that this is VERY unlikely due to the fact that Upton is under contract for another 3 years, but they were talking about trading him earlier in the offseason. If they were able to pull this off...that line-up could put up some freaky numbers, not to mention the speed that the line-up would have with Brantley, Stubbs, Upton, Kipnis...

Just a thought...or dream, but who wouldn't like that???

[GeronimoSon]

Let me preface this by saying that I don't necessarily want to trade Asdrubal Cabrera, especially since we still have him through 2014...but, if Arizona really wanted to work a deal to move one of their surplus of ML outfielders...we could potentially make the deal.

Cabrera goes to Arizona (they have him for another year at a savings over what they were to pay Upton) and may have to give up a prospect (not a top level, but 2nd level type of guy)
Justin Upton comes to Cleveland (we would have him under contract through 2015 for under $10 million this year and $14.5 million per for '14 and '15)

We would be able to advance our minor league shortstops up a level with Juan Diaz coming up to the ML level to be our backup/utility guy with Aviles starting at SS...or, they could get an older vet to fill that role.

This would give us a line-up that would be....
LF - Brantley
RF - Upton
DH - Swisher (could rotate the DH spot between Upton, Swisher, Reynolds, and Carlos)
C - Santana
1B - Reynolds
2B - Kipnis
SS - Aviles
3B - Chisenhall
CF - Stubbs

I know that this is VERY unlikely due to the fact that Upton is under contract for another 3 years, but they were talking about trading him earlier in the offseason. If they were able to pull this off...that line-up could put up some freaky numbers, not to mention the speed that the line-up would have with Brantley, Stubbs, Upton, Kipnis...

Just a thought...or dream, but who wouldn't like that???

Probably the D-Bax...the Indians and their fans would be absolutely thrilled!!

While the money side of the equation favors the D-bax ($ 22 MM in their favor) and the delayed arrival of DiDi to the show would permit him the time needed to hone/sharpen his offensive skills, the D-Bax would want more than 'just' Asdrubal to make a trade of this nature.. More than likely, the DBax would want someone like Lonnie Chisenhall or Vinnie Pestano (or both) to move J-Up. This is a deal the Indians would never make. The DBax have set a price sooooo high on J-Up that the likelihood of a trade is almost nil. Some team will have to be soooooo desperate that they's dump their farm for that guy..

Is he worth it?. eyes of the beholder, babe..

But, you make an interesting point.. By adding one corner OF'er or, rather one bat, the lineup is extended to the point where this team should be able to score runs approaching 800 for the season.. With an offense like that, the SP's would only need to be major league average and the pen would have to be shut down/lights out for the Indians to contend..

btw.. better candidates for the Indians to make a trade for a corner guy or guys would be the St Louis Cardinals and or the Seattle Mariners...

[browniebuck]

Probably the D-Bax...the Indians and their fans would be absolutely thrilled!!

While the money side of the equation favors the D-bax ($ 22 MM in their favor) and the delayed arrival of DiDi to the show would permit him the time needed to hone/sharpen his offensive skills, the D-Bax would want more than 'just' Asdrubal to make a trade of this nature.. More than likely, the DBax would want someone like Lonnie Chisenhall or Vinnie Pestano (or both) to move J-Up. This is a deal the Indians would never make. The DBax have set a price sooooo high on J-Up that the likelihood of a trade is almost nil. Some team will have to be soooooo desperate that they's dump their farm for that guy..

Is he worth it?. eyes of the beholder, babe..

But, you make an interesting point.. By adding one corner OF'er or, rather one bat, the lineup is extended to the point where this team should be able to score runs approaching 800 for the season.. With an offense like that, the SP's would only need to be major league average and the pen would have to be shut down/lights out for the Indians to contend..

btw.. better candidates for the Indians to make a trade for a corner guy or guys would be the St Louis Cardinals and or the Seattle Mariners...

