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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    I probably would too. But I would really "think about it" lol. which is something rtg said he would not even do. These trades should not be a no brainer for the Braves either as these prospects have not proven anything yet at the major league level. Profar was miserable at his short stint in the ML.

    For example if we did have a very good outfielder, I would not trade Simmons for Myers. So it really depends on the situation. Remember the Braves declined a trade for J. Upton because they did not want to part with Simmons.
    He had 17 PA's..

  2. #92
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    Exactly and he was terrible in those 17 pa's


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  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jon93405 View Post
    Javier Vazquez announced he wants to return to MLB.
    ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS JAVIER VAZQUEZ. But seriously.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    Yes, please tell me three "prospects" you would trade Simmons for without "thinking twice about it". I mean one-for-one trade. I dont think there is a prospect out there that is clearly THAT much better than Simmons at this point. its not like there is a Strasburg or Heyward or a Trout, Stanton in this group.

    I am also certain that whoever you pick to trade simba for, half of the posters in the forum will not agree with you. I have a feeling you will have Profar, Taveras, Myers will be your three. I think you underestimate Simmons and his potential to be the best defensive SS in the game for years to come.
    I was going to say Profar, Taveras and Dylan Bundy, actually, but Myers could sneak in there too. I sort of hate this discussion because now it's going to look like I'm hating on Simmons. I'm not. I wouldn't trade him for Justin Upton in a month of Sundays. I think he's going to be sweet, and what's more, I just frickin' love watching him play.

    But with that said, being the best defensive SS in the game isn't necessarily something to hang your hat on. The four best last season were Brendan Ryan, Clint Barmes, J.J. Hardy and Johnny Peralta by UZR (small sample size caution as always, because Johnny Peralta LOL). None of those guys were worth more than 3 WAR. Defense alone can get you places, but not to the superstar realm where guys like Profar, Taveras and Bundy have a good chance to reside.

    IF Simmons hits, which is still an IF at this point—his 182 PA sample is just about as meaningless as Profar's 17 PAs, and it's still somewhat surprising that his minor-league numbers translated so well to the majors—then maybe he turns into Elvis Andrus, and he's a four-win player. Still nowhere close to the 6-7 win stratosphere where you might see Profar or Bundy or Taveras in 2015.

    But Simmons had 2.2 WAR in 182 PAs last season, you say? Well, his defense last season was THAT good. We're talking three wins saved per 150 games. Now maybe he really is the greatest defensive shortstop of all time. I'll be the first to admit I've thought that watching him. But based on the TINY sample we've seen, UZR data is not only unreliable, it's potentially very misleading. The odds are still in favor of him regressing somewhat to the mean and still being a damn good defensive shortstop, but not three wins a year good.

    So maybe there is a non-zero chance that he keeps hitting in the .750 OPS range AND keeps defending in the three-wins-per-year range. Then, he's a potential down-ballot MVP candidate. But at this point, I'm just playing the odds to take a top-three prospect in all of MLB over a guy who has never been even a top-three consensus prospect in the Braves system. And really, Simmons is still a prospect. His sample of 182 PAs and 426 defensive innings really doesn't "prove" anything. It certainly raises his stock, but I don't think any prospect expert would rank him above Profar, Taveras or Bundy right now. Probably a top-20 guy but not top-10, if I had to guess.

    And if half the posters on the forum don't agree with me, that's their prerogative. I don't know how you can be so "certain" of this, but of course if you're right, that means half the posters would agree with me. Plus it turns out that an idea's popularity and correctness aren't always correlated.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    Remember the Braves declined a trade for J. Upton because they did not want to part with Simmons.
    Justin Upton doesn't have anywhere near the trade value of a Jurickson Profar or a Dylan Bundy. He's expensive already, with just three years of control left, and he's still quite risky with both injuries and poor performance rearing their heads. Notice the Rangers won't part with Profar to get Upton.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bravo95 View Post
    Still waiting, Frank.
    For what? If you're waiting for some kind of world-beating trade or signing, you might be better off rooting for the Bobcats to win the NBA title.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by rtgthree View Post
    ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS JAVIER VAZQUEZ. But seriously.



