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  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Never claimed to be an expert, or said that i knew more than them.
    By saying "screw rankings," you are definitely saying that you know more than the people who make the rankings. By saying "screw someone else's opinion," you are implicitly asserting the superiority of your own opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Like i said, If your looking at a trade package based on just rankings, you wont make a lot of deals.
    What other way do we have to assess prospects besides rankings and scouting reports? You're right that rankings aren't the only way to assess deals; it's not as if you would automatically trade the #2 prospect for the #1 prospect just because the rankings said so. The only reason I contextualized Simmons with a hypothetical prospect ranking is to say that by "who will do what and how talented he is," he's not in the same league as Profar, Bundy, or Taveras. I don't care what number they have in front of their name; I care that they are probabilistically more likely to be worth more than Simmons is over the course of their careers, based on talent and projection.

    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Didn't say the rankings were useless, i just said screw them if that's all your arguing arguing about, and that they dont necessarily mean anything when determining who will do what and how talented someone is..
    Not sure of the difference between "screw rankings" and "rankings are useless."

    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    none the less, i think we have the pieces to get a deal done, but if your argument is we dont have the top "prospects", you're kinda off.
    I still don't think I'm off to say that the Braves don't have the prospects. I think if we offered the Marlins the pick of any six prospects from our farm system (players under 130 AB or 50 IP in their careers) in exchange for Mike Stanton, they would reject the deal. And I think they would be right to do so. Stanton is a massively talented, hugely successful, ridiculously marketable commodity, who would command an insane price if traded. Other teams would offer more, and the Fish would want more.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    I never said I knew more than the baseball scouts. Not once! so I dont know where you got that from. I said anything outside of the top 5, maybe top 10 in any baseball prospect rankings is a crap shoot.
    As I said above, by discrediting the rankings, you are implicitly asserting the superiority of your own opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    anyone with any baseball knowledge can read numbers from a players performance the year before and put together a disputable rankings every year with no accountability of the actual results, which is pretty much what most baseball wirters do.
    If you think the writers make lists without accountability, you're wrong. And if you think they're based only on numbers, you're also wrong. These guys spend countless hours working the phones talking to actual sources who work for actual baseball teams. They go watch many of the players in person. AND they look at the numbers. They have a wealth of experience that we can never have as fans. They're also accountable; there's a reason why some lists are used and trusted more than others. I only really trust three sources: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels. The rest are pretty much hacks. Even Keith Law gets ridiculed a lot of the time. He still makes lists, but a lot of baseball people just ignore him. The accountability is there.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    I mentioned Medlen and Beachy not because these are the only two "the experts" missed on, but these are the ones I'm very familiar with. I'm sure there are plenty more talent they miss every year. The truth of the matter is, these experts miss more times than not in their prospect rankings.
    You're absolutely right that they miss more times than not. It's likely that out of my Profar, Bundy, Taveras group, only one will ultimately be a superstar, and at least one will probably flame out entirely. That's not a function of the rankings; it's a function of the fact that so very few minor-league baseball players ever amount to anything in MLB. And it's not as if Simmons is now immune to not panning out now that he's had 182 PAs in the majors. And I'd trade the probability distribution of Simmons' success which includes only very small superstar probability) for the franchise-defining possibilities of Profar, Bundy or Taveras in a heartbeat.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    Perfect example: Julio Teheran dominated AAA with a 2.59 ERA in 2011 and was the 3rd or 4th ranking prospect in baseball. he got killed in AAA the year after and is now ranked outside of the top 50, how convenient!
    "How convenient" that the writers get to revise their projections after a down year?! That's what you're doing, too. I bet if someone told you a year ago that you could trade Andrelton Simmons for Justin Upton straight up, you'd have done it without thinking. So don't give the writers demerits for hindsight, when you're relying on it just as much.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    It is not that hard to rank players when you have an abundance of data to look at on each player on every level on any teams' system.
    Oh, really? Maybe you have a really lucrative day job, but if you can do such a better job, I guarantee you every single MLB team has a job waiting for you.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    But their projections on player's future contributions has been below average year after year.
    Below average? What "average" are you comparing to?

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    something like over 68% of top pitching prospects in the minors never translate that success into the major leagues. Sorry, but with this failure rate, I will doubt prospect rankings!
    Okay, so you doubt prospect rankings. What are we supposed to use instead? YOUR opinion? Nice try. If you think you can project these guys at such a higher rate, I reiterate that there are 30 MLB jobs waiting for you and your talents. And in the context of the Simmons discussion, it's not like there's a magic like between "prospect" and "major-league player." Technically there is, but when it comes to risk and potential reward, Simmons is still very much a "prospect." We're not sure what we have in him, and expecting him to repeat his 2012 just because he had a strong small-sample season doesn't mean he's suddenly a 100% lock to be a star while guys like Taveras and Bundy are just maybes.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by HowFit View Post
    Would you guys package Simmons with other prospects for Stanton?
    Quote Originally Posted by beldugo View Post
    You won't trade Freeman+ for Stanton?
    Yes, to both, without a doubt. Four years of Freeman is well worth including extra prospects to upgrade to four years of Stanton. I might be stingier with the "extra prospects" in a deal involving Simmons, but when you're talking about a guy who has put up 13 WAR in just over two full seasons, there's not really much that's untouchable. The Marlins can demand an absolutely massive haul, and the other team would be justified in offering it.