You are probably right...but if they need a SS (with enough defensive flexibility that I think he could play either 2B or 3B as well if they were to re-sign him) and they aren't 100% sure on Upton, it would be worth the phone call from Antonetti to 'Zona just to see exactly how much it would cost.

If Upton isn't doable, I would be okay with Jason Kubel (and a solid prospect or two) in return for Cabrera. Kubel is only under contract for 2013 (option for '14...but I am pretty sure it is mutual option at $1 mill...so if he is worth ANYTHING in '13, he would opt out)...at a $1 million higher contract than Cabrera, so Arizona would have to send something of somewhat significant value with Kubel to make this deal work.

If they are able to add a significant bat, as you said, it will significantly mask the starting pitching deficiency that we have...and our bullpen is still strong, so if the starters can get us through 6 or 7 innings with a tie or the lead, I like our chances a hell of a lot more than in the past couple years.

[OneTuzSea]

If you think Arizona would trade Upton for Cabrera and any of our "top" prospects you're out of your mind. They have no honest reason to trade him unless someone absolutely blows them away.

[browniebuck]

They have a surplus of outfielders...Upton is an outfielder. They have put his name out there, other teams are obviously interested.

Whether it be Upton or Kubel...they will move someone before the season begins, they have other needs...use the surplus of outfielders to fill those needs. We have a couple spots that we have depth and can afford to risk them in order to improve the offense. An offense with Cabrera and a question mark at DH is not better than an offense with Aviles and either Kubel or Upton...simple as that. Now is a great time to trade Cabrera...I have seen the light on that...we have another year of control on him, which makes other teams value him even more...2 years of a top 4 or 5 SS in the league to give up something that they have a surplus of??? Foolish not to at least explore.

[OneTuzSea]

They have a surplus of outfielders...Upton is an outfielder. They have put his name out there, other teams are obviously interested.

Whether it be Upton or Kubel...they will move someone before the season begins, they have other needs...use the surplus of outfielders to fill those needs. We have a couple spots that we have depth and can afford to risk them in order to improve the offense. An offense with Cabrera and a question mark at DH is not better than an offense with Aviles and either Kubel or Upton...simple as that. Now is a great time to trade Cabrera...I have seen the light on that...we have another year of control on him, which makes other teams value him even more...2 years of a top 4 or 5 SS in the league to give up something that they have a surplus of??? Foolish not to at least explore.

Upton isn't the kind of talent you just trade because you have a surplus. Kubel is the surplus. I can guarantee they have better offers than an out-of-shape shortstop and an average prospect. You're looking through Tribe-colored glasses.

[ottograham14]

If they are trading ACab it will be for pitching prospects at least the centerpiece will and not Jason Kubel/Justin Upton. I think if Zona offered Upton for ACab then they would do it in a heartbeat but that will never happen from Zona's part. It seems from everything I have read that they really like Didi and are going to give him the reigns this season for defense and then hope his bat with time comes around. I would imagine they are not looking for a SS with Cabrera's credentials at this time.

If ACab is going to get traded then I would be looking at a team like St. Louis to do it. They might realize during ST that Furcal isn't fully back and need to replace him anyways and be willing to give up one of the SURPLUS of Pitching prospects for him. I still think they will keep him though till at least the deadline to see if they are close to competing and if they are not then they will move him in a Hunter Pence type of deal at that time. Hopefully he is still playing at an All-Star level at that point if that does happen.

[prodigy]

Upton isn't the kind of talent you just trade because you have a surplus. Kubel is the surplus. I can guarantee they have better offers than an out-of-shape shortstop and an average prospect. You're looking through Tribe-colored glasses.

Tell AC I said hi. I mean if you know he's outta shape you must be hanging out with him on a daily basis.

[browniebuck]

Upton isn't the kind of talent you just trade because you have a surplus. Kubel is the surplus. I can guarantee they have better offers than an out-of-shape shortstop and an average prospect. You're looking through Tribe-colored glasses.

lol....after reading your comment, I see this

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/0...ing-upton.html

not saying that they will trade him (or even consider trading him to Cleveland...or for Asdrubal Cabrera), but they are definitely listening, which tells you that they have at least a little "buyers remorse" after giving him his 6 year $51.25 contract that was backloaded to give him $14.5+ for the last 2 years. I don't think that they want to pay HIM that much money. This year at just under $10 million, they can swing it...but if they move him this year, they get out from under $29 million for '14 and '15 (better to get out too early than too late).