    I was going to say Profar, Taveras and Dylan Bundy, actually, but Myers could sneak in there too. I sort of hate this discussion because now it's going to look like I'm hating on Simmons. I'm not. I wouldn't trade him for Justin Upton in a month of Sundays. I think he's going to be sweet, and what's more, I just frickin' love watching him play.

    But with that said, being the best defensive SS in the game isn't necessarily something to hang your hat on. The four best last season were Brendan Ryan, Clint Barmes, J.J. Hardy and Johnny Peralta by UZR (small sample size caution as always, because Johnny Peralta LOL). None of those guys were worth more than 3 WAR. Defense alone can get you places, but not to the superstar realm where guys like Profar, Taveras and Bundy have a good chance to reside.

    IF Simmons hits, which is still an IF at this point—his 182 PA sample is just about as meaningless as Profar's 17 PAs, and it's still somewhat surprising that his minor-league numbers translated so well to the majors—then maybe he turns into Elvis Andrus, and he's a four-win player. Still nowhere close to the 6-7 win stratosphere where you might see Profar or Bundy or Taveras in 2015.

    But Simmons had 2.2 WAR in 182 PAs last season, you say? Well, his defense last season was THAT good. We're talking three wins saved per 150 games. Now maybe he really is the greatest defensive shortstop of all time. I'll be the first to admit I've thought that watching him. But based on the TINY sample we've seen, UZR data is not only unreliable, it's potentially very misleading. The odds are still in favor of him regressing somewhat to the mean and still being a damn good defensive shortstop, but not three wins a year good.

    So maybe there is a non-zero chance that he keeps hitting in the .750 OPS range AND keeps defending in the three-wins-per-year range. Then, he's a potential down-ballot MVP candidate. But at this point, I'm just playing the odds to take a top-three prospect in all of MLB over a guy who has never been even a top-three consensus prospect in the Braves system. And really, Simmons is still a prospect. His sample of 182 PAs and 426 defensive innings really doesn't "prove" anything. It certainly raises his stock, but I don't think any prospect expert would rank him above Profar, Taveras or Bundy right now. Probably a top-20 guy but not top-10, if I had to guess.

    And if half the posters on the forum don't agree with me, that's their prerogative. I don't know how you can be so "certain" of this, but of course if you're right, that means half the posters would agree with me. Plus it turns out that an idea's popularity and correctness aren't always correlated.



    Justin Upton doesn't have anywhere near the trade value of a Jurickson Profar or a Dylan Bundy. He's expensive already, with just three years of control left, and he's still quite risky with both injuries and poor performance rearing their heads. Notice the Rangers won't part with Profar to get Upton.



    For what? If you're waiting for some kind of world-beating trade or signing, you might be better off rooting for the Bobcats to win the NBA title.
    No question in my mind that Simmons would rank top 10 in any reputable prospect rankings if he qualified this year. If so called scouts and experts knew about Simmons what they know now, he would rank in the top 10.

    remember these are the same experts that never saw good potential in guys like Medlen and Beachy. The same guys who had Jesus Montero and Dominque Brown ahead of guys like Chapman and Wil Myers in their rankings going into the 2011 season. a lot of times these rankings are popularity contests. I only pay attention to the top 5, maybe 10 and everything else is a crap shoot.
    El Oso Blanco

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    No question in my mind that Simmons would rank top 10 in any reputable prospect rankings if he qualified this year. If so called scouts and experts knew about Simmons what they know now, he would rank in the top 10.
    Unfortunately, there's no way to conclusively decide this debate, although I may reach out to a couple of the BP guys to see what they say. I'll just pose the following question: when was the last time you saw a guy with a .750 career OPS in the top 10 prospects? There have been plenty of good defensive players to come through the ranks, so it's not like Simmons is head and shoulders above the rest of the prospect world on that front.

