Article Doubting the Vikings

[Bob_at_york]

But that game is against Green Bay. That’s good news. Recent history has taught the Packers there is no reason to fear Peterson.

He torched them for 210 yards less than a month ago. Green Bay still won. Minnesota ran the ball 28 times in that game. They threw it 25. That’s a ratio destined for disaster in the modern NFL.

The evident truth is that the most brilliant runner can’t replace a middling passer.

A runner is looking for contact. A receiver is looking for space. Done right, passing will always yield a higher average return on investment.

Let’s take the example par excellence, the New England Patriots. They have the third-best passing game in the NFL, and the eighth-best running attack.

The Patriots throw the ball about 55 per cent of the time, about the league average.

Tom Brady may be the best short passer in football history. A key part of his greatness is his ability to limit his ambition and trust his receivers to make up ground after the catch. Seventy per cent of Brady’s attempts this year have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

But Brady still makes an average return of 7.6 yards per passing attempt, including incompletions. How does he do that? His completion percentage dips as he gets a little more daring, and then spikes when he gets very ambitious. Brady completes nearly half his throws of more than 30 yards.

Clearly, opposing defences must think short (running) and mid-range (passing) when facing the Patriots, And then every once in a while, Brady torches them long.

That’s where 7.6 yards per comes from.

By contrast, the Patriots’ running game averages 4.2 yards per attempt.

Put this in Vegas terms — given those payoffs, who bets such low odds?

The Vikings do.

Their quarterback, Christian Ponder, has an almost identical completion percentage to Brady’s — 63.1 vs. 63.4. But his rate of return is far smaller. He averages only 5.9 yards per passing attempt.

Unlike Brady, he cannot connect on a long pass. He’s attempted only 30 passes of more than 20 yards this year, and completed only five.

Some of this is down to Ponder, some of it to his receivers. But one strongly suspects that most of it is down to a choice by opposing defences. History has proven that if you give Minnesota the short returns of running the ball, they will forgo the real payoff of passing.

That’s why the Vikings have passed for the fewest yards in the NFL this year (and it’s not even close).

Peterson’s rate of return is 6.3 yards per attempt. It’s a variety of fool’s gold, but he keeps getting the ball. Only Houston’s Arian Foster has more attempts. The result is a fantastically anemic offence. The Vikings rank 24th in yards per game.

If Ponder was Tony Romo or Cam Newton — both slightly above-average NFL quarterbacks — Minnesota would be different in two important ways.

Peterson wouldn’t be anywhere near a rushing record, and his team would win more games.

Link for full article: http://www.thestar.com/sports/footba...-success-kelly

[100%CHEESE FREE]

Link for full article: http://www.thestar.com/sports/footba...-success-kelly

Let me be the first to tell the guy who wrote this to take a long lick of larry. We just destroyed the best team in the AFC on the road. Bring on the Packers!

[vikings4lifebro]

Let me be the first to tell the guy who wrote this to take a long lick of larry. We just destroyed the best team in the AFC on the road. Bring on the Packers!

Goddamn right cheesefree. Bring on the Discount double check and the packers.


Oh and Marcellus Wiley and take a lick of larry. He said we were going to be the worst team in the league this year.

[nasthemasta]

Goddamn right cheesefree. Bring on the Discount double check and the packers.


Oh and Marcellus Wiley and take a lick of larry. He said we were going to be the worst team in the league this year.

Lol he wasn't the only one that said that prior to the season...i knew we'd be a very competitive team but i did not think we'd be 1 game away from the playoffs

[Kayfabe]

I thought they could 9-7 and possibly sneak in beacuse I actually think Ponder will be alright.

[ApolloInfinity]

This guy doesn't realize how the running game works. Running the ball "All Day" allows you to control the clock. That keeps the ball out of the offenses hands. Not to mention keeping your D fresh and their D tired. If you can run the ball and have a QB with a good 3rd down % then you can control the clock. You combine that with field position and 0 turnovers, that's a winning formula. Also keeping the ball out of Rodgers hands is a good idea.

Last time I checked points won you games not yards....good for the chiefs to have more passing yards then us...even if it all comes in garbage time.

[100%CHEESE FREE]

This guy doesn't realize how the running game works. Running the ball "All Day" allows you to control the clock. That keeps the ball out of the offenses hands. Not to mention keeping your D fresh and their D tired. If you can run the ball and have a QB with a good 3rd down % then you can control the clock. You combine that with field position and 0 turnovers, that's a winning formula. Also keeping the ball out of Rodgers hands is a good idea.

Last time I checked points won you games not yards....good for the chiefs to have more passing yards then us...even if it all comes in garbage time.

Yep and that's the other thing too, its not like we have a great passing game, but in a lot of our wins this season it has been enough to beat the 8 or 9 man fronts that AP has to face. Even if they are successful at slowing him down like Houston was, its likely they'll sacrifice too much and create opportunities to pass.

The other thing is not like we're in 2000 Ravens territory or anything, but our D is doing really well when they're not hung out to dry and spend all game on the field. Even if we're not quite as good up front as we've been in years past, the improvements in our secondary and even our LB corps (I have to say that Brinkley is playing better now than EJ was last year, Brink still has big shoes to fill but its pretty telling that EJ is out of the league) that's enabling us lately to just end drives and get Peterson back out on the field.

One of the thing's I've said in years past is that it was true, AP couldn't carry the whole team himself, and I think that's still true, because as good as he is he's not just doing it all himself. He has an improved offensive line (even if our guards are not doing well, can't understate what Kalil's arrival and Loadholt's resurgence has done for that group) and Jerome Felton to help him out, and a D that's no longer as ****ed up as our offense was (like it was in 2010 and 2011). All in all its not like we have the sure-fire Super Bowl winning formula or anything, but nobody can deny that what the Vikings are doing IS working, we have the Ws to prove it.

[FrankieFreakout]

As long as the QB is playing the way he is, I don't blame anyone for doubting the Vikings.

[debpasc]

Yes, what you said. And don't forget Walsh -- we don't have to be too far past mid-field to get points with him. And, have had more longfield starts for the opposition this year than I can remember given his kickoff power. All of that helps AP, Ponder and the "D" from shouldering it all. We may have the starts of an actual "team" instead of good guy or an allstar here and there.

[Phat Pat 94]

We've been doubted all year, I welcome this clown to try to rain on us.

[pacofunk64]

It's no surprise that once our WR's started to step up...*cough*Simpson*cough*...that our passing game has been much improved. I give credit to Simpson for not giving up because last week in Houston he had that great catch on the sidelines that he had no business catching.

[100%CHEESE FREE]

It's no surprise that once our WR's started to step up...*cough*Simpson*cough*...that our passing game has been much improved. I give credit to Simpson for not giving up because last week in Houston he had that great catch on the sidelines that he had no business catching.

Yeah, seriously that catch was Cris Carter good, good enough to make me want to re-sign the guy to another 1 year deal. Inconsistency has been his MO for most of his career, however a lot of things happened this year with his suspension and then his back injury. Doesn't change the fact that we need to go out and get some better WRs, however Simpson still has loads of potential and would be really great depth to have.

[ellesmeire]

Yeah resigning simpson would be an option along with adding another guy, still don't want Simpson starting at all.

[FrankieFreakout]

Simpson can be a guy. If he will come back on a similar deal, I'd take him. I wouldn't offer more money or years, though.

[natelpete]

Link for full article: http://www.thestar.com/sports/footba...-success-kelly

I can't seem to trust anyone who spells 'offense' as 'offence'.