Also...if they trade him rather than Kubel (a free agent after the '13 season), they could potentially have a LOT of money to spend over the next two years (or save depending on what their plan is). They aren't World Series contenders by any means...so they need to determine which direction they are heading.

I would be willing to give up quite a bit to have Upton added to our line-up (especially with Mike Aviles on the roster....a very solid bottom of the order hitter)...overall, Upton is just a more versatile offensive player than Cabrera...speed, RBI potential, and power.

[GeronimoSon]

lol....after reading your comment, I see this

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/0...ing-upton.html

not saying that they will trade him (or even consider trading him to Cleveland...or for Asdrubal Cabrera), but they are definitely listening, which tells you that they have at least a little "buyers remorse" after giving him his 6 year $51.25 contract that was backloaded to give him $14.5+ for the last 2 years. I don't think that they want to pay HIM that much money. This year at just under $10 million, they can swing it...but if they move him this year, they get out from under $29 million for '14 and '15 (better to get out too early than too late).

Also...if they trade him rather than Kubel (a free agent after the '13 season), they could potentially have a LOT of money to spend over the next two years (or save depending on what their plan is). They aren't World Series contenders by any means...so they need to determine which direction they are heading.

I would be willing to give up quite a bit to have Upton added to our line-up (especially with Mike Aviles on the roster....a very solid bottom of the order hitter)...overall, Upton is just a more versatile offensive player than Cabrera...speed, RBI potential, and power.

Brownie.. Doubt the Dbax and Indians hook up for a straight trade like that. It just seems unlikely. The key statement in the latest posting on MLB Tr is the 'change' subtley announced.. IDK what that means other than Towers may now be setting aside his demand for Andrus or Profar from the Rangers in trade. The Rangers have a stacked farm system including a heavy hitting corner infielder in Mike Olt. There are other talents that await, not the least of which could be a healthy Neftali Feliz? for the Dbax pen. The other target is the Mariners. With all the talk about Giancarlo, the M's would have to give up the farm for him. That is something Jack Z won't do. The Mariners have the depth and specs that should interest the Dbax. The only question will be, will that be the only move Jack Z makes if he acquires J-Up?.

This is where the Indians may be able to facilitate a deal to land a couple of pieces that could really help then in 2013 and beyond.. Any of Franky G, Gerrardo Parra and one of the Mariners and or Dbax pitching prospects would look mighty fine with Chief Wahoo on his sleeve...

What say you?..

[browniebuck]

Brownie.. Doubt the Dbax and Indians hook up for a straight trade like that. It just seems unlikely. The key statement in the latest posting on MLB Tr is the 'change' subtley announced.. IDK what that means other than Towers may now be setting aside his demand for Andrus or Profar from the Rangers in trade. The Rangers have a stacked farm system including a heavy hitting corner infielder in Mike Olt. There are other talents that await, not the least of which could be a healthy Neftali Feliz? for the Dbax pen. The other target is the Mariners. With all the talk about Giancarlo, the M's would have to give up the farm for him. That is something Jack Z won't do. The Mariners have the depth and specs that should interest the Dbax. The only question will be, will that be the only move Jack Z makes if he acquires J-Up?.

This is where the Indians may be able to facilitate a deal to land a couple of pieces that could really help then in 2013 and beyond.. Any of Franky G, Gerrardo Parra and one of the Mariners and or Dbax pitching prospects would look mighty fine with Chief Wahoo on his sleeve...

What say you?..

wouldn't mind that either, especially if we were able to do so WITHOUT giving up Cabrera (CP or Jimenez (ohhhhhh if someone would take him off our hands) would be losses that we could absorb).