Who loses/gains the most if advanced stats come 20 years earlier?

[Rain City]

Randy Johnson will go down as the greatest pitcher of all time in my book. (Not accused of PEDs)

WAR may look at Maddux in favor but it's still really close. Johnson will go down as the greatest in my book.

this has alway been a wonder to me.

hes as obvious of HGH candidate as they get. he was in his mid 30s and coming of herniated disc surgeries when he left SEA than won 4 CY seasons, this was during the zenith of the roid era when there was no testing... i dont have anything against randy, mad love for him in fact, its naive to think he never touched PEDs, if you open your eyes hes as obvious of a candidate as they come, and ive always wondered why he is not more widely speculated....

as far as nolan, i remember growing up with him being regarded as arguably the best pitcher of all time (naive).... i think in general fans are fascinated by power and get confused by the fact nolan was the best power pitcher of all time, who carried himself like a legend. but clearly there were better pitchers and much better pitching seasons than nolan ever had.

[WadeKobe]

well **** i was talking about when we were growing up. i don't care about some PSD poll

he was always held up as a standard in physically overpowering people but i always considered him to be somewhat of a novelty as well.

PSD is actually a very good indicator of popular opinion.

[old blue]

Let me start by saying that I am old school all the way. I don't need a jugs gun to see a kid is throwing hard, or a stop watch to see if a kid is fast. I can watch him and tell if he is good. Or not. Granted I can't watch a player everyday and make comparison to others, but you can tell who the players are. Stats are fun to play with and I guess vital if you are into fantasy stuff. If I am going to be involved in fantasy, it sure the hell won't be baseball lol. Stats are important, , but they don't tell the whole story

[jej]

Guarantee you can't tell HOW good a player is by looking at him. Maybe if he is "good" or "not", but not anything specific. Plus, it's all based on your opinion of what is good, and what makes a player good.

That's why stats are always better to judge a player. They take out all of the uneducated biased opinions and focus on what happened. And yes, it is what really happened. It's not fantasy at all. You saw a guy hit a HR? Well so did his SLG%, and wOBA and wRC+.

Difference is, they know how to accurately use it in their analysis.

[old blue]

Glad you know me and my background. Think a scout gives a rats *** about stats when they are looking at a prospect. Suppose Maris is one of the best power hitters ever, based on his stats and his record. As you say I saw a guy hit a home run. Etc. I also would like to see the pitcher. Stats are good and usefull but they don't always tell the whole story. Did stats tell you that tony Perez was a good hitter. But I would love to have him up with runners in scoring position. Don't need a stat book to figure that out. So a guy gets 3 seeing eyes hits and another lines out 3x. I know what your stats will tell you. Stats are useful for the agent and his client also, I stand by my statement that I don't need stats to tell if someone can play or not. Maybe my argument has more merit from the scouting , recruiting and coaching perspective but that is all I have to go by. Like I said I am not a stat geek or a fantasy league player or a sports reporter. I just know that they are useful to a point, but they don't tell you the whole story on how good a player is or what their abilities are.

[bagwell368]

Glad you know me and my background. Think a scout gives a rats *** about stats when they are looking at a prospect. Suppose Maris is one of the best power hitters ever, based on his stats and his record. As you say I saw a guy hit a home run. Etc. I also would like to see the pitcher. Stats are good and usefull but they don't always tell the whole story. Did stats tell you that tony Perez was a good hitter. But I would love to have him up with runners in scoring position. Don't need a stat book to figure that out. So a guy gets 3 seeing eyes hits and another lines out 3x. I know what your stats will tell you.

Most organization used advanced metrics, and a scout they brings up some hitter that can't a walk, they better have some other big time things to say about the guy, or he'll go off the boards.

Internatonal players are more likey to be accepted for great tools with flaws than a ollege kid.

Tony Perez was not a great hitter. He was a hitter with a lot of opportuntiesto drive in runs.

Like just about everything seeing eye singles get evened out over time.

Stats have take a huge hold in MLB, and it will never go back to the way it was, with subjective impresions and limited stats being the only benchmarks.

[bagwell368]

Guarantee you can't tell HOW good a player is by looking at him. Maybe if he is "good" or "not", but not anything specific. Plus, it's all based on your opinion of what is good, and what makes a player good.