    The best comparison I could find is Adeiny Hechavarria, who also has Gold Glove written all over him, and posted a .788 OPS at Triple-A with a .645 OPS in a similar major-league sample to Simmons. I fully understand that Simmons is better than Hechavarria, but Hechavarria wasn't even named in the Marlins top 11 prospects by Baseball Prospectus. So you're going to go from there, add 100 points of major-league OPS that may or may not be real, and a little extra defensive ability...and suddenly you're talking about a top-10 prospect in all of baseball?!

    So here's facts and cold hard comparisons against your unsupported opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBraves View Post
    remember these are the same experts that never saw good potential in guys like Medlen and Beachy. The same guys who had Jesus Montero and Dominque Brown ahead of guys like Chapman and Wil Myers in their rankings going into the 2011 season. a lot of times these rankings are popularity contests. I only pay attention to the top 5, maybe 10 and everything else is a crap shoot.
    Oh, so now you know everything and they don't? Hate to tell you, but they're actually pretty darn good in general. They're not always right, or even close, and you can pick out all the examples you want where they've been wrong. But it's a lot easier to throw stones than to build a glass house, and they do a much better job with ranking prospects than you or I could do. You can feel free to disagree with the rankings all you want, but if you're telling that you saw Beachy and Medlen coming, you really need to quit your day job and get into a front office. And if you're that smart, then you'd know enough to disagree with the rankings on a specific basis rather than just picking one or two mistakes off of lists that are often hundreds of players deep and saying you know better than all those know-nothings.

    For example, I've got news for you: no one saw good potential in Brandon Beachy. Even the Braves didn't see fit to spend one of FIFTY draft picks on the guy. Nor did any of the other 29 teams. He was a middling middle reliever until they converted him to starting and something just clicked. These things happen. Jesus Montero still has a bright future ahead of him. Wil Myers had a breakout year and moved up. That's how these things work.

    The rankings aren't perfect and never will be, and the fact that they're up for debate makes it even more fun. But what you're doing is far too lazy to be called debating. You're just copping out of your "Simmons would be top-10 because I said so" with an "and even if he weren't, what do the experts know anyway?" There's a reason the Astros hired Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus to run their scouting department. These guys know what they're talking about.

  7. #97
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    LOL, Gregor Blanco anyone?
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  8. #98
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    Screw rankings. Simmons was supposedly an all glove, no bat player. But he has excelled at every level in both categories. Heywards ranking at #1 was pretty spot on. But Medlen, Beachy, Kimbrel, and Simmons weren't ranked the highest and look how they compare to the rest of the MLB. I look at talent when deciding who can bring what in a trade, not rankings. Not my argument tho so please don't quote me with a bunch of numbers and whatever. Just throwing me 5 cents in.
    Last edited by westside; 01-01-2013 at 12:21 AM.
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  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by westside View Post
    Screw rankings. Simmons was supposedly an all glove, no bat player. But he has excelled at every level in both categories. Heywards ranking at #1 was pretty spot on. But Medlen, Beachy, Kimbrel, and Freeman weren't ranked the highest and look how they compare to the rest of the MLB. I look at talent when deciding who can bring what in a trade, not rankings. Not my argument tho so please don't quote me with a bunch of numbers and whatever. Just throwing me 5 cents in.
    What you're actually saying here is "I take my hindsight and pretend I knew that all along." I especially love the "please don't quote me with a bunch of numbers and whatever" part, because that essentially admits you aren't prepared to defend your position; you'd just like to pretend like you know more than a bunch of people that get paid for this sort of stuff (and hired by major-league teams, in many cases). Fair enough, but just understand how ridiculous that sounds.

    Simmons was never described as a "no bat" player, and it's not like he's been an offensive juggernaut. The experts I read projected him to be a player who'd hit just enough to make his glove valuable, and that's exactly what he's turned out to be. Freeman was a top-20 prospect, so I'm not sure what you mean about him not being ranked highly. Kimbrel was a borderline top-50 prospect, which is actually an awesome ranking for a relief pitcher, since relievers are inherently fungible.

