Exactly and he was terrible in those 17 pa's
The Cult of Gattis
Still waiting, Frank.
But with that said, being the best defensive SS in the game isn't necessarily something to hang your hat on. The four best last season were Brendan Ryan, Clint Barmes, J.J. Hardy and Johnny Peralta by UZR (small sample size caution as always, because Johnny Peralta LOL). None of those guys were worth more than 3 WAR. Defense alone can get you places, but not to the superstar realm where guys like Profar, Taveras and Bundy have a good chance to reside.
IF Simmons hits, which is still an IF at this point—his 182 PA sample is just about as meaningless as Profar's 17 PAs, and it's still somewhat surprising that his minor-league numbers translated so well to the majors—then maybe he turns into Elvis Andrus, and he's a four-win player. Still nowhere close to the 6-7 win stratosphere where you might see Profar or Bundy or Taveras in 2015.
But Simmons had 2.2 WAR in 182 PAs last season, you say? Well, his defense last season was THAT good. We're talking three wins saved per 150 games. Now maybe he really is the greatest defensive shortstop of all time. I'll be the first to admit I've thought that watching him. But based on the TINY sample we've seen, UZR data is not only unreliable, it's potentially very misleading. The odds are still in favor of him regressing somewhat to the mean and still being a damn good defensive shortstop, but not three wins a year good.
So maybe there is a non-zero chance that he keeps hitting in the .750 OPS range AND keeps defending in the three-wins-per-year range. Then, he's a potential down-ballot MVP candidate. But at this point, I'm just playing the odds to take a top-three prospect in all of MLB over a guy who has never been even a top-three consensus prospect in the Braves system. And really, Simmons is still a prospect. His sample of 182 PAs and 426 defensive innings really doesn't "prove" anything. It certainly raises his stock, but I don't think any prospect expert would rank him above Profar, Taveras or Bundy right now. Probably a top-20 guy but not top-10, if I had to guess.
And if half the posters on the forum don't agree with me, that's their prerogative. I don't know how you can be so "certain" of this, but of course if you're right, that means half the posters would agree with me. Plus it turns out that an idea's popularity and correctness aren't always correlated.
remember these are the same experts that never saw good potential in guys like Medlen and Beachy. The same guys who had Jesus Montero and Dominque Brown ahead of guys like Chapman and Wil Myers in their rankings going into the 2011 season. a lot of times these rankings are popularity contests. I only pay attention to the top 5, maybe 10 and everything else is a crap shoot.
El Oso Blanco
The best comparison I could find is Adeiny Hechavarria, who also has Gold Glove written all over him, and posted a .788 OPS at Triple-A with a .645 OPS in a similar major-league sample to Simmons. I fully understand that Simmons is better than Hechavarria, but Hechavarria wasn't even named in the Marlins top 11 prospects by Baseball Prospectus. So you're going to go from there, add 100 points of major-league OPS that may or may not be real, and a little extra defensive ability...and suddenly you're talking about a top-10 prospect in all of baseball?!
So here's facts and cold hard comparisons against your unsupported opinion.
For example, I've got news for you: no one saw good potential in Brandon Beachy. Even the Braves didn't see fit to spend one of FIFTY draft picks on the guy. Nor did any of the other 29 teams. He was a middling middle reliever until they converted him to starting and something just clicked. These things happen. Jesus Montero still has a bright future ahead of him. Wil Myers had a breakout year and moved up. That's how these things work.
The rankings aren't perfect and never will be, and the fact that they're up for debate makes it even more fun. But what you're doing is far too lazy to be called debating. You're just copping out of your "Simmons would be top-10 because I said so" with an "and even if he weren't, what do the experts know anyway?" There's a reason the Astros hired Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus to run their scouting department. These guys know what they're talking about.
LOL, Gregor Blanco anyone?
