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  1. #1
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    A few thoughts on the organization's strategy moving forward...

    2nd generation contracts: I keep hearing that Sandy doesn't like to hand out second generation contracts. He obviously made an exception in David Wright's case (to avoid full blown fan mutiny, most likely), but he doesn't like to give them out in general. My question is this: if he doesn't give out 2nd generation contracts, then does that mean that when our payroll drops below a certain figure, say, $50m, that it will never go back over that total? How can you have a competitive payroll when you don't give out 2nd generation contracts? And how can you have a competitive team doing this? Does this mean that, for example, when Wheeler has only 1 year left, that Sandy's philosophy is going to be "let's try to flip him for a Syndergaard type prospect and a throw-in"? That sort of thing? I just don't get it. Because people keep saying our payroll will increase, but how will that happen without 2nd generation contracts?

    As an aside, people are always saying that you overpay when you write a 2nd generation contract, but I don't see how that is the case. Yes, you can get a higher WAR per dollar output from players in your farm system as opposed to big name free agents. But it seems to me, the extra price you pay for these big free agents is some reliability. There's always a chance that a player will be a bust (ala Jason Bay) but it's less likely than the chance that a mere prospect will bust.

    More about payroll: If the Mets truly expect to have cash to spend next off-season, then why couldn't they sign a player this off-season and backload a little extra money of the contract for next year and the year after? Or do something like that?

    We're told that the Mets are waiting until 2014 to make a splash in free agency, as we watch them refuse to sign any MLB free agent (only team that hasn't signed one).

    But here's the thing: we're missing 3 outfielders. Plus perhaps a 2B or if you want to go overboard, a SS as well. At the very least, we're missing 3 outfielders.

    That outfield situation doesn't get any better for a LONG time. The closest impact bat we have on the horizon is Nimmo, and he's several years away at least.

    So in order to be competitive, you're going to need 3 MLB quality outfielders. If the Mets intend on filling ALL of those holes next year, is that really a wise strategy? There ARE other teams in the league, other teams that ALSO need outfielders, and there aren't 20+ good outfielders to go around in free agency. So you ARE going to miss out on SOME of your targets in free agency no matter what you do. That's why I can't understand the idea of trying to fill these holes in one year...

    Far better idea would have been to snatch up ONE of those guys this year and then see what's available next year. What Sandy is doing (if this is what he is doing), well, it seems almost contradictory. He's basically backing himself into a corner by not filling any of our needs this year.

    These are just my humble thoughts, I would not be surprised if I'm wrong about a few things here, these are just my thoughts..

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by StoicSentry View Post
    2nd generation contracts: I keep hearing that Sandy doesn't like to hand out second generation contracts. He obviously made an exception in David Wright's case (to avoid full blown fan mutiny, most likely), but he doesn't like to give them out in general. My question is this: if he doesn't give out 2nd generation contracts, then does that mean that when our payroll drops below a certain figure, say, $50m, that it will never go back over that total? How can you have a competitive payroll when you don't give out 2nd generation contracts? And how can you have a competitive team doing this? Does this mean that, for example, when Wheeler has only 1 year left, that Sandy's philosophy is going to be "let's try to flip him for a Syndergaard type prospect and a throw-in"? That sort of thing? I just don't get it. Because people keep saying our payroll will increase, but how will that happen without 2nd generation contracts?

    As an aside, people are always saying that you overpay when you write a 2nd generation contract, but I don't see how that is the case. Yes, you can get a higher WAR per dollar output from players in your farm system as opposed to big name free agents. But it seems to me, the extra price you pay for these big free agents is some reliability. There's always a chance that a player will be a bust (ala Jason Bay) but it's less likely than the chance that a mere prospect will bust.

    More about payroll: If the Mets truly expect to have cash to spend next off-season, then why couldn't they sign a player this off-season and backload a little extra money of the contract for next year and the year after? Or do something like that?

    We're told that the Mets are waiting until 2014 to make a splash in free agency, as we watch them refuse to sign any MLB free agent (only team that hasn't signed one).

    But here's the thing: we're missing 3 outfielders. Plus perhaps a 2B or if you want to go overboard, a SS as well. At the very least, we're missing 3 outfielders.

    That outfield situation doesn't get any better for a LONG time. The closest impact bat we have on the horizon is Nimmo, and he's several years away at least.

    So in order to be competitive, you're going to need 3 MLB quality outfielders. If the Mets intend on filling ALL of those holes next year, is that really a wise strategy? There ARE other teams in the league, other teams that ALSO need outfielders, and there aren't 20+ good outfielders to go around in free agency. So you ARE going to miss out on SOME of your targets in free agency no matter what you do. That's why I can't understand the idea of trying to fill these holes in one year...