  3. #123
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    Lets all to rtgthree not being GM. Also, if you're going to qoute someome, at least ask them to elaborate instead of trying to show your "superior" baseball knowledge. You take so much posts out of context, its getting annoying. Just because we state something, that doesnt mean we're proclaiming to be experts. Please stop qouting me if you're just.going to write something out of context
    Last edited by westside; 01-04-2013 at 01:58 PM.
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  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Lets all to rtgthree not being GM. Also, if you're going to qoute someome, at least ask them to elaborate instead of trying to show your "superior" baseball knowledge. You take so much posts out of context, its getting annoying. Just because we state something, that doesnt mean we're proclaiming to be experts. Please stop qouting me if you're just.going to write something out of context
    Dude......... How many times have I said this in different ways. It's been annoying! Glad I'm not the only one who notices it.

  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by SB75 View Post
    Dude......... How many times have I said this in different ways. It's been annoying! Glad I'm not the only one who notices it.
    Lol..it was getting out of hand
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  6. #126
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    Opinions are like !!!holes everyone has one! I dont agree with everyone on here and im sure everyone dont agree with thats why i like the site! I like the feedback and and different opinions!

  7. #127
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    There is an ignore function. Some disagree more strongly than others but I know for a fact that he's not the only that disagrees in that manner in terms of "twisting" things around.

  8. #128
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    Wondering if upton has any leverage to tell any team that trades for him, he will not sign an extension unless its with the braves! Not only will it be great for marketing but we will have young controlable after for 5 plus years all going into prime of there careers! Lineup will be scary good!

  9. #129
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    Upton has a no-trade list, so its some leverage.
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  10. #130
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    I can ignore somone as good as the next guy. when the "twisting" gets involved, its super annoying. But hey, its a forum. Not trippin about it.
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  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Lets all to rtgthree not being GM.
    On...what basis, exactly?

    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Also, if you're going to qoute someome, at least ask them to elaborate instead of trying to show your "superior" baseball knowledge.
    Or you can make yourself clear up front.

    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    You take so much posts out of context, its getting annoying.
    To take your own request, I'll ask you to elaborate on what exactly was taken out of context.

    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Just because we state something, that doesnt mean we're proclaiming to be experts.
    There are a lot of things you can state without claiming to be an expert. Stating that your own opinion is more valid than the opinions of people who are respected and paid to dedicate their lives to studying and writing about baseball (specifically prospects)...is not one of those things.

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by BRAVE KID View Post
    yea there are a couple of his at-bats on youtube in the winter league. I'm trying to find a recent one though, the ones that I found are about a month old.

    He looks good. Short compact swing.
    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Upton has a no-trade list, so its some leverage.
    Looks to me like something will get done. Its obvious the upton brothers want to be reunited! Hopefully it will be this year! The signing of cody ross was evidence there looking to deal before spring training there outfield is crowed!

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by rtgthree View Post
    On...what basis, exactly?



    Or you can make yourself clear up front.



    To take your own request, I'll ask you to elaborate on what exactly was taken out of context.



    There are a lot of things you can state without claiming to be an expert. Stating that your own opinion is more valid than the opinions of people who are respected and paid to dedicate their lives to studying and writing about baseball (specifically prospects)...is not one of those things.
    again, I dnt know where the hell I said my opinion is better than theirs, or when I said I knem more than them.
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  14. #134
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    u didn't say your opinion is worth more than anyone else's. you're just giving it. same as the 'gurus' with their rankings. same as rtg. problem is, rtg sides with someone he agrees with (as we all do), and thinks he's right (as we all do) but has to belabor the point and misattribute everyone else. the only time i ever see anything he freakin types is when he's being quoted by someone. but whatever, i gave up a long time ago. rankings are only good (as with ANY # or judging system) when used alongside OTHER methods of analysis. i hate these stupid 'sabermetrics' and numbers hacks who think stats exist in a blackhole, outside of everything else. they act like they're so superior because we don't blindly buy into everything someone says about everyone because their interpretation of numbers is somehow more relevant than other opinions. it seems hypocritical to accuse westside of holding onto his opinion... that's only what rtg's doing.

    i feel your pain, westside... i really do.
    Last edited by chipurmunki; 01-05-2013 at 02:52 AM.
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  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    again, I dnt know where the hell I said my opinion is better than theirs, or when I said I knem more than them.
    You didn't. But it's implicit in the point you're making, whether you see it or not. This began as part of a discussion about the relative value of players, specifically prospects. And I was trying to support my point by using "expert" prospect rankings. Your contribution to the discussion was to say, in short, "screw rankings." OK, fine.

    So what else do we have to support a point of view regarding a prospect? As far as I know, nothing except our own opinions. There's the experts and there's us. That's about it. No other sources I can come up with...am I wrong? Which leaves us two logical alternatives, given that you say "screw expert rankings."

    1) Our personal opinions are just as worthless as the expert ones. In which case the whole discussion is just pointless, since no one knows anything. If this is what you were trying to say, then I admittedly misinterpreted. If you do think this, though, this whole forum is pretty pointless.

    2) Personal opinions are not worthless, and are thus superior to expert ones. And since you're the one asserting this viewpoint, it's not a huge leap to think that you consider your own prospect opinion among the valid ones. Or do you just think that GoBraves' is valid but not your own.

    Basically what I'm getting at is this: if you invalidate expert rankings, what do you consider to be valid in such a debate? Either your own opinion or nothing at all, and either is problematic (as I outlined above).

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