Screw rankings. Simmons was supposedly an all glove, no bat player. But he has excelled at every level in both categories. Heywards ranking at #1 was pretty spot on. But Medlen, Beachy, Kimbrel, and Simmons weren't ranked the highest and look how they compare to the rest of the MLB. I look at talent when deciding who can bring what in a trade, not rankings. Not my argument tho so please don't quote me with a bunch of numbers and whatever. Just throwing me 5 cents in.
Last edited by westside; 01-01-2013 at 12:21 AM.
Simmons was never described as a "no bat" player, and it's not like he's been an offensive juggernaut. The experts I read projected him to be a player who'd hit just enough to make his glove valuable, and that's exactly what he's turned out to be. Freeman was a top-20 prospect, so I'm not sure what you mean about him not being ranked highly. Kimbrel was a borderline top-50 prospect, which is actually an awesome ranking for a relief pitcher, since relievers are inherently fungible.
And then yeah, congratulations for picking the two exceptions to the rule in Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. You can go back through my posting history and see that I've been comparing Medlen to Roy Oswalt for years now, but that was a specific disagreement that I had for a specific reason. I just believed in him, but rather than use that as an excuse to declare myself smarter than all the people paid to write about baseball, I just took it as a reasonable, well-defended difference of opinion. And Beachy, as I said above, if you saw an ace in him prior to 2010...I hand it to you, you're a genius, and you need a job in baseball ASAP.
I don't say that anyone around here has to take prospect rankings as The One And Only Truth or anything, but writing them off as completely useless compared to your opinion just illustrates that you haven't spent enough time reading scouting reports.
fw can take his time if the alternative are hacks.
HAWKS 13 PREMIERS
"We're under a level-5 quarantine, so I'm just gonna have to stripsearch you girls!"
I mentioned Medlen and Beachy not because these are the only two "the experts" missed on, but these are the ones I'm very familiar with. I'm sure there are plenty more talent they miss every year. The truth of the matter is, these experts miss more times than not in their prospect rankings.
Perfect example: Julio Teheran dominated AAA with a 2.59 ERA in 2011 and was the 3rd or 4th ranking prospect in baseball. he got killed in AAA the year after and is now ranked outside of the top 50, how convenient! It is not that hard to rank players when you have an abundance of data to look at on each player on every level on any teams' system. But their projections on player's future contributions has been below average year after year. something like over 68% of top pitching prospects in the minors never translate that success into the major leagues. Sorry, but with this failure rate, I will doubt prospect rankings!
Besides, Hanson was once the 4th best prospect in baseball and Francuoer was the Natural! Jeremy Hermida was a 4th best prospect, Andrew Miller 3rd best, Adam Miller 3rd best, Rocco Baldelli 5th best, Brandon Wood, deemed the next Cal Ripken 6th best (ranked higher than J. Upton and Troy Tulo), Corry Paterson 2nd Best, Joel Guzman 5th best (An expert said this about Guzman in 2005 "I have scouted Chipper and A-rod and Guzman's bat is much better to me", Lastings Milledge 9th best. A scout said "he's going to be an all star for years to come, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT". and of course our own Andy Marte the 9th best prospect in 2005.
Obviously these are from different years, but all within 5 years of each other all in the 2000s. I'm sure I can find 100 more. This is why we doubt them. Not just based on the ones they miss, but more importantly the ones they deem can't miss!
Happy New year to you and to all my fellow Braves fans.
El Oso Blanco
Love me some javy vazquez. Should take a flier on that. Just as an emergency of course.
I wouldnt be against signing vazquez as a fith starter and moving some pitching prospect for a legit outfielder with a few years of control.would love to have stanton on the team just dont think wren will trade pitching within the division?
The braves don't have the prospect depth to acquire Stanton. If he is in fact traded (and the Marlins would be stupid not to trade him within the year) it will be to someone with a much deeper farm system.
No, I'm not saying our farm system is bad. We just don't have much in the way of high upside talent compared to many other teams, especially with the bat. Pitching wise we tend to build up solid major leaguers but draft wise we seem to go more for the guys that top out at middle of the rotation talent to most scouts.