    And then yeah, congratulations for picking the two exceptions to the rule in Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. You can go back through my posting history and see that I've been comparing Medlen to Roy Oswalt for years now, but that was a specific disagreement that I had for a specific reason. I just believed in him, but rather than use that as an excuse to declare myself smarter than all the people paid to write about baseball, I just took it as a reasonable, well-defended difference of opinion. And Beachy, as I said above, if you saw an ace in him prior to 2010...I hand it to you, you're a genius, and you need a job in baseball ASAP.

    I don't say that anyone around here has to take prospect rankings as The One And Only Truth or anything, but writing them off as completely useless compared to your opinion just illustrates that you haven't spent enough time reading scouting reports.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by rtgthree View Post
    What you're actually saying here is "I take my hindsight and pretend I knew that all along." I especially love the "please don't quote me with a bunch of numbers and whatever" part, because that essentially admits you aren't prepared to defend your position; you'd just like to pretend like you know more than a bunch of people that get paid for this sort of stuff (and hired by major-league teams, in many cases). Fair enough, but just understand how ridiculous that sounds.

    Simmons was never described as a "no bat" player, and it's not like he's been an offensive juggernaut. The experts I read projected him to be a player who'd hit just enough to make his glove valuable, and that's exactly what he's turned out to be. Freeman was a top-20 prospect, so I'm not sure what you mean about him not being ranked highly. Kimbrel was a borderline top-50 prospect, which is actually an awesome ranking for a relief pitcher, since relievers are inherently fungible.

    And then yeah, congratulations for picking the two exceptions to the rule in Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. You can go back through my posting history and see that I've been comparing Medlen to Roy Oswalt for years now, but that was a specific disagreement that I had for a specific reason. I just believed in him, but rather than use that as an excuse to declare myself smarter than all the people paid to write about baseball, I just took it as a reasonable, well-defended difference of opinion. And Beachy, as I said above, if you saw an ace in him prior to 2010...I hand it to you, you're a genius, and you need a job in baseball ASAP.

    I don't say that anyone around here has to take prospect rankings as The One And Only Truth or anything, but writing them off as completely useless compared to your opinion just illustrates that you haven't spent enough time reading scouting reports.
    Never claimed to be an expert, or said that i knew more than them. Like i said, If your looking at a trade package based on just rankings, you wont make a lot of deals. Didn't say the rankings were useless, i just said screw them if that's all your arguing arguing about, and that they dont necessarily mean anything when determining who will do what and how talented someone is.. none the less, i think we have the pieces to get a deal done, but if your argument is we dont have the top "prospects", you're kinda off.
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  11. #101
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    fw can take his time if the alternative are hacks.
    HAWKS 13 PREMIERS




    "We're under a level-5 quarantine, so I'm just gonna have to stripsearch you girls!"
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  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by rtgthree View Post
    Unfortunately, there's no way to conclusively decide this debate, although I may reach out to a couple of the BP guys to see what they say. I'll just pose the following question: when was the last time you saw a guy with a .750 career OPS in the top 10 prospects? There have been plenty of good defensive players to come through the ranks, so it's not like Simmons is head and shoulders above the rest of the prospect world on that front.

    The best comparison I could find is Adeiny Hechavarria, who also has Gold Glove written all over him, and posted a .788 OPS at Triple-A with a .645 OPS in a similar major-league sample to Simmons. I fully understand that Simmons is better than Hechavarria, but Hechavarria wasn't even named in the Marlins top 11 prospects by Baseball Prospectus. So you're going to go from there, add 100 points of major-league OPS that may or may not be real, and a little extra defensive ability...and suddenly you're talking about a top-10 prospect in all of baseball?!

    So here's facts and cold hard comparisons against your unsupported opinion.