    Far better idea would have been to snatch up ONE of those guys this year and then see what's available next year. What Sandy is doing (if this is what he is doing), well, it seems almost contradictory. He's basically backing himself into a corner by not filling any of our needs this year.

    These are just my humble thoughts, I would not be surprised if I'm wrong about a few things here, these are just my thoughts..
    You and I are on the same page Stoic.

    Here's the thing: I completely understand them not spending money to become a better mediocre team this year. I get that. They have too many holes now to worry about spending for the present.

    The question of course is whether they will be buyers if and when the time comes that it is strategically beneficial to do so.

    I have my doubts.
    "Mr. Martin Tanner, Baritone, of Dayton, Ohio made his Town Hall debut last night. He came well prepared, but unfortunately his presentation was not up to contemporary professional standards. His voice lacks the range of tonal color necessary to make it consistently interesting. Full time consideration of another endeavor might be in order."

  3. #3
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    Has anyone on the Mets management "officially" said that there will be $$$$ to spend in 2014 or is this a fan assumption that the $$$$ available after Santana and Bay will be spent on a superstar OFer.

    I think that the Mets are run to make $$$$ and not necessarily to win championships and that the two are mutually exclusive. It isn't that they do not want to win, it's that they do not want to spend outlandish amounts to do so.

    A lot of fans seem to think that had Josh Hamilton been available next year, that the Mets would be in the thick of it in trying to sign him. I'm not so sure. I think the $$$$ is getting to regions that the Wilnotpons are not willing to travel to. These "2nd generation contracts" are getting into the stratosphere. If the Angels don't win with Pujols and Hamilton, it will be awfully easy to point out how these big signings guarantee nothing.

    It would not surprise me to see the Mets make minor signings next year but not the superstars. They are probably already drawing up the script of how to spint it for offseason 2013-14.

  4. #4
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    Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves. These teams build from within and have smart drafts. They don't all spend like the Yankees. Hell, not even the Yankees spent like the Yankees until relatively recently.

    If you have no hope then all I can say is to stop following the team. What else are you looking for? If being a Mets fan brings your life so much misery, just stop. If you look at things objectively, we're better off now than in 2008-2011. Were you all complaining this much back then?

    Just relax and watch baseball. Christ.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY_Heartbreak View Post
    Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves. These teams build from within and have smart drafts. They don't all spend like the Yankees. Hell, not even the Yankees spent like the Yankees until relatively recently.

    If you have no hope then all I can say is to stop following the team. What else are you looking for? If being a Mets fan brings your life so much misery, just stop. If you look at things objectively, we're better off now than in 2008-2011. Were you all complaining this much back then?

    Just relax and watch baseball. Christ.
    I know first hand that the Tampa Bay Rays have always been up front about how they run their franchise. They are clear that they cannot afford and will not pursue high priced free agents. They will draft smartly, move their guys up and trade them when they approach expensive contracts.

    I cannot speak for the other teams you mention.

    What frustrates Mets' fans is that they feel that they are being misled and lied to by the front office. They lead us to believe that when the time is right, they will sign FAs to improve the team.

    Many of us are not so sure about that.

  6. #6
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    I've followed this team for almost a half a century...

    The strategy is to get younger and more financially sound. Sandy is getting it done, and it doesn't happen over night. In fact, my hope is that Johan has a stellar comeback... so we can trade him mid season for a couple of more top prospects.

    Yup... we're going to have warm bodies out there for a couple of years, but soon both the prospects and the money will hit... like they did in the 80s. Hang in there, and Merry Christmas.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY_Heartbreak View Post
    Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves. These teams build from within and have smart drafts. They don't all spend like the Yankees. Hell, not even the Yankees spent like the Yankees until relatively recently.

    If you have no hope then all I can say is to stop following the team. What else are you looking for? If being a Mets fan brings your life so much misery, just stop. If you look at things objectively, we're better off now than in 2008-2011. Were you all complaining this much back then?

    Just relax and watch baseball. Christ.
    It was OK to lose a few years ago because at least the payroll was high.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by jomota48 View Post
    I know first hand that the Tampa Bay Rays have always been up front about how they run their franchise. They are clear that they cannot afford and will not pursue high priced free agents. They will draft smartly, move their guys up and trade them when they approach expensive contracts.

    I cannot speak for the other teams you mention.

