We should go after Dariel Alvarez

[NY_Heartbreak]

How do we know Wright's statistical jump from 2003 to 2004 wasn't due to steroids? It's just young players adjusting to the leagues and playing better.

He went from .274/.322/.435/.757 to .363/.404/.613/.1017

His whole career before he broke out looked like the initial stat line. It could be that he finally figured it out, but a statistical jump that large is a red flag, especially in international markets where there is more of an incentive to use PED's to make it to the major leagues, or at the very least get a large signing bonus.

[NY_Heartbreak]

The first line says it all:

Dariel Alvarez is a supposedly-24-year-old from Camagüey, Cuba

[YoungStuna]

I don't care. Even if he's 27 I'll still take him.

[NY_Heartbreak]

My point is that there is a high amount of risk associated with a player like this. If there is uncertainty about his age, there must be uncertainty about more complex matters like increased performance.

The Mets have a hard time paying a few million for an outfielder who has had years of experience and MLB statistics. I can't see them paying several million for an unproven international player.

That said, if there was a way to prove he's not juicing and really has matured as a ballplayer, then yes, I'd like the Mets to take a chance.

[YoungStuna]

My point is that there is a high amount of risk associated with a player like this. If there is uncertainty about his age, there must be uncertainty about more complex matters like increased performance.

The Mets have a hard time paying a few million for an outfielder who has had years of experience and MLB statistics. I can't see them paying several million for an unproven international player.

That said, if there was a way to prove he's not juicing and really has matured as a ballplayer, then yes, I'd like the Mets to take a chance.

It would be more concerning if he was like 28 and that jump happened. He's young enough to make that improvement. This is the type of risk the Mets need to make to speed up the rebuilding process.

[Nymfan87]

Without looking at what you posted, I KNEW you would say something ba about his plate discipline lol. I don't think it's a big issue and he's young enough to improve.

You don't think a 3-4% walk rate is a big issue? Young enough to improve? If the dude was 16, or even 19, I'd agree. But he's 24 and his BA-OBP spread was smaller than it was two years ago.

[YoungStuna]

You don't think a 3-4% walk rate is a big issue? Young enough to improve? If the dude was 16, or even 19, I'd agree. But he's 24 and his BA-OBP spread was smaller than it was two years ago.

He's being playing professional ball for years now which is arguably better competition than the minor leagues. As long as he's mashing, I don't really care how much he walks.

[YoungStuna]

We could go after the SS Diaz too, but I doubt they'd want to because of Tejada. But I think his upside is definitely higher.

[numbers-king]

High risk, low-reward, waste of money. Not at all that impressive IMO. SB numbers says he's probably another Cespedes defensively and nowhere near the offensive skillset based on the numbers I see. He's a guy you wouldn't mind throwing some sort of minor league offer and seeing if he can hit in AA first, but a multi-year deal? Terrible.

[YoungStuna]

High risk, low-reward, waste of money. Not at all that impressive IMO. SB numbers says he's probably another Cespedes defensively and nowhere near the offensive skillset based on the numbers I see. He's a guy you wouldn't mind throwing some sort of minor league offer and seeing if he can hit in AA first, but a multi-year deal? Terrible.

low-reward? He has been developing his power and hitting skills over the years and can be a 20+ HR bat while playing solid defense in RF. He's much younger than Cespedes.

[numbers-king]

low-reward? He has been developing his power and hitting skills over the years and can be a 20+ HR bat while playing solid defense in RF. He's much younger than Cespedes.

Yeah in the Mexican League. The Diablo Rojos ace tossing 88 mph against the Rangers a couple years ago was very impressive. . That entire team was a disgrace to top tier professional baseball.

[BradHolt4CYoung]

Yeah in the Mexican League.

I dont think the level of competition there is that much worse (if at all) than the minor leagues stateside. Maybe im wrong I dont know much about the quality of players in the Mexican league...but can it be much different than A/AA/AAA?

[numbers-king]

Mexican League is SIGNIFICANTLY worse than the Pacific Coast League. I see guys drop out of their ML deals and head to the Mexican League all the time and then rake .350 down there.

It's probably somewhere between High-A and AA except it's mostly older guys who have been spit out of an MLB system. The pitching is a disgrace. There are Team batting averages down there over .300. Diablos hit like .322 a couple years ago.

[YoungStuna]

Yeah in the Mexican League. The Diablo Rojos ace tossing 88 mph against the Rangers a couple years ago was very impressive. . That entire team was a disgrace to top tier professional baseball.

He's playing winter ball in Mexico, not the Mexican League. He plays pro-ball in Cuba.

[numbers-king]

My bad. You're right. Cuban league is a little better than Mexican league.

But still, where do you see anything about his defense? Cespedes would be worth only 1.0-1.5 more wins than Duda if he played in the NL with his defense. And Cespedes is a MUCH better offensive player than this guy in several areas. Cespedes is faster, stronger, and showed much more skill at the plate before he got picked up.