That's why stats are always better to judge a player. They take out all of the uneducated biased opinions and focus on what happened. And yes, it is what really happened. It's not fantasy at all. You saw a guy hit a HR? Well so did his SLG%, and wOBA and wRC+.

Difference is, they know how to accurately use it in their analysis.

This is a bit too far IMO. While an average fan can get a lot more insight into who is worth what via advanced stats - the nuts and bolts of understanding you get from coaching tells you things stats cannot.

It isn't that it must be one or the other. Both together used at the right times tell you a lot more than just one of either.

[old blue]

This is a bit too far IMO. While an average fan can get a lot more insight into who is worth what via advanced stats - the nuts and bolts of understanding you get from coaching tells you thinks stats cannot.

It isn't that it must be one or the other. Both together used at the right times tell you a lot more than just one of either.

Exactly. Well put

[old blue]

Give you an example,when I was a young kid, I was at a phillies spring training game. There was young player there that was by far better than most of the others. That also was the same spring training game that mike Schmidt hurts his shoulder and delayed his entrance into the MLB. I was just a young kid and could figure out that he was special. Suppose his career stats pointed that out. Baseball is a great game and stats do have an important part of the game. No question about it, but you dont need them to tell you how good some one is

[Jamiecballer]

PSD is actually a very good indicator of popular opinion.

true but perceptions change over time and i was talking about a period of time long before the invention of the internet. what is talked about and believed today is not necessarily representative of what was talked about and believed in 1988.

[ciaban]

This is a bit too far IMO. While an average fan can get a lot more insight into who is worth what via advanced stats - the nuts and bolts of understanding you get from coaching tells you thinks stats cannot.

It isn't that it must be one or the other. Both together used at the right times tell you a lot more than just one of either.

no only sabermetrics or your an old fooggie who is out of date and needs to be put out to pasture! Coaching is for teaching, stats are for judging.

[bagwell368]

Give you an example,when I was a young kid, I was at a phillies spring training game. There was young player there that was by far better than most of the others. That also was the same spring training game that mike Schmidt hurts his shoulder and delayed his entrance into the MLB. I was just a young kid and could figure out that he was special. Suppose his career stats pointed that out. Baseball is a great game and stats do have an important part of the game. No question about it, but you dont need them to tell you how good some one is

The first two games I ever saw were Astros games in 1965. Jim Wynn was electric, HR, SB's. I was amazed. A couple of years later when I started to study stats like BA and RBI I started to think I must have been wrong about him. A few years later I forgot all about him. Then in the early 1990's I read Bill James first Abstract, and he gave me Jim Wynn back. I was right, he was a great player, perhaps a knife wound in the gut from his wife in 1969 away from the HOF.

[bagwell368]

no only sabermetrics or your an old fooggie who is out of date and needs to be put out to pasture! Coaching is for teaching, stats are for judging.

Pretty funny... I know a lot more about pitching after 14 years of coaching, than I did after being a fan, player, historian, SABR guy. More in terms of application, diagnosis of problems, ability to see ahead an inning or two or a start or two than before. I'll give up my advanced stats, the 100's of books I've read, and my coaching experiences when they are pried from my cold dead fingers.

[old blue]

I love these insightful thoughts. Coaching is teaching, it is also dealing with individuals and making judgements. You can make the best use of stats as possible, but you still must know the individual. Sometimes you must throw the book out the window and follow your instincts. But unless you have coached for sometime it is hard to understand. Give me that old foggie as you say and have some stats man there as an assistant and you can have the best of both worlds. Give me someone who follows the book at every step and I will show you someone who is easy to defeat. Ciaban, you should read the book. The art of war by sung tsu. (. Hope I spelled that right) It is required reading for many military leaders thru out the world. It would be very interesting , I think you would like it. Ps. I guess I Am a old foggie. 35 years of coaching,scouting working camps and having the privilege of being able to talk with many different types of baseball people. Not to mention all of the young adults that I have gotten to know over the years. I am no stranger to stats and their usage, but I put my efforts into the individual. But that is how this old fart rolls.

[jej]

All i am saying is when deciding who is better or how good someone is, I am gonna go with the facts every time over some guys opinion.