    What frustrates Mets' fans is that they feel that they are being misled and lied to by the front office. They lead us to believe that when the time is right, they will sign FAs to improve the team.

    Many of us are not so sure about that.
    How are people being lied to? Do you think this entire idea of 2014 was just made up by most of the fan base?

    You can believe it or not. At the end of the day the plan was to rebuild the organization from the bottom up, get rid of the dead money contracts, and start over.

    To tell you the truth spending money was not going to get us out of the problem we were in (still in really) regardless of what you think of the Wilpons. You can't sign 2-3 all stars to pair with the team we had and still compete. It becomes a revolving door of having a poor baseball team.

    Our rotation was in shambles because Santana was always hurt and our 4th and 5th starter could never be consistent. We always had a problem in the bullpen.

    Just go look at our team stats from 2008-2010 and tell me if we were getting anywhere close to what we were paying for?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by jomota48 View Post
    Has anyone on the Mets management "officially" said that there will be $$$$ to spend in 2014 or is this a fan assumption that the $$$$ available after Santana and Bay will be spent on a superstar OFer.

    A lot of fans seem to think that had Josh Hamilton been available next year, that the Mets would be in the thick of it in trying to sign him. I'm not so sure. I think the $$$$ is getting to regions that the Wilnotpons are not willing to travel to. .

    It's Alderson's call
    .

    Obviously, ownership is involved in all major signings requiring mega-years and dollars. It's probably like that for every team. When has ownership ever told a GM, "no." They certainly have set some parameters here and there, but if the cash flow is decent and the return on the investment is sound -- based on the GM's recommendation -- I think ownership will make an honest effort. Obviously, that's speculation, but I see no reason to think otherwise.
    Last edited by Dugmet; 12-24-2012 at 05:59 PM.
    "The 90 wins is about challenge. It's about changing the conversation. It's about framing questions for ourselves as to how we get there. So I stand by the notion that we need to get better, and in doing so we need to set concrete goals for ourselves so that we have sort of specific conversations among ourselves about how we're going to get there." -- Mr. Alderson

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    You and I are on the same page Stoic.

    Here's the thing: I completely understand them not spending money to become a better mediocre team this year. I get that. They have too many holes now to worry about spending for the present.

    The question of course is whether they will be buyers if and when the time comes that it is strategically beneficial to do so.

    I have my doubts.


    They'll find some new excuses.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by StoicSentry View Post
    2nd generation contracts: I keep hearing that Sandy doesn't like to hand out second generation contracts. He obviously made an exception in David Wright's case (to avoid full blown fan mutiny, most likely), but he doesn't like to give them out in general. My question is this: if he doesn't give out 2nd generation contracts, then does that mean that when our payroll drops below a certain figure, say, $50m, that it will never go back over that total? How can you have a competitive payroll when you don't give out 2nd generation contracts? And how can you have a competitive team doing this? Does this mean that, for example, when Wheeler has only 1 year left, that Sandy's philosophy is going to be "let's try to flip him for a Syndergaard type prospect and a throw-in"? That sort of thing? I just don't get it. Because people keep saying our payroll will increase, but how will that happen without 2nd generation contracts?

    As an aside, people are always saying that you overpay when you write a 2nd generation contract, but I don't see how that is the case. Yes, you can get a higher WAR per dollar output from players in your farm system as opposed to big name free agents. But it seems to me, the extra price you pay for these big free agents is some reliability. There's always a chance that a player will be a bust (ala Jason Bay) but it's less likely than the chance that a mere prospect will bust.

    More about payroll: If the Mets truly expect to have cash to spend next off-season, then why couldn't they sign a player this off-season and backload a little extra money of the contract for next year and the year after? Or do something like that?

    We're told that the Mets are waiting until 2014 to make a splash in free agency, as we watch them refuse to sign any MLB free agent (only team that hasn't signed one).

    But here's the thing: we're missing 3 outfielders. Plus perhaps a 2B or if you want to go overboard, a SS as well. At the very least, we're missing 3 outfielders.

    That outfield situation doesn't get any better for a LONG time. The closest impact bat we have on the horizon is Nimmo, and he's several years away at least.

    So in order to be competitive, you're going to need 3 MLB quality outfielders. If the Mets intend on filling ALL of those holes next year, is that really a wise strategy? There ARE other teams in the league, other teams that ALSO need outfielders, and there aren't 20+ good outfielders to go around in free agency. So you ARE going to miss out on SOME of your targets in free agency no matter what you do. That's why I can't understand the idea of trying to fill these holes in one year...