    Oh, so now you know everything and they don't? Hate to tell you, but they're actually pretty darn good in general. They're not always right, or even close, and you can pick out all the examples you want where they've been wrong. But it's a lot easier to throw stones than to build a glass house, and they do a much better job with ranking prospects than you or I could do. You can feel free to disagree with the rankings all you want, but if you're telling that you saw Beachy and Medlen coming, you really need to quit your day job and get into a front office. And if you're that smart, then you'd know enough to disagree with the rankings on a specific basis rather than just picking one or two mistakes off of lists that are often hundreds of players deep and saying you know better than all those know-nothings.

    For example, I've got news for you: no one saw good potential in Brandon Beachy. Even the Braves didn't see fit to spend one of FIFTY draft picks on the guy. Nor did any of the other 29 teams. He was a middling middle reliever until they converted him to starting and something just clicked. These things happen. Jesus Montero still has a bright future ahead of him. Wil Myers had a breakout year and moved up. That's how these things work.

    The rankings aren't perfect and never will be, and the fact that they're up for debate makes it even more fun. But what you're doing is far too lazy to be called debating. You're just copping out of your "Simmons would be top-10 because I said so" with an "and even if he weren't, what do the experts know anyway?" There's a reason the Astros hired Kevin Goldstein from Baseball Prospectus to run their scouting department. These guys know what they're talking about.
    I never said I knew more than the baseball scouts. Not once! so I dont know where you got that from. I said anything outside of the top 5, maybe top 10 in any baseball prospect rankings is a crap shoot. anyone with any baseball knowledge can read numbers from a players performance the year before and put together a disputable rankings every year with no accountability of the actual results, which is pretty much what most baseball wirters do.

    I mentioned Medlen and Beachy not because these are the only two "the experts" missed on, but these are the ones I'm very familiar with. I'm sure there are plenty more talent they miss every year. The truth of the matter is, these experts miss more times than not in their prospect rankings.

    Perfect example: Julio Teheran dominated AAA with a 2.59 ERA in 2011 and was the 3rd or 4th ranking prospect in baseball. he got killed in AAA the year after and is now ranked outside of the top 50, how convenient! It is not that hard to rank players when you have an abundance of data to look at on each player on every level on any teams' system. But their projections on player's future contributions has been below average year after year. something like over 68% of top pitching prospects in the minors never translate that success into the major leagues. Sorry, but with this failure rate, I will doubt prospect rankings!

    Besides, Hanson was once the 4th best prospect in baseball and Francuoer was the Natural! Jeremy Hermida was a 4th best prospect, Andrew Miller 3rd best, Adam Miller 3rd best, Rocco Baldelli 5th best, Brandon Wood, deemed the next Cal Ripken 6th best (ranked higher than J. Upton and Troy Tulo), Corry Paterson 2nd Best, Joel Guzman 5th best (An expert said this about Guzman in 2005 "I have scouted Chipper and A-rod and Guzman's bat is much better to me", Lastings Milledge 9th best. A scout said "he's going to be an all star for years to come, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT". and of course our own Andy Marte the 9th best prospect in 2005.

    Obviously these are from different years, but all within 5 years of each other all in the 2000s. I'm sure I can find 100 more. This is why we doubt them. Not just based on the ones they miss, but more importantly the ones they deem can't miss!

    Happy New year to you and to all my fellow Braves fans.
    El Oso Blanco

  13. #103
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    Love me some javy vazquez. Should take a flier on that. Just as an emergency of course.


  14. #104
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    I wouldnt be against signing vazquez as a fith starter and moving some pitching prospect for a legit outfielder with a few years of control.would love to have stanton on the team just dont think wren will trade pitching within the division?

  15. #105
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    The braves don't have the prospect depth to acquire Stanton. If he is in fact traded (and the Marlins would be stupid not to trade him within the year) it will be to someone with a much deeper farm system.

    No, I'm not saying our farm system is bad. We just don't have much in the way of high upside talent compared to many other teams, especially with the bat. Pitching wise we tend to build up solid major leaguers but draft wise we seem to go more for the guys that top out at middle of the rotation talent to most scouts.

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