    Far better idea would have been to snatch up ONE of those guys this year and then see what's available next year. What Sandy is doing (if this is what he is doing), well, it seems almost contradictory. He's basically backing himself into a corner by not filling any of our needs this year.

    These are just my humble thoughts, I would not be surprised if I'm wrong about a few things here, these are just my thoughts..
    I mostly agree. I like Murphy and think Tejada could improve. A team could win with them up the middle.

    Otherwise I think winning is of no importance to the Wilpons, making money is. They can easily be mutually exclusive. As you can see there will always be some fans that will defend the organization and buy tickets no matter how horrible the team is. Because of these fans revenue can only drop so low. If they sink payroll low enough to make up for the absence of the fans that demand good baseball, almost any team they put out will be profitable.

    Since SNY is part of basic cable, they probably get paid based on how many households get cable, not how many households actually watch the games.

    The Wilpons have more incentive to keep costs low than to spend to win - cutting costs is more certain than knowing the team you've built will win and draw fans. The advantage of being in a big market will therefore go towards pure profit for them rather than acquiring players to improve the team to make the fans happy.

    I think "meaningful baseball in September" will be arranged, even if they have to spend, when they launch the shopping mall across the street. Spending to put the team over the top will probably never happen as long as this family owns the team.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by metsbulls1025 View Post
    It was OK to lose a few years ago because at least the payroll was high.
    I assume you're serious with this statement?

    People are never satisfied...

    so instead of adding a couple top prospects who could be a huge help for at least the next 6+ yrs, maybe we should have resigned Dickey, signed someone like Cody Ross, and still missed the playoffs cuz we aren't even close to contending, but hey! It woulda been ok cuz like you said, it's ok to lose if we have a higher payroll.
    Last edited by bklynny67; 12-24-2012 at 10:35 PM.

  13. #13
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    Hey guys... maybe we should start giving out ridiculous contracts to guys like Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Jason Bay.... whatcha think?

    Dumb.... we're doing a great job rebuilding. At this point we'll have to wait and see if our young guys turn out good, and we could have a nice foundation of Wright, Ike, d'Arnaud, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, with Syndergaard joining in a couple yrs... I'm confident if these guys are all good-very good, we'll make some decent signings to help the team.

    What we've been doing hasn't been working, obviously.... let's try this and see what happens.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    You and I are on the same page Stoic.

    Here's the thing: I completely understand them not spending money to become a better mediocre team this year. I get that. They have too many holes now to worry about spending for the present.
    .
    OK, I understand what you're saying here, but I'm coming at this from a different angle.

    Yes, the team is mediocre. Agreed. Yes, no single player or even pair of players would make us a legit contender this year. Agreed again.

    However, what I'm saying is that if they do intend on being legit contenders sooner rather than later, then they should have picked up 2 or at least 1 meaningful free agent this year. I'm saying this because free agency is not a re-draft. Instead, you have limited options. So you have to pick up what you like whenever it becomes available.

    For example, let's say that there are 7 starting quality free agent outfielders next year. Each has a different combination of skills, and each has their own contract expectations.

    Of those, several would not be a match because they do not have the skill combinations the Mets are looking for (X amount of power or Y amount of speed, etc.). Of the remaining FA outfielders, several MORE would not be a match because even though they have the skills we're looking for, we do not feel like they provide a worthwhile value relative to other targets.

    So we go into the off-season with, perhaps, 1 guy as a primary target for the OF. And even then, maybe another team beats us to the punch. So we go with our backup plan, and we do get him, but we're not satisfied with the value he provides compared to the primary target.

    Result is that it still leaves us with 2 more holes in the outfield... and yet another wasted season. But if we had gotten 1 piece the year before, and added this 1 new piece, we're moving in the right direction.

    Basically Sandy is walking into this season without filling even 1 of the 3 holes in the outfield, and that is going to back him into a corner when it comes to future FA targets. At least if we got 1 guy on board for a multi-year contract, then we could add to that in 2014. But we're just passing the buck further down the road.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by StoicSentry View Post
    Basically Sandy is walking into this season without filling even 1 of the 3 holes in the outfield, and that is going to back him into a corner when it comes to future FA targets. At least if we got 1 guy on board for a multi-year contract, then we could add to that in 2014. But we're just passing the buck further down the road.
    Which OFer should we have signed this yr and for how much? I thought Swisher on a 3 or 4 yr deal would be nice but he got a pretty big contract. Almost as much per yr as Wright will get over the next 8 yrs.... no way we'd spend that much on someone like Swish.
    Last edited by bklynny67; 12-24-2012 at 11:14